砂土地震液化的模糊概率评判方法

利用模糊数学中的模糊概率理论，建立了砂土地震液化的模糊概率综合评判模型。在此模型中，提出了模糊权重的概念，可充分考虑权重的模糊性，从而避免权重取值带来的不确定性。结合砂土地震液化特点，选取地震烈度、标准贯入击数、平均粒径和上覆有效压力作为主要评价影响因子，同时将液化程度划分为不液化、轻微液化、中等液化和严重液化4个等级，进而使其评判结果更为精细化。通过算例分析，表明文中方法对砂土液化评判的合理性与有效性。

Fuzzy probability comprehensive evaluation method for sand liquefaction during earthquake

According to the fuzzy probability theory in fuzzy mathematics, a comprehensive fuzzy probability evaluation model of sand soil liquefaction is presented. In order to consider the fuzziness of weight factor, the fuzzy weighted value is suggested to avoid the uncertainties while determining the weight factor. The following factors such as earthquake intensity, standard penetration number, mean diameter and effective over burden pressure are selected as the evaluating indices; and liquefaction grades are classified as the non-liquefaction, slight liquefaction, medium liquefaction and serious liquefaction in the evaluating model; so the evaluation results can be more precise. The theoretical model is successful applied to evaluating liquefaction of sand soils in practical engineering; and the rationality and effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through 22 examples.