Improving automobile insurance ratemaking using telematics: incorporating mileage and driver behaviour data

Transportation - We show how data collected from a GPS device can be incorporated in motor insurance ratemaking. The calculation of premium rates based upon driver behaviour represents an...     

Participating mass in colliding risers

One of the main challenges in estimating impact energy in collisions between marine risers is the assessment of the riser mass involved in the collision. Evidently the entire riser mass does not contribute to the collision. Hence, the question is: What is the equivalent riser mass which contributes to the impact energy? This article presents three different ways of estimating the riser mass participating in the collision energy. The first method is strictly experimental. The second method uses a numerical experiment together with system identification techniques. The third method is a strictly analytical method, which results in an asymptotically upper bounded estimate of the participating mass. Two risers are examined as case studies. The first riser is a 1 : 100 model scale riser used in collision experiments carried out at Marintek's towing tank in Trondheim, Norway. The second case uses a real world riser in use on the Troll B oil production platform operating in the North Sea. The proposed methods yield consistent and comparable results. Received for publication on Feb. 1, 1999; accepted on July 8, 1999     

Train-Track Interaction and Mechanisms of Irregular Wear on Wheel and Rail Surfaces

Summary High-frequency train-track interaction and mechanisms of wheel/rail wear that is non-uniform in magnitude around/along the running surface are surveyed. Causes, consequences and suggested remedies to relieve the problems are discussed for three types of irregular wheel/rail wear: (1) short-pitch rail corrugation on tangent tracks and large radius curves, (2) wheel corrugation as caused by tread braking, and (3) wheel polygonalisation. The state-of-the-art in modelling of dynamic train-track interaction in conjunction with prediction of irregular wear is reviewed.     

Maritime accident investigation and temporal determinants of maritime accidents: A case study

This paper presents the results of an investigation into temporal determinants of maritime accidents based on a data-set obtained from the proceedings of formal inquiries in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The results show that there is no statistically significant outcome between the probability for an accident and the time of watch. Thus the results do not confirm previous studies, which reported significant time of day effects.The outcome of this study indicates that marine inquiries can provide useful data for an analysis of underlying causes of maritime accidents. It is suggested that accident inquiries should be extended into the area of watch systems employed and should record the hours of work and of rest of the officers on the watch involved in a maritime accident.     

Mooring line tension observed through a maximum entropy spectrum

A method for measuring mooring line tension is proposed based on observation of the natural frequencies of the mooring line segment between the winch and the fairlead. The anchor line tension is observed through the string equation where an analytical expression for the line's eigen-frequencies is obtained. The tension is observed on line by utilizing a nonparametric system identification approach in which the peaks of a maximum entropy spectrum of the transverse acceleration measures of the vibrating string are automatically identified. The method is verified against full-scale data from the Troll B floating concrete oil production platform operating in the North Sea. Received for publication on Feb. 24, 1999; accepted on July 26, 1999     

Existence,relatedness and growth needs as mediators between mode choice and travel satisfaction: evidence from Denmark

Transportation - Understanding the link between mode choice and travel satisfaction is essential for promoting sustainable travel by expanding utility theory to include also the eudaimonic value of...     

Latent lifestyle and mode choice decisions when travelling short distances

In the quest for sustainable travel, short distances appear the most amenable to curbing the use of the automobile. Existing studies about short trips evaluate the potential of shifting from the automobile to sustainable travel options while considering the population as homogeneous in its preferences and its tendency to accept these alternative travel options as realistic. However, this assumption appears quite unrealistic and the current study offers a different perspective: the mode choices when travelling short distances are likely related to lifestyle decisions. Short trip chains of a representative sample of the Danish population in the Copenhagen Region were analysed, and more specifically a latent class choice model was estimated to uncover latent lifestyle groups and choice specific travel behaviour. Results show that four lifestyle groups are identified in the population: car oriented, bicycle oriented, public transport oriented and public transport averse. Each lifestyle group has specific perceptions of travel time (with extremely different rates of substitution between alternative travel modes), transfer penalties in public transport trip chains, weather influence (especially on active travel modes), and trip purpose effect on mode selection. Consequently, when thinking about measures to increase the appeal of sustainable travel options, decision-makers should look at specific individuals within the population and more sensitive individuals to comfort and level-of-service improvements across the lifestyle groups.     

An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development is presented by exploring the relationship between individual company’s rates and aggregated market rates, and thus assists in dealing with uncertainty and market volatility for a given business situation. In the second stage, a design of experiment approach is applied to highlight the influence of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model’s performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior model for business needs.     

Causes of casualties and the regulation of occupational health and safety in the shipping industry

The aim of this paper is to investigate maritime safety from an occupational hazards perspective as opposed to a maritime casualty perspective. It is recognised that safety in shipping should encompass casualties arising from accidents occurring in the course of performing normal seafaring duties, not just those arising from technical defects or maritime disasters. The paper discusses an investigation involving a survey of 19 flag states and two detailed studies of records kept at the Hong Kong and Singapore maritime administrations. The results indicate that occupational accidents account for a significant proportion of fatalities at sea. The statistics presented specify the ship types that are most at risk, as well as the types of occupational hazards that can most frequently lead to accidents and fatalities. The results of this study indicate voids in the process of investigating fatalities that relate to occupational accidents. These results also indicate inadequate investigation of events and causes. The creation of a database of such information could potentially be used for the development of appropriate regulations that could prevent fatal and non-fatal occupational accidents through regulatory processes.     

Passenger Perspectives in Railway Timetabling: A Literature Review

When looking at railway planning, a discrepancy exists between planners who focus on the train operations and publish fixed railway schedules, and passengers who look not only at the schedules but also at the entirety of their trip, from access to waiting to on-board travel and egress. Looking into this discrepancy is essential, as assessing railway performances by merely measuring train punctuality would provide an unfair picture of the level of service experienced by passengers. Firstly, passengers’ delays are often significantly larger than the train delays responsible for the passengers to be late. Secondly, trains’ punctuality is often strictly related to too tight schedules that in turn might translate into knock-on delays for longer dwelling times at stations, trip delays for increased risk of missing transfer connections, and uncertain assessment of the level of service experienced, especially with fluctuating passenger demand. A key aspect is the robustness of railway timetables. Empirical evidence indicates that passengers give more importance to travel time certainty than travel time reductions, as passengers associate an inherent disutility with travel time uncertainty. This disutility may be broadly interpreted as an anxiety cost for the need for having contingency plans in case of disruptions, and may be looked at as the motivator for the need for delay-robust railway timetables. Interestingly, passenger-oriented optimisation studies considering robustness in railway planning typically limit their emphasis on passengers to the consideration of transfer maintenance. Clearly, passengers’ travel behaviour is far more complex and multi-faceted and thus several other aspects should be considered, as becoming more and more evident from passenger surveys. The current literature review starts by looking at the parameters that railway optimisation/planning studies are focused on and the key performance indicators that impact railway planning. The attention then turns to the parameters influencing passengers’ perceptions and travel experiences. Finally, the review proposes guidelines on how to reduce the gap between the operators’ railway planning and performance measurement on the one hand and the passengers’ perception of the railway performance on the other hand. Thereby, the conclusions create a foundation for a more passenger-oriented railway timetabling ensuring that passengers are provided with the best service possible with the resources available.