New method for predicting full-scale power performance of pumpjet propulsion system based on statistical learning北大核心CSCD

[目的]针对“适配于螺旋桨的船尾线型+泵喷推进器”构成的船舶泵喷推进系统,提出一种基于统计学习的实船快速性预报新方法。[方法]以某大型水面船舶泵喷推进系统为对象,通过神经网络学习典型推进泵的推力系数图谱曲线,综合运用船-桨配合时的K_(T)-J曲线和船体-喷泵配合时的推力特性曲线,建立“仅需船舶阻力曲线就能实现船舶泵喷推进系统实船快速性预报”的新方法,并基于船模阻力试验、泵喷模型敞水试验及船体-泵喷自航试验的测量换算结果对实船推进性能的预报结果开展精度校验。[结果]校验结果表明:在航速18~30 kn范围内,船舶泵喷推进系统的自航转速、推力和功率的预报误差可控制在5.4%以内,其中设计航速附近的误差甚至小于2%;船体-泵喷的相互作用程度介于船-桨与船体-喷泵之间且幅值相对较小,推力减额系数为趋向于0的极小值,故船舶泵喷推进系统是介于桨轴推进系统和喷水推进系统之间的产物。[结论]该预报方法有利于提升船舶泵喷推进系统实船快速性预报的能力,可为新型舰艇泵类推进系统总体设计/研究提供参考。     

A citation network analysis of sustainability development in liner shipping management: a review of the literature and policy implications

ABSTRACT

Based on an analysis of 253 related papers drawn from the Web of Science database, this study examines holistic sustainability research in liner shipping management literature using a citation network analysis (CNA) approach followed by a qualitative analysis of findings. We identify four major research domains, namely shipping performance, port selection and management, shipping markets, and environment, as well as related sub-domains of shipping performance. We discuss the current research trends and focal issues in these domains with a focus on their implications for policy development. Our results indicate that while the sustainability discourse in the literature has developed and matured significantly over the last decade, generating valuable insights for practitioners and regulators alike, it still struggles with blurry terminology and a lack of holistic frameworks jointly addressing the different aspects of sustainability: Economic considerations of liner shipping are still the main concern, while environmental and social issues are less regarded in the academic discourse. Furthermore, we identify a dearth of studies rooted in managerial or economic theory. In this regard, our study provides insights on the scope of the holistic sustainability discourse in liner shipping management, its contributions to theory and practice, and its implications for the further development of policies addressing sustainability in liner shipping management. We advocate further construct development for sustainability in liner shipping, as well as empirical tests of the antecedents of sustainability practice adoption in the industry for future research.     

Commodity flow estimation for a metropolitan scale freight modeling system: supplier selection considering distribution channel using an error component logit mixture model

Freight forecasting models have been significantly improved in recent years, especially in the field of goods vehicle behavior modeling. On the other hand, the improvements to commodity flow modeling, which provide inputs for goods vehicle simulations, were limited. Contributing to this component in urban freight modeling systems, we propose an error component logit mixture model for matching a receiver to a supplier that considers two-layers in supplier selection: distribution channels and specific suppliers. The distribution channel is an important element in freight modeling, as the type of distribution channel is relevant to various aspects of shipments and vehicle trips. The model is estimated using the data from the Tokyo Metropolitan Freight Survey. We demonstrate how typical establishment survey data (i.e. establishment and outbound shipment records) can be used to develop the model. The model captures the correlation structure of potential suppliers defined by business function and provides insights on the differences in the supplier choice by distribution channel. The reproducibility tests confirm the validity of the proposed approach, which is currently integrated into a metropolitan-scale agent-based freight modeling system, for practical use.

     

Costs of air pollutants from shipping: a meta-regression analysis

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the external cost of air pollution from shipping by means of a meta-regression analysis, which has not been made before. Three pollutants, which were included in most of the primary studies, were considered: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxides (SO₂) and particulate matters with a diameter of max 2.5 micrometres (PM_2.5). All primary studies included damages of health and a majority added impacts on agriculture and estimated the cost of air pollutants by transferring cost estimates from studies on costs of air emissions from transports in Europe. Different regression models and estimators were used and robust results were found of statistically significant emission elasticities of below one, i.e. total external costs increase by less than 1% when emissions increase by 1%. There was a small variation between the pollutants, with the highest elasticity for PM_2.5 and lowest for NO_x. Calculations of the marginal external cost of the pollutants showed the same pattern, with this cost being approximately six times higher for PM_2.5 than for the other pollutants. Common to all pollutants was that the marginal external cost decreases when emission increases. Another robust result was a significant increase in the cost of studies published in journals compared with other publication outlets. These findings point out some caution when transferring constant external unit cost of air pollutant from shipping, which is much applied in the literature, and the cost functions estimated in this study could thus provide a complementary transfer mechanism.     

