Multidecadal Trends in Large-Scale Annual Mean SATa Based on CMIP5 Historical Simulations and Future Projections

Based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies (SATa) at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere (NH) and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere (SH) are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900–1944 and 1971–2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945–1970 and 2001–2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945–1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period (2001–2013), the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006–2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble (MME) projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) are 0.17 (0.29) °C, 0.22 (0.36) °C, and 0.11 (0.23) °C·decade⁻¹ in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.     

基于智能代理的网络管理系统研究

文章在分析网络管理应用需求和网络管理系统现状的基础上,提出了一种基于智能代理的网络管理系统模型,并设计了智能代理功能模块。     

通用网管代理自动生成系统的研究与实现

在分析网管代理功能和网管代理软件开发工具现状的基础上,提出了一种结构精简、平台无关的符合标准网管协议的通用代理自动生成系统模型,给出了该模型的设计方案,并分析了该方案实现中的技术难点,最后说明了基于该设计开发出的代理自动生成系统的实现和使用情况。     

网络管理协议SNMP和CMIP的比较分析

网络管理协议是计算机和通信网络管理的关键问题之一,简单网络管理协议(SNMP)和公共管理信息协议(CMIP)是两类重要的网络管理协议,论文针对这两种不同的网络管理协议分析它们在管理服务、对象操作、通信支持等方面的异同点,并讨论它们的应用及选择建议。     

Java与网管技术在工业控制中的应用

当今计算机和计算机网络与工业控制已不可分割，但是一些先进的计算机网络管理技术并没有及时应用于工业控制中，使计算机和计算机网络在企业的现实生产中不能完全发挥其作用。文中提出了将网络管理技术和Java应用于工业控制一种具体的实现方案，使基于Internet的开放式的企业生产管理成为可能。     

网络管理协议SNMP与CMIP的分析比较

随着电力通讯网规模的扩大 ,其网络结构也越趋复杂。建立高效的网络管理系统 ,选用何种网络管理协议是关键。对目前流行的两种网络管理协议SNMP与CMIP进行介绍 ,并分别从管理通信、功能、信息、管理模型等方面对两种协议加以分析比较 ,最后指出网络管理协议的发展趋势     

网络管理及策略

本文在阐述网络管理的功能和标准的基础上,着重讨论异构网的管理所存在的两个难分仲伯的网络管理协议:即SNMP和CMIP。对它们的异同进行了比较,还对其综合策略和发展趋势进行了探讨。     

当前通信网络管理发展趋势

介绍了通信网络管理发展的过程，对当前网络管理面临的问题进行了分析，并且对通信网络管理的发展方向和影响通信网络管理发展的新技术进行了分析和阐述。     

Future changes in wind energy resource over the Northwest Passage based on the CMIP6 climate projections

The preferential use of renewable energy sources such as wind power has been proposed as one of the most effective strategies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector. However, wind energy resources are vulnerable to climate change, which might have a huge impact on the area under consideration. In this research, we used the wind speed data obtained from the seven coupled global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantitatively analyze the differences in wind energy resource (WER) between the future and the historical period, geared toward understanding the impact of climate change on wind energy sources. Relevant results show that the future WER would decreases below 20% in the region south of the Northwest Passage, while would significantly increase in the north region of 72°N (specifically in the Beaufort Sea). Further, reports predict that by the end of the 21st century, if no interventions are made to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, the northern region's WER would increase even more with some grid points exceeding 30% and have a significant growth trend, but at the same time the intra‐annual variability in these region would also increase significantly with some grid points exceeding 140% of that in the historical period. Moreover, the maximum wind speed values would encounter a noteworthy increase of up to 20%, which will bring great challenge to the development of wind energy in these region. Although the current models still have great uncertainties in the future climate prediction, our work still has certain guiding significance for the future development of wind energy over the Northwest Passage.     

基于DSG的Agent Gateway研究与实现

本文介绍了研究Ａｇｅｎｔ Ｇａｔｅｗａｙ的必要性以及ＤＳＧ平台的特点,并阐述基于ＤＳＧ平台的Ａｇｅｎｔ Ｇａｔｅｗａｙ的通信机理及其实现的基本原理。