Climate readiness of recovery plans for threatened Australian species

The rapidly changing climate is posing growing threats for all species, but particularly for those already considered threatened. We reviewed 100 recovery plans for Australian terrestrial threatened species (50 fauna and 50 flora plans) written from 1997 to 2017. We recorded the number of plans that acknowledged climate change as a threat and of these how many proposed specific actions to ameliorate the threat. We classified these actions along a continuum from passive or incremental to active or interventionist. Overall, just under 60% of the sampled recovery plans listed climate change as a current or potential threat to the threatened taxa, and the likelihood of this acknowledgment increased over time. A far smaller proportion of the plans, however, identified specific actions associated with ameliorating climate risk (22%) and even fewer (9%) recommended any interventionist action in response to a climate-change-associated threat. Our results point to a disconnect between the knowledge generated on climate-change-related risk and potential adaptation strategies and the extent to which this knowledge has been incorporated into an important instrument of conservation action.     

Traditional agriculture in transition: examining the impacts of agricultural modernization on smallholder farming in Ghana under the new Green Revolution

Following the renewed effort at achieving a new green revolution for Africa, emphasis has been placed on modernizing smallholder agriculture through the deployment of improved inputs especially mechanized technologies. In Ghana, the government has in the last decade emphasized the provision of subsidized mechanized ploughing services to farmers alongside a rapidly growing private sector tractor service market. While mechanized technology adoption rates have increased rapidly, the deployment of these technologies has been without critical analysis of the impacts on production patterns and local agrarian systems. This paper examines the distributional impacts of agriculture mechanization on cropping patterns and farm sizes of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, and semi-structured interviews with smallholder farmers (n=60). Specifically, comparative analysis of the field sizes and cropping patterns of participant farmers prior to and after the adoption of mechanized technologies was conducted. In-depth interviews were used to contextualize the experiences of smallholder farmers toward understanding how mechanization may be impacting traditional agriculture. Our findings reveal a mechanization paradox in which farm sizes are expanding, while cropping patterns are shifting away from traditional staple crops (pearl millet and sorghum bicolor) to market-oriented crops (maize, rice and groundnuts). This transition we argue, has adverse implications on the cultural dimension of food security, the organization of social life, and climate change adaptation. We recommend a retooling of the current agricultural policy focus to ensure context sensitivity for a more robust battle against food insecurity.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

长江三峡柑桔的冻害和热害（二）

本文从柑桔冻害和热害的危害因子和指标等级划分的研究和选取入手,着重探讨了长江三峡地区(湖北境内)两害显著的时空变化特征、差异与关联性及对柑桔生产的影响;揭示了80年代以来冬暖春热的重大气候变化是使两害向“两极分化”的根本原因;讨论了三峡水利工程对两害时空格局的可能调整及减灾原理;最后提出了可能的对策。     

Exploring Chemical Variables in Ligustrum lucidum Ait. F. Tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in Relation to Air Pollutants and Environmental Conditions

Ligustrum lucidum Ait. f. tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in relation to atmospheric pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina. The study area receives regional pollutants and was categorized taking into account traffic level, industrial density, type of industry, location of the sample point in relation to the street corner, treeless condition, and topographic level. Dried weight/fresh weight ratio (DW/FW) and specific leaf area (SLA) were calculated, and concentrations of chlorophylls, carotenoids, total sulfur, soluble proteins, malondialdehyde (MDA), and hydroperoxy conjugated dienes (HPCD) were determined in leaf samples. Sulfur content correlates positively with traffic density and SLA correlates negatively with some combinations of the categorical variables; MDA correlates positively with topographic level and total protein concentration correlates negatively with treeless condition. On the basis of our results, traffic, location of trees, type of industry, situation of a tree with respect to others, and topographic level are the environmental variables to bear in mind when selecting analogous sampling points in a passive monitoring program. An approximation to predict tree injury may be obtained by measuring DW/FW ratio, proteins, pigments, HPCD, and MDA as they are responsible for the major variability of data.     

脆弱生态环境耦合下的贫困地区可持续发展研究

研究表明，中国贫困地区的分布与脆弱生态环境的分布存在一种地理空间意义上的耦合，这种耦合是一种非良性的耦合，存在着诸多问题并我着当地的社会经济发展，要改变这一现状，实现区域社会经济可持续发展，必须革新现有的贫困人口生存方式和社会经济发展模式，据此，本文提出了实现贫困地区社会经济可持续发展的战略措施应是依托现有的资源优势，推广生态农业技术，发展绿色食品和开展生态旅游。     

湖北省近期土地利用变化的遥感分析

土地利用，覆盖变化研究是全球变化研究的前沿和热点之一。采用遥感、GIS一体化技术．利用1989～1990年和1999～2000年获取的陆地资源卫星图像，建立了湖北省近10年来两个不同时期的同比例尺土地利用动态变化数据库，并对变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明，耕地减少了0．68％，林地减少了0．18％，各类建设用地总计增加了。7．92％．水域面积增加的幅度为3．01％。土地利用与土地覆盖变化的转型主要发生于上述4类之中．尤其是耕地与水域相互之间的转变比较频繁。动态度计算表明，土地利用变化最快的区域均处于大中城市及其周边地区；江汉平原、鄂东的大部分地区及鄂西的宜昌．土地利用变化较快；鄂西山区绝大部分、大别山区部分县及鄂东南幕阜山区的通山县，土地利用变化不大。     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识的调查研究

根据环境意识结构．设计了旅游管理部门环境意识调查问卷。其主要的指标体系包括：旅游环境知识水平、旅游环境态度、旅游环境评价和旅游环境行为四个方面。对指标体系各部分之间以及每一指标部分的每一题目之间的相对重要性进行权重的确定．而且对各部分的每道题目的各个选项予以赋分。基于权重和赋分．结合调查问卷的实际情况，设计了指标体系各部分评价模型和环境意识总体评价模型。以此来计算草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识水平的综合得分。经过分析得知，旅游管理部门环境意识模式是“环境知识制约型”模式。     

三江平原地貌因子及其主要环境地质问题

地貌因子有其不可替代的作用和功能,是决定环境的主要因子,是生态地质环境中最积极最活跃的主导支力条件;是生态平衡的重中之重;是生态地质环境的基础,并影响其它因子或成份.如地貌因子或成份发生了变化,其它因子或成份就会发生一系列连锁反应;地貌因子发生变化或失去平衡,其它因子也会发生变化或失去平衡.文本论述了三江平原地貌特征,详细地分析了地貌的作用,阐明了有关地貌的主要环境地质问题.