基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

黄土高原古植被与再造山川秀美

要想恢复秀美的山川,主要在于恢复被人类严重破坏的原始植被.黄土高原的原始植被到底是什么样子,学者们说法不一.孢粉分析是最重要的方法.目前,研究结果已揭示出黄土高原古植被在第四纪以来显示着时间上、空间上的变化.古土壤代表间冰期夏季风盛行的湿热气候,植被比较繁盛;黄土代表冰期冬季风盛行的干冷气候,植被凋凌.全新世中期5000～6000年前,现代间冰期气候最佳时期,半坡人生存之时,森林茂密并有亚热带植物入侵,但兰州一带1万年来一直保持着荒漠草原的面貌.因此,黄土高原植被的恢复应参照各地的原始植被并考虑现代气候条件,因地制宜地实施.在东南部可以恢复森林,中西部可以恢复森林草原,西北部只能种草恢复草原.     

图象的模型及其统计特性

本文对图象的统计特性及其适用模型作了分析。讨论了以前常用的平稳图象模型的缺陷,对实际图象的统计特性作了分析,认为它是非平稳的,不满足各态历经性,同时在空间上是高度相关的;讨论了相应的随机参数统计模型和描述性统计模型。指出作用于整幅图象的“全局”图象复原算法比每次只独立计算单个象元的“点”图象复原算法更为优越。     

Thaw modification of frost-fissure wedges,Richards Island,Pleistocene Mackenzie Delta,Western Arctic Canada

Thaw modification is the general process whereby frost-fissure wedges are modified during thaw, and by which frost-fissure pseudomorphs may develop. Specific processes of thaw modification are inferred from ice-wedge pseudomorphs, composite-wedge pseudomorphs and deformed sand wedges in the Pleistocene Mackenzie Delta: i.e. thermal erosion, collapse, subsidence, refreezing, loading, buoyancy, spreading, folding and shearing. Thaw modification is believed to result in selective preservation of pseudomorphs and wedges. Sand wedges are more likely to be preserved than are ice-wedge pseudomorphs or compositewedge pseudomorphs, because only those sand wedges that penetrate massive ice or icy sediments are prone to thaw modification. Furthermore, whereas ice wedges preferentially develop in ice-rich, fine-grained sediments (thaw-sensitive), their pseudomorphs appear to be selectively preserved in ice-poor, coarse-grained sediments (thaw-stable).     

Sedimentary evolution of a Late Pleistocene temperate red algal reef (Coralligène) on Rhodes,Greece: correlation with global sea‐level fluctuations

Autochthonous red algal structures known as coralligène de plateau occur in the modern warm‐temperate Mediterranean Sea at water depths from 20 to 120 m, but fossil counterparts are not so well‐known. This study describes, from an uplifted coastal section at Plimiri on the island of Rhodes, a 450 m long by 10 m thick Late Pleistocene red algal reef (Coralligène Facies), interpreted as being a coralligène de plateau, and its associated deposits. The Coralligène Facies, constructed mainly by Lithophyllum and Titanoderma, sits unconformably upon the Plio‐Pleistocene Rhodes Formation and is overlain by a Maerl Facies (2 m), a Mixed Siliciclastic‐Carbonate Facies (0·2 m) and an Aeolian Sand Facies (2·5 m). The three calcareous facies, of Heterozoan character, are correlated with established members in the Lindos Acropolis Formation in the north of the island, while the aeolian facies is assigned to the new Plimiri Aeolianite Formation. The palaeoenvironmental and genetic‐stratigraphic interpretations of these mixed siliciclastic‐carbonate temperate water deposits involved consideration of certain characteristics associated with siliciclastic shelf and tropical carbonate shelf models, such as vertical grain‐size trends and the stratigraphic position of zooxanthellate coral growths. Integration of these results with electron spin resonance dates of bivalve shells indicates that the Coralligène Facies was deposited during Marine Isotope Stage 6 to 5e transgressive event (ca 135 to 120 ka), in water depths of 20 to 50 m, and the overlying Maerl Facies was deposited during regression from Marine Isotope Stage 5e to 5d (ca 120 to 110 ka), at water depths of 25 to 40 m. The capping Aeolian Sand Facies, involving dual terrestrial subunits, is interpreted as having formed during each of the glacial intervals Marine Isotope Stages 4 (71 to 59 ka) and 2 (24 to 12 ka), with soil formation during the subsequent interglacial periods of Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 1, respectively. Accumulation rates of about 0·7 mm year^?1 are estimated for the Coralligène Facies and minimum accumulation rates of 0·2 mm year^?1 are estimated for the Maerl Facies. The existence of older red algal reefs in the Plimiri region during at least Marine Isotope Stages 7 (245 to 186 ka) and 9 (339 to 303 ka) is inferred from the occurrence of reworked coralligène‐type lithoclasts in the basal part of the section and from the electron spin resonance ages of transported bivalve shells.     

