Multiparameter evidence synthesis in epidemiology and medical decision-making: current approaches

Summary.  Alongside the development of meta-analysis as a tool for summarizing research literature, there is renewed interest in broader forms of quantitative synthesis that are aimed at combining evidence from different study designs or evidence on multiple parameters. These have been proposed under various headings: the confidence profile method, cross-design synthesis, hierarchical models and generalized evidence synthesis. Models that are used in health technology assessment are also referred to as representing a synthesis of evidence in a mathematical structure. Here we review alternative approaches to statistical evidence synthesis, and their implications for epidemiology and medical decision-making. The methods include hierarchical models, models informed by evidence on different functions of several parameters and models incorporating both of these features. The need to check for consistency of evidence when using these powerful methods is emphasized. We develop a rationale for evidence synthesis that is based on Bayesian decision modelling and expected value of information theory, which stresses not only the need for a lack of bias in estimates of treatment effects but also a lack of bias in assessments of uncertainty. The increasing reliance of governmental bodies like the UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence on complex evidence synthesis in decision modelling is discussed.     

浅谈普通高校体育改革的综合化趋势

以教育部2002年颁布的《全国普通高等学校体育课程指导纲要》为基础,结合多年的体育教学经验,对我国普通高校体育改革的综合化发展趋势的相关理论进行了探索与研究,并阐述了体育竟争与创新的综合化、体育目标和功能的综合化、体育技术和手段的综合化、体育场馆管理的综合化等理论。为我国普通高校体育教学与发展提供有益的参考依据。     

N-硝基-N-氨基(取代)甲酰-2,4,6-三氯苯氨类化合物的合成

合成了两种新型兼有植物生长调节剂和除草剂功效的N硝基 -N -氨基 (取代 )甲酰 - 2 ,4 ,6 -三氯苯氨类化合物 ,并经元素分析、红外光谱等证实了它们的结构 .     

高压微波催化合成肉桂酸甲酯

在硫酸铁铵的催化下 ,利用高压微波技术 ,快速合成了肉桂酸甲酯。最佳反应条件为 :甲醇和肉桂酸的摩尔比为 5 :1,催化剂用量为 2 .0g ,微波时间为 3min ,微波功率为 72 9W ,产率达93.8%。     

硫酸盐镀锌光亮剂高温载体的合成及性能研究

以正交实验法对硫酸盐镀锌光亮剂高温载体GZL-02的合成工艺条件进行了优化研究,并对其表面化学性能和电镀性能进行了测定.最佳合成工艺条件为,聚醚∶顺酐=1∶1.05(摩尔比),酯化温度75℃,时间2h.最终产物得率超过97%.     

可持续发展动态评价研究——以湖北省为例

在阐明可持续发展基本理论的基础上，根据省情，从经济、社会、资源、环境四方面构建湖北省可持续发展指标体系，针对小样本数据特点，运用灰色关联分析法、偏最小二乘回归对其可持续发展状况进行动态评价。     

双核铜(Ⅱ)与N,N,N′,N′-四〔2-(2-吡啶基)乙基〕(o,m,p)苯二甲酰胺配合物的合成与表征

通过酰氯与胺的作用合成了配体Ｎ,Ｎ,Ｎ′,Ｎ′－四〔２－（２－吡啶基）乙基〕（ｏ,ｍ,ｐ）苯二甲酰胺．该配体和铜（Ⅱ）配合,合成了三种新配合物,并以红外光谱、电子光谱、摩尔电导率、元素分析及核磁共振谱进行了表征．     

空间光通信ATP系统设计分析

空间光束捕获、跟踪、瞄准（ＡＴＰ）技术在空间光通信中具有重要地位。文中讨论了空间光通信系统中的ＡＴＰ伺服系统的结构,并对系统稳态设计和系统动态综合等关键问题进行了详细的分析和研究。     

建构区域文化认同的“影视叙事综合体”——以“京津冀协同发展”为视角

“京津冀区域协同发展”的历史机遇已然到来，而长期以来各成气象的文化形象影响了三地之间的融通和发展。打通文化根脉，营造共通的文化空间，建构区域文化认同，消解隔膜与屏障，是推动区域协同发展的当务之急。在大众传播时代，影视艺术是蕴藉文化，构建形象，传播共识的主要媒介类型。“影视叙事综合体”以影视艺术为传播载体，通过叙事行为、叙事故事、叙事话语、叙事反应等影视叙事功能建构区域文化认同的影像文化空间，提升区域文化形象，促进区域文化的融通和协同发展。     

Thinking about biology and culture: can the natural and human sciences be integrated?

Genomic analyses have shown that only 1.2 per cent of the genome is devoted to protein coding sequences (the most commonly invoked definition of genes), and that much of the remaining sequences are employed in regulation – that is, in responding to signals, first, from the immediate environment of the DNA, but ultimately from the distal environment – from the cytoplasm, from the environment outside the cell, and finally, from the environment beyond the organism. Such signals are not restricted to the simple physical and chemical stimuli that impinge directly on the DNA, on the surface of the cell, or even on the body as a whole: organisms with central nervous systems have receptors for forms of perception that are not only more complex but far longer range. Humans have especially sophisticated perceptual capacities, enabling them to respond to a wide range of complex visual, auditory, linguistic and behavioural/emotional signals in their extended environment. Research has recently begun to show that responses to such signals can extend all the way down to the level of gene expression. The question is this: to what extent are we witnessing (at last) a rapprochement between the natural science of biology and the human sciences of sociology and anthropology, and to what extent do the new promises of synthesis merely reflect an expansion of older reductionist aims, threatening once again to marginalize rather than incorporate the insights of cultural analysis? As in my earlier discussion of the nature/nurture debate (2010), my focus will be restricted to the Anglo-American context.