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This study investigates the drivers’ merging behavior and the rear-end crash risk in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the merging traffic data from a work zone site in Singapore, a mixed probit model is developed to describe the merging behavior, and two surrogate safety measures including the time to collision (TTC) and deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) are adopted to compute the rear-end crash risk between the merging vehicle and its neighboring vehicles. Results show that the merging vehicle has a bigger probability of completing a merging maneuver quickly under one of the following situations: (i) the merging vehicle moves relatively fast; (ii) the merging lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle; and (iii) there is a sizable gap in the adjacent through lane. Results indicate that the rear-end crash risk does not monotonically increase as the merging vehicle speed increases. The merging vehicle's rear-end crash risk is also affected by the vehicle type. There is a biggest increment of rear-end crash risk if the merging lead vehicle belongs to a heavy vehicle. Although the reduced remaining distance to work zone could urge the merging vehicle to complete a merging maneuver quickly, it might lead to an increased rear-end crash risk. Interestingly, it is found that the rear-end crash risk could be generally increased over the elapsed time after the merging maneuver being triggered.  相似文献
2.
In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to define and estimate a surrogate measure. By imposing a hypothetical disturbance to the leading vehicle, the following vehicle’s action is represented as a probabilistic causal model. After that, a tree is built to describe the eight possible conflict types under the model. The surrogate measure, named Aