CMIP5多模式集合对江苏省气候变化模拟评估及情景预估

利用中国气象局所属的2 400余个台站观测资料制作的分辨率为0.25°×0.25°数据集中的气温、降水量资料评估了CMIP5中17个模式对于1961—2004年江苏省气温和降水量空间分布特征的模拟能力,筛选出了5个对江苏省气候特征模拟较好的模式。之后基于5个优选模式集合平均的结果预估了3种典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)下江苏省2006—2100年的气温和降水量变化趋势。结果表明:(1)全球耦合气候模式对江苏省的气温和降水量空间分布特征具有一定的模拟能力,并且模式集合平均的气温和降水量与观测资料的空间相关系数分别为0.85和0.93;(2)在低浓度路径(RCP2.6)、中浓度路径(RCP4.5)和高浓度路径(RCP8.5)3种温室气体排放情景下,江苏省2006—2100年的地表温度均呈现明显的增温趋势,并且苏北的增温幅度要高于苏南;(3)3种温室气体排放情景下,江苏省未来百年降水量均呈现出北方增多南方减少的趋势;(4)未来百年江苏省降水量随气温变化的趋势并不稳定,RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下降水量随气温的升高而增加,而RCP8.5情景下降水量随气温的增加而减少。     

Strain fields and mechanical response of a highly to medium fissured bentonite clay

This article presents the developments of an ongoing research aimed at modelling the influence of fissuring on the behaviour of clays. In particular, it recalls the main results of an extensive laboratory investigation on a fissured bentonite clay from the south of Italy and presents the data of a new investigation on the evolution with shearing of the strain fields developing within the clay, resulting from Digital Image Correlation (DIC). Element test results are analysed in the framework of continuum mechanics and linked to the clay fissuring features, once characterised using the Fissuring IDentity (F‐ID) chart. This article compares the bentonite behaviour with that of other fissured clays of different F‐IDs, highlighting the common behavioural features. Thereafter, the soil response at the macro level is related to the DIC‐derived strain fields evolving within the clay with loading. For this purpose, DIC was successfully used to investigate the deformation processes active in the fissured clay and the sources of the localisation phenomena. DIC is shown to provide indications of the extent to which highly to medium fissured clays element test results can be of use to model the clay behaviour according to continuum mechanics. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

裂隙岩体三维柔度张量的数值试验方法

在裂隙岩体二维柔度张量数值试验的基础上,建立了裂隙岩体三维柔度张量及其表征单元体积（REV）尺度研究的简化数值试验方法。首先根据岩体裂隙的统计参数及分布规律,运用蒙特卡罗方法在研究域内获得与实际岩体裂隙同分布的三维随机裂隙网络,提取位于不同方位的岩体试件,运用二维柔度张量的数值试验方法求出各个平面方向上的二维柔度张量,然后根据二维与三维柔度张量的拓扑关系,用数学方法求解裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。对于含3组正交全贯通裂隙的岩体,通过数值试验获得的柔度张量与理论解相比,其主对角线上各参数的误差在5%以内,表明该数值试验方法较为可靠。最后将此方法运用到小湾水电站工程中,确定左岸坝区裂隙岩体的应力REV为11 m×11 m×11 m,并获得该区域裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。     

Spatial scale effect on the upper soil effective parameters of a distributed hydrological model

Nonlinear dynamics and spatial variability in hydrological systems make the formulation of scaling theories difficult. Therefore, the development of knowledge related to scale effects, scaling techniques, parameterization and linkages of parameters across scales is highly relevant. The main purpose of this work is to analyse the spatial effect of the static storage capacity parameter H_u and the saturated hydraulic conductivity parameter k_s from microscale (sub‐grid level) to mesoscale (grid level) and its implication to the definition of an optimum cell size. These two parameters describe the upper soil water characteristics in the infiltration process conceptualization of the TETIS hydrological model. At microscale, the spatial heterogeneity of H_u and k_s was obtained generating random parameter fields through probability distribution functions and a spatial dependence model with pre‐established correlation lengths. The effective parameters at mesoscale were calculated by solving the inverse problem for each parameter field. Results indicate that the adopted inverse formulation allows transferring the nonlinearity of the system from microscale to the mesoscale via non‐stationary effective parameters. Their values at each cell and time step are in the range of zero to the mean value of the parameter at microscale. The stochastic simulations showed that the variance of the estimated effective parameters decreases when the ratio between mesoscale cell size and correlation length at microscale increases. For a ratio greater than 1, we found cell sizes having the characteristics of a representative elementary area (REA); in such case, the microscale variability pattern did not affect the system response at mesoscale. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于三维裂隙网络的裂隙岩体表征单元体研究