Giant submarine landslide grooves in the Neoproterozoic/Lower Cambrian Phe Formation, northwest Himalaya: Mechanisms of formation and palaeogeographic implications

Giant groove casts have been found in the upper Proterozoic to Lower Cambrian Phe Formation (Haimanta Group), a siliciclastic sandstone/shale succession in the Tethyan Zone of the Higher Himalaya tectonic unit. The grooves are among the largest linear erosion structures related to submarine mass-movements observed in the geologic record. They are up to 4 m wide, about 0.2 m deep and can be traced for more than 35 m without changing their character. The grooves are straight, subparallel to cross-cutting striations with shallow semi-circular cross-sections and well-defined superimposed minor ridges and grooves. Groove casts exist on the soles of several sandstone beds within a 73 m thick logged section, commonly associated with flute casts. Their characteristics were compared with several other types of ancient and modern submarine linear erosion structures. A sand-rich, non-channelized basin floor depositional environment is inferred from the lithofacies, the combination of sedimentary structures, the lack of coarse-grained pebbly facies, the lateral continuity of beds, and the lack of channel structures. The grooves probably formed by laminar debris flows/concentrated density flows dragging blocks of already lithified sediment across the basin floor. When the bedding is structurally rotated back to horizontal, the groove casts show consistent North–South oriented palaeocurrent trends, with South-directed palaeocurrent directions indicated by flute casts. These palaeocurrent orientations contrast with previous palaeogeographic reconstructions of this area, which propose sediment delivery from the South. We therefore suggest a new “double provenance” model for the spatial relationship of late Proterozoic to Early Cambrian strata of the Himalaya, in which Lesser and Tethyan Himalayan age-equivalent sediment was deposited in a connected basin, where the former received detritus from the South, and the latter from a hitherto unknown source in the North. One possible candidate for this northern source is the South China Block and an associated Neoproterozoic volcanic arc.     

Modeling households’ decisions on reconstruction of houses damaged by earthquakes––Japanese case study

In this study, households’ decisions on reconstruction of damaged houses were modeled, using questionnaire data in Japan. Characteristics of households’ decisions were investigated using parameter estimation results. The effects of subsidizing policy were evaluated as follows. First, subsidy for rebuilding may be effective for the households whose houses were heavily damaged. Second, there is a possibility that subsidy accelerated rebuilding of houses by the households having children. Third, subsidy for rebuilding may not be effective for elderly people’s households and households in depopulated areas.     

