基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Three-dimensional finite element simulation of fracture propagation in rock specimens with pre-existing fissure(s) under compression and their strength analysis

A FORTRAN program, consistent with the commercially available finite element (FE) code ABAQUS, is developed based on a three-dimensional (3D) linear elastic brittle damage constitutive model with two damage criteria. To consider the heterogeneity of rock, the developed FORTRAN program is used to set the stiffness and strength properties of each element of the FE model following a Weibull distribution function. The reliability of the program is assessed against available experimental results for granite cylindrical specimens with a throughgoing, flat and inclined fissure. The calibration procedure of the material parameters is explained in detail, and it is shown that the compressive to tensile strength ratio can have a substantial influence on the failure response of the specimens. Numerical simulations are conducted for models with different levels of heterogeneity. The results show a smaller load bearing capacity for models with less homogeneity, representing gradual coalescence of fully damaged elements forming throughout the models during loading. The maximum load bearing capacity is studied for various combinations of inclination angles of two centrally aligned, throughgoing and flat fissures of equal length embedded in cylindrical models under uniaxial and multiaxial loading conditions. The key role of the compressive to tensile strength ratio is highlighted by repeating certain simulations with a lower compressive to tensile strength ratio. It is proven that the peak loads of the rock models with sufficiently small compressive to tensile strength ratios containing two throughgoing fissures of equal length are similar, provided that the minimum inclination angles of the models are the same. The results are presented and discussed with respect to the existing experimental findings in the literature, suggesting that the numerical model applied in this study can provide useful insight into the failure behaviour of rock-like materials.     

Effects of the geometry of two‐dimensional fractures on their hydraulic aperture and on the validity of the local cubic law

Flow through rough fractures is investigated numerically in order to assess the validity of the local cubic law for different fracture geometries. Two‐dimensional channels with sinusoidal walls having different geometrical properties defined by the aperture, the amplitude, and the wavelength of the walls' corrugations, the corrugations asymmetry, and the phase shift between the two walls are considered to represent different fracture geometries. First, it is analytically shown that the hydraulic aperture clearly deviates from the mean aperture when the walls' roughness, the phase shift, and/or the asymmetry between the fracture walls are relatively high. The continuity and the Navier–Stokes equations are then solved by means of the finite element method and the numerical solutions compared to the theoretical predictions of the local cubic law. Reynolds numbers ranging from 0.066 to 66.66 are investigated so as to focus more particularly on the effect of flow inertial effects on the validity of the local cubic law. For low Reynolds number, typically less than 15, the local cubic law properly describes the fracture flow, especially when the fracture walls have small corrugation amplitudes. For Reynolds numbers higher than 15, the local cubic law is valid under the conditions that the fracture presents a low aspect ratio, small corrugation amplitudes, and a moderate phase lag between its walls.     

基于概率积分法的采动坡体稳定性预测与分析

地下采煤会引起地表沉降、变形,甚至引发山体、河堤滑坡等地质灾害。采动坡体的稳定性研究一直是采矿工程中实际关心的问题。该文首先介绍分析了概率积分法移动变形稳态、动态预测模型以及基于极限平衡理论的单滑面采动坡体稳定性预测模型,提出了使用概率积分法结合Knothe时间函数对采动坡体稳定性进行预测分析的方法,并使用C#及XML Schema语言编制了相关的计算程序。最后,结合一个工程实例对采动坡体稳定性和动态变化过程进行了预测与分析,通过实测数据验证了提出方法的可行性,得出了采动引起的坡体下沉是影响坡体稳定性的主要因素,并提出了在坡体拉伸阶段进行注浆加固的方法。     

Solution for a plane strain rough‐walled hydraulic fracture driven by turbulent fluid through impermeable rock

The impact of turbulent flow on plane strain fluid‐driven crack propagation is an important but still poorly understood consideration in hydraulic fracture modeling. The changes that hydraulic fracturing has experienced over the past decade, especially in the area of fracturing fluids, have played a major role in the transition of the typical fluid regime from laminar to turbulent flow. Motivated by the increasing preponderance of high‐rate, water‐driven hydraulic fractures with high Reynolds number, we present a semianalytical solution for the propagation of a plane strain hydraulic fracture driven by a turbulent fluid in an impermeable formation. The formulation uses a power law relationship between the Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor and the scale of the fracture roughness, where one specific manifestation of this generalized friction factor is the classical Gauckler‐Manning‐Strickler approximation for turbulent flow in a rough‐walled channel. Conservation of mass, elasticity, and crack propagation are also solved simultaneously. We obtain a semianalytical solution using an orthogonal polynomial series. An approximate closed‐form solution is enabled by a choice of orthogonal polynomials embedding the near‐tip asymptotic behavior and thus giving very rapid convergence; a precise solution is obtained with 2 terms of the series. By comparison with numerical simulations, we show that the transition region between the laminar and turbulent regimes can be relatively small so that full solutions can often be well approximated by either a fully laminar or fully turbulent solution.     

Micromechanical approach to effective viscoelastic properties of micro‐fractured geomaterials

The aim of this paper is to formulate a micromechanics‐based approach to non‐aging viscoelastic behavior of materials with randomly distributed micro‐fractures. Unlike cracks, fractures are discontinuities that are able to transfer stresses and can therefore be regarded from a mechanical viewpoint as interfaces endowed with a specific behavior under normal and shear loading. Making use of the elastic‐viscoelastic correspondence principle together with a Mori‐Tanka homogenization scheme, the effective viscoelastic behavior is assessed from properties of the material constituents and damage parameters related to density and size of fractures. It is notably shown that the homogenized behavior thus formulated can be described in most cases by means of a generalized Maxwell rheological model. For practical implementation in structural analyses, an approximate model for the isotropic homogenized fractured medium is formulated within the class of Burger models. Although the approximation is basically developed for short‐term and long‐term behaviors, numerical applications indicate that the approximate Burger model accurately reproduce the homogenized viscoelastic behavior also in the transient conditions.     

RECENT TECTONIC DEFORMATION ANOMALY AND EARTHQUAKES IN GANSU-NINGXIA-QINGHAI AREA

1　IntroductionAccordingtogeologicalstructure ,theGansu Ningxia Qinghaiareabelongstothenortheastmar ginofQinghai Tibetblock .Thisareahasbeenpaidmuchattentionby geo specialistsinChinaandabroadbecauseofitssignificanttectonicmovement,itsintensiveseismicity ,anditsimportanceinearth quakehazardmitigation .IntheDevelopmentPro gramonNationalKeyBasicResearchesundertheProject“MechanismandPredictionofContinentalStrongEarthquakes”,themechanismsofcontinen talstrongearthquakesarestudied ,usinghypo…     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

浙西北江山─绍兴断裂带构造演化特征

江山—绍兴断裂带是中国南方最重要的构造带之一。它是江南陆块与华夏陆块神功运动形成的碰撞拼贴带。它表现出明显的多期变形、构造叠加的特征：神功运动形成近东西向平卧褶皱；印支运动沿断裂带有向北西强烈的推覆挤压。断裂带不同时期的活动反映了不同特征的构造环境，形成不同的构造变形特征，并对两侧的地质历史具有明显的控制作用。     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。