岩体表征单元体（REV）的研究一直是岩土工程中的重要问题。裂隙岩体REV是其内部复杂结构在尺寸效应上的体现,归因于岩体内裂隙系统的随机性。在三维网络模型的基础上通过计算体积节理数建立了确定岩体REV的方法。这种方法考虑了岩体内裂隙的三维空间密度的特征,采用体积节理数这一参数的收敛状况确定岩体REV的大小。建立了实际岩体的模拟裂隙系统,用一定大小的立方体来分割裂隙系统,统计不同立方体内的体积节理数,并将均值作为最终裂隙岩体的参数。将此参数作为裂隙岩体的属性,通过判别其收敛状况获得了岩体REV的尺寸。考虑了岩体不连续面的特征,建立了REV的分析模型,得出工程岩体的REV的尺寸是裂隙平均迹长的4倍的结论。     

大渡河丹巴水电站长大深埋软岩各向异性及宏观力学参数研究

研究了层状岩体各向异性以及宏观力学参数分析方法,提出基于大型岩土分析软件ADINA各向异性材料模块,采用分区分级宏观力学参数模拟分析方法,结合“代表单元体”理论思想,对丹巴水电站二云片岩进行了各向异性模拟和宏观力学参数分析,研究得到丹巴片岩不同片理倾角宏观力学参数以及各向异性特征变化规律。研究结果显示,丹巴二云片岩尺度增加,平行片理向、垂直片理向变形模量 、 收敛幅度不同步, 变化幅度随倾角增大而增大,收敛速率更高,水平向变形模量 趋势较平缓,泊松比的变化规律恰好与之相反;随片理面倾角增大,丹巴二云片岩力学参数趋于极限值规律明显。     

基于分维数的土体裂隙表征单元体估算

由于干湿循环、剪切或其它作用,自然界土壤表面发育着大量裂隙。裂隙相互连接形成网络,裂隙网络是一个随机无序的系统,常规统计方法描述裂隙的分布特征存在很大的难度。网状土体裂隙一般具有分形特征,可以用分维数来进行描述。用数码相机拍摄土体表面的裂隙,将其转换成灰度图像,并结合分形理论,建立了摄影法测定土体裂隙分维数的方法,得到了土体裂隙的分维数。根据表征单元体的物理意义,建立了基于分维数估算表征单元体的方法,并对实例进行了分析。研究表明：分维数随裂隙密度,裂隙宽度和次一级裂隙发育程度的增大而增大;表征单元体与裂隙的密度均匀性和隙宽均匀性相关,基于分维数估算表征单元体的方法简便可行。     

基于块体化程度确定裂隙岩体表征单元体

表征单元体（REV,或典型单元体）的存在是应用连续介质方法研究岩体问题的前提,因此,裂隙岩体表征单元体研究是岩体力学及岩体水力学中的一个基础问题,表征单元体的存在与否可以从不同物理参数的角度进行分析。从岩体块体化程度的角度对其存在性进行了较系统的分析,把岩体中由裂隙圈闭形成的孤立块体的总体积在岩体中所占体积百分比定义为裂隙岩体的块体化程度。介绍了GeneralBlock软件的基本分析过程,利用软件建立了三维裂隙岩体模型。根据国际岩石力学学会的裂隙分级,针对5个延展性级别、7个间距级别建立了35种岩体结构模型。利用GeneralBlock对这35种岩体进行了块体识别,分别讨论了这35种岩体结构的块体化程度随着模型范围变化的波动情况。由于所建立的岩体结构模型是随机的,对每种结构的每个研究范围进行了5次随机实现。结果表明,对所有的35种岩体,表征单元体的尺寸在4～8倍间距之间,不超过8倍间距。     

Understanding of hydraulic properties from configurations of stochastically distributed fracture networks

A systematic investigation of the effect of configurations of stochastically distributed fracture networks on hydraulic behaviour for fractured rock masses could provide either quantitative or qualitative correlation between the structural configuration of the fracture network and its corresponding hydraulic behaviour, and enhance our understanding of appropriate application of groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling in fractured rock masses. In this study, the effect of block sizes, intersection angles of fracture sets, standard deviations of fracture orientation, and fracture densities on directional block hydraulic conductivity and representative elementary volume is systematically investigated in two dimensions by implementing a numerical discrete fracture fluid flow model and incorporating stochastically distributed fracture configurations. It is shown from this investigation that the configuration of a stochastically distributed fracture network has a significant quantitative or qualitative effect on the hydraulic behaviour of fractured rock masses. Compared with the deterministic fracture configurations that have been extensively dealt with in a previous study, this investigation is expected to be more practical and adequate, since fracture geometry parameters are inherently stochastically distributed in the field. Moreover, the methodology and approach presented in this study may be generally applied to any fracture system in investigating the hydraulic behaviours from configurations of the fracture system while establishing a ‘bridge’ from the discrete fracture network flow modelling to equivalent continuum modelling in fractured rock masses. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.