后危机时代矿产品价格趋势分析

通过对近50年来石油、铜、铝、镍价格变化趋势分析, 总结了矿产品价格长周期变化规律: 不变价格呈周期性下降趋势, 现价价格呈台阶状上升趋势。铜、铝、镍不变价格的绝对下降反映了人类技术进步带来生产效率的不断提高, 而石油不变价格的上升反映了资源稀缺程度对石油价格的重要影响; 由资源稀缺性决定的资源性商品的生产效率难以与其他商品生产效率同步提高, 必然以现价价格阶段性上涨实现价格平衡。结合矿产品成本、供需趋势和市场体系分析, 判断后金融危机时代矿产品价格平台为: 石油60～80美元/桶、铜3500美元/吨、铝2100美元/吨、镍14000美元/吨。

Mineral Commodity Prices Trend in the Late Crisis Times

Based on analyzing the price trends of oil, copper, aluminum, nickel in the past 50 years, this paper sums up the long cycle price tendencies. Constant price shows periodic downtrend, while present price shows stepwise uptrend. The absolute decline in constant prices of copper, aluminum and nickel reflects the increase of efficiency resulting from the progress of technology. On the other hand, the rise in constant price of oil shows that the scarcity degree of resources has great impact on oil price. Meanwhile, the scarcity nature of resources shows that the efficiency of commodities that depend on resources can hardly keep up with that of other commodities, so the balance can be realized only by raising present prices in phases. Through an integrated analysis of production cost, supply and demand, and market system, it is estimated that mineral prices platform in the post finance crisis times is as follows: oil should be $60 a barrel, copper $3500 per ton, aluminum $2100 per ton, and nickel $14000 per ton.