Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions. 相似文献
The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
If a magma is a hybrid of two (or more) isotopically distinctend-members, at least one of which is partially crystalline,separation of melt and crystals after hybridization will leadto the development of isotopic heterogeneities in the magmaas long as some of the pre-existing crystalline material (antecrysts)retains any of its original isotopic composition. This holdstrue whether the hybridization event is magma mixing as traditionallyconstrued, bulk assimilation, or melt assimilation. Once a magma-scaleisotopic heterogeneity is formed by crystal–melt separation,it is essentially permanent, persisting regardless of subsequentcrystallization, mixing, or equilibration events. The magnitudeof the isotopic variability resulting from crystal–meltseparation can be as large as that resulting from differentialcontamination, multiple isotopically distinct sources, or insitu isotopic evolution. In one model, a redistribution of one-thirdof the antecryst cargo yielded a crystal-enriched sample with87Sr/86Sr of 0·7058, whereas the complementary crystal-poorsample has 87Sr/86Sr of 0·7068. In other models, crystal-richsamples are enriched in radiogenic Sr. Isotopic heterogeneitiescan be either continuous (controlled by the modal distributionof crystals and melt) or discontinuous (when there is completeseparation of crystals and liquid). The first case may be exemplifiedby some isotopically zoned large-volume rhyolites, formed bythe eruptive inversion of a modally zoned magma chamber. Inthe latter case, the isotopic composition of any (for example)interstitial liquid will be distinct from the isotopic compositionof the bulk crystal fraction. The separation of such an interstitialliquid may explain the presence of isotopically distinct late-stageaplites in plutons. Crystal–melt separation provides anadditional option for the interpretation of isotopically zonedor heterogeneous magmas. This option is particularly attractivefor systems whose chemical variation is otherwise explicableby fractionation-dominated processes. Non-isotopic chemicalheterogeneities can also develop in this fashion. KEY WORDS: isotopic heterogeneity; zoning; hybrid magma; crystal separation; Sr isotopes; aplite; rhyolite相似文献
Dissakisites from Trimouns dolomite mine, France, have two kinds of single crystals: chemical-zoned and homogeneous types.
Back-scattered electron microprobe (BSE) images of these dissakisites reveal both Ca–Al rich dark zones and Fe-ΣREE rich bright
zones. Crystal structures of three dark and two bright zones in a chemical-zoned dissakisite and of a homogeneous zone in
unzoned dissakisite were refined to individual R indices (about 3.0–5.0%) based on 1,400 observed [|F0| > 4σF0] reflections measured with MoKα X-radiation using the single crystal diffractometer. The differences in brightness between
their BSE images arise from those in coupled substitutions of the elements occupying A2 and M3 sites. The main reason for
these differences is that ten-coordinated A2 polyhedra and M3 octahedra are directly linked through their shared edge, which
creates a great potential for making this coupled substitution. This zoning indicates that formation of the whole zoned crystal,
where each zone could be grown steadily with its crystallographic axes mutually parallel to each other, may be identified
as autoepitaxy. 相似文献