紫金山东南矿段成矿期次、阶段浅析

通过对紫金山东南矿段铜钼(金)矿床地质矿化特征分析,指出铜钼矿化带主要赋存于花岗闪长斑岩的内外接触带,处于似斑状花岗闪长斑岩的上部,金矿化带赋存在表生氧化带的英安玢岩、隐爆角砾岩中。经过对矿石的组构特征、矿物生成顺序等特征分析,将矿床的成矿演化过程分为斑岩热液期、高硫化浅成低温热液期、表生氧化期三个主要矿化期次,进一步将斑岩热液期分为黑云母-钾长石化阶段、石英-绢云母化阶段、碳酸盐化阶段三个阶段;高硫化浅成低温热液期分为地开石化阶段、明矾石化阶段、硅化阶段三个阶段。研究结果为进一步研究矿床成因提供了依据。     

State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

黄浦江下游吴淞口站低潮位重现期研究

黄浦江为感潮河流,低潮位重现期的确定对黄浦江航道的设计具有重要意义。为了准确估计黄浦江低潮位的重现期,以黄浦江下游吴淞口站年最低潮位序列为例,在对样本进行三性审查的基础上,分别采用传统的数理统计方法和时变矩方法进行水文频率分析。结果表明:吴淞口站年最低潮位序列在1996年发生了变异;还现修正后的序列服从位置参数线性时变的GEV模型,低潮位存在缓慢的上升趋势;一致性条件下百年一遇低潮位约为0.261 m,在非一致性条件下其重现期增大为150 a。非一致性条件下的重现期增大说明黄浦江现有的航道设计标准偏安全,航道通航保证率提高。     

Modelling of black carbon statistical distribution and return periods of extreme concentrations

Eight datasets of 1-h black carbon (BC) concentrations measured in Warsaw agglomeration (Poland), at urban background and sub-urban sites, and in Racibórz, a small town in Upper Silesia district (regional background site) were analyzed to evaluate BC levels, daily profiles and statistical distributions of concentrations in Central-Eastern European region. The observed mean levels ranged from 1483 ng m⁻³ in suburban site during summer to 3358 ng m⁻³ in regional background site in winter. Observed diurnal patterns were bimodal in the locations dominated by traffic emissions, but unimodal, with elevated evening peak in individually heated residential area. Three theoretical frequency distributions were applied to fit analyzed datasets separately. The lognormal distribution was the most appropriate to represent the middle-range values, while the high concentrations were satisfactorily predicted by the type I two-parameter exponential distribution which was used to estimate the return periods of extreme concentrations for winter months.     

Attitude-behaviour dissonance regarding the importance of food preservation for customers

The aim of the study was to identify the importance of individual food product attributes (the use of preservatives, processing method, shelf-life period and nutritional value) as well as their relation to the purchase behaviour. To achieve this, consumer preferences were decomposed in conditions of full access to information, and data was compared with actual consumer behaviour related to making purchasing decisions in front of the store shelf. Based on data from 338 respondents, conjoint analysis and repeated ANOVA measurements were carried out, allowing to eliminate individual behavioural patterns. The results showed a dissonance between the consumers attitudes towards the attributes and their shopping behaviour. The processing method was the most important declared attribute for consumers, meanwhile this information was the least searched for during purchase. At the same time, shelf-life period marked as the least important was the main information searched for by consumers when shopping. The results also show a clear dislike towards the use of microwaves as a preservation method, while traditional thermal preservation was marked as the most positive for consumers. In addition, consumers were classified into 3 heterogeneous groups, identifying differences in the preferences of food attributes. The obtained results have practical value relating not only to the preferences of individual attributes, but also to their various variants. The results can be a guide for companies to properly label food products. The indicated dissonance illustrates the educational gap and related insufficient motivation to get to know the product before buying it. This is extremely important in connection with technological development and new food processing methods.     

Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.     

基于降噪时序深度学习网络的风电功率短期预测方法

利用风电场历史功率数据预测未来一段时间内的风功率,对保障电网安全稳定运行具有重要的意义。本文提出一种基于奇异谱分析SSA(singular spectrum analysis)和长短时记忆LSTM(long-short term memory net⁃work)网络的时序特征预测框架用于短期风功率的预测。首先通过SSA对历史风功率原始数据进行降噪处理,然后经过数据转换之后,以LSTM网络为基础进行预测模型的训练,最后通过某风电场提供的两个风机的历史功率数据进行验证。实验结果表明,奇异谱分析对风电场的历史数据具有良好的降噪性,SSA+LSTM模型在测试数据上取得了较好的预测性能,能够有效进行短期风功率的预测。     

平面阵列波导光栅波导模式参量的分析

用周期波导的方法分析平面阵列波导光栅(AWG)的本征方程及波导模式参数,结果表明波导传播常数是带状分布的,与波导间隔有关。分析结果对器件的优化设计有一定的指导意义。     

射孔完井出砂预测新模型及其在射孔优化中的应用

分析了射孔完井的油层出砂机理，以线弹性理论为基础，考虑变温应力和流体渗流作用的拖曳力影响，建立了一种新的射孔完井出砂预测模型。应用该模型研究射孔方位、射孔参数对油井出砂的影响，结果表明，深穿透射孔弹比大孔半径射孔弹能更好地避免孔道出砂，采用定向射孔能有效地减少油井出砂问题。其结果对砂岩油藏射孔优化设计具有一定指导意义。     

一种智能型的PCB产业需求预测方法

目前需求预测在整个印制电路板产业的生产活动控制中正扮演着越来越重要的角色。分析了影响印制电路板需求的因素和现有的预测方法,提出了一种适用于PCB产业需求预测的有效方法——遗传/BP—神经网络。实验表明该方法能够进一步改善印制电路板预测的准确度和减少生产成本的消耗。