A selection method of offshore production systems considering uncertainties

Journal of Marine Science and Technology - The development of an offshore deepwater oilfield is a complex and risky task. One core problem in this project is the selection of a production system...     

A forward Markov model for predicting bicycle speed

Transportation - Speed prediction of different transport modes is important in applications such as route planning, transport modelling and energy calculations. In this paper we model bicycle speed...     

襄阳汉江沉管隧道设计关键技术北大核心CSCD

基于襄阳汉江沉管隧道的工程设计实践,针对该隧道强冲刷、强透水地层深厚、防洪要求高等特点,对隧道平纵布置、管节及接头止水结构、干坞选型及结构、沉管基础及回填、沉管最终接头及对接端止水结构等进行了研究。结果表明:(1)内河沉管隧道采用长距离双轴线干坞布置方式,通过格形地下连续墙、超深落底式帷幕、地下连续墙预应力锚索垂直支护和混凝土封底组合技术解决了强透水地层深基坑支护及隔水难题;(2)采用全断面顺浇技术进行整体式管节预制,实现了管节接头止水设施的全国产化;(3)在内河沉管隧道采用高精度浮式整平先铺卵石基础,并提出了强冲刷区管顶防冲保护解决方案;(4)采用了不设独立止推构造的陆域最终接头,并针对工程需求设置了大直径锁口钢管桩配合外侧止水墙的对接端支护结构及分片整体吊装双壁钢围堰二次止水结构。     

软土刀具的磨损预测——一种研究刀具磨损系统中主要影响因素的新方法

硬岩隧道掘进机的性能很大程度上取决于其切削刀具的磨损情况。刀具的磨损会降低掘进速度,进而导致掘进时间延长、项目成本增加。通常在隧道项目的规划阶段使用预测模型来进行磨损预测,而常规的磨损试验对磨损系统的考虑还不够准确,并没有考虑到刀具/土体的相互作用、周围介质（水、膨润土）以及掘进过程中的荷载等因素。针对该问题,专门设计了一个水平放置的磨损试验设备。本文介绍了该试验方法,研究并讨论了磨损系统相关因素对磨损率的影响。结果表明,该设备可模拟真实的掘进过程,很好地解决了上述问题,达到了高效、准确预测磨损的效果。     

天然海水中15CDV6/MDN138及15CDV6/MDN250合金的电流相互作用（英文）

The galvanic corrosion behavior of the metal combinations 15 CDV6/MDN138 and 15 CDV6/MDN250, with 1:1 area ratio, has been studied in natural seawater using the open well facility of CECRI's Offshore Platform at Tuticorin for a year. The open circuit potentials of MDN138, MDN250, and 15 CDV6 of the individual metal, the galvanic potential and galvanic current of the couples 15 CDV6/MDN138 and 15 CDV6/MDN250, were periodically monitored throughout the study period. The calcareous deposits on MDN138 and MDN250 in galvanic contact with 15 CDV6 were analyzed using XRD. The electrochemical behavior of MDN138, MDN250, and 15 CDV6 in seawater was studied using an electrochemical work station. The surface characteristics of MDN138 and MDN250 in galvanic contact with 15 CDV6 have been examined with a scanning electron microscope. The results of the study reveal that the galvanic protection offered by15 CDV6 to MDN250 and MDN138 in natural seawater amounts to 93% and 98%, respectively, implying that the galvanic protection offered by 15 CDV6 is continuous and effective, which has been further evinced from the adherent nature of the calcareous deposit film comprising compounds such as CaCO_3(calcite, aragonite, and vaterite), MgCO_3(magnesite),Mg(OH)_2(brucite), and MgO(brucite).     

Recreational Leasing of Alaska Commercial Halibut Quota: The Early Years of the GAF Program in Alaska

The Pacific Halibut Catch Sharing Plan formalized the process for allocating halibut between the Alaska commercial and recreational charter sectors. It included a new program intended to allow for “flexibility” through inter-sectoral trading, permitting charter operators to lease commercial halibut pounds to relax client harvest restrictions. Here we evaluate the first two years of lease market activity and participation. Participation from some commercial quota holders in the lease market suggests that the program provided beneficial flexibility; in fact, the number of transfers to the charter sector was greater than transfers within the commercial sector for some quota types. We also identified a high proportion of self-leasers. However, transfers to the charter sector were on average smaller than within-sector commercial transfers, and total poundage leased by the charter sector was low compared with commercial transfers. Usage of leased quota by the recreational charter sector enables the harvest of larger fish or additional fish, and provides flexibility in catch composition on halibut closure days. Finally, the value-per-pound may be higher in the charter sector, as commercial-to-charter transfer prices approached the commercial ex-vessel price.