Implementation of reconstructed geomorphologic units in landslide susceptibility mapping: the Melen Gorge (NW Turkey)

In the international literature, although considerable amount of publications on the landslide susceptibility mapping exist, geomorphology as a conditioning factor is still used in limited number of studies. Considering this factor, the purpose of this article paper is to implement the geomorphologic parameters derived by reconstructed topography in landslide susceptibility mapping. According to the method employed in this study, terrain is generalized by the contours passed through the convex slopes of the valleys that were formed by fluvial erosion. Therefore, slope conditions before landsliding can be obtained. The reconstructed morphometric and geomorphologic units are taken into account as a conditioning parameter when assessing landslide susceptibility. Two different data, one of which is obtained from the reconstructed DEM, have been employed to produce two landslide susceptibility maps. The binary logistic regression is used to develop landslide susceptibility maps for the Melen Gorge in the Northwestern part of Turkey. Due to the high correct classification percentages and spatial effectiveness of the maps, the landslide susceptibility map comprised the reconstructed morphometric parameters exhibits a better performance than the other. Five different datasets are selected randomly to apply proper sampling strategy for training. As a consequence of the analyses, the most proper outcomes are obtained from the dataset of the reconstructed topographical parameters and geomorphologic units, and lithological variables that are implemented together. Correct classification percentage and root mean square error (RMSE) values of the validation dataset are calculated as 86.28% and 0.35, respectively. Prediction capacity of the different datasets reveal that the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters has a higher prediction capacity than the other. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters produces logical results.     

新疆北部库尔提蛇绿岩中角闪片岩的原岩恢复及其成因

库尔提角闪片岩产于库尔提蛇绿岩南部岩片中,与斜长花岗岩呈互层产出。这套角闪片岩的不相容微量元素组分显示了大洋中脊和岛弧玄武岩的双重特征,主要表现为大离子亲石元素(LILE)富集,高场强元素(HFSE)亏损以及平坦到亏损的轻稀土(LREE)配分模式。原岩恢复的结果表明,该角闪片岩的原岩为亚碱性的拉斑玄武岩类。库尔提角闪片岩亏损的LREE、高ε_(Nd)(t),以及关键元素比值(Th/Nb,La/Yb和Th/Yb)呈正相关都表明,其源区可能以MORB地幔为主,同时还伴有少量弧组分。因此,我们认为其形成于弧后盆地环境,同时推断该区弧后盆地存在一个二阶段的熔融演化模式:第一阶段,大约在晚古生代早期,古亚洲洋向西伯利亚板块发生北向俯冲,在会聚板块边界,弧火山岩被从含水的地幔楔中提取出来,留下一个亏损地幔;第二阶段,随着古亚洲洋板块持续消减,在中-晚泥盆世形成了库尔提弧后盆地,下部的亏损地幔发生了小比例的部分熔融形成了这套角闪片岩的原岩。     

Estimation of Contamination of ERS-2 and POSEIDON Satellite Radar Altimetry Close to the Coasts of Australia

It is broadly acknowledged that the precision of satellite-altimeter-measured instantaneous sea surface heights (SSH) is lower in coastal regions than in open oceans, due partly to contamination of the radar return from the coastal sea-surface state and from land topography. This study investigates the behavior of ERS-2 and POSEIDON altimeter waveform data in coastal regions and estimates a boundary around Australia's coasts in which the altimeter range may be poorly estimated by on-satellite tracking software. Over one million 20 Hz ERS-2 (March to April 1999) and POSEIDON (January 1998 to January 1999) radar altimeter waveform data were used over an area extending 350 km offshore Australia. The DS759.2 (5'resolution) ocean depth model and the GSHHS (0.2 km resolution) shoreline model were used together to define the coastal regions. Using the 50% threshold retracking points as the estimates of expected tracking gate, we determined that the sea surface height is contaminated out to maximum distance of between about 8 km and 22 km from the Australian shoreline for ERS-2, depending partly on coastal topography. Using the standard deviation of the mean waveforms as an indication of the general variability of the altimeter returns in the Australian coastal region shows obvious coastal contamination out to about 4 km for both altimeters, and less obvious contamination out to about 8 km for POSEIDON and 10 km for ERS-2. Therefore, ERS-2 and POSEIDON satellite altimeter data should be treated with some caution for distances less than about 22 km from the Australian coast and probably ignored altogether for distances less than 4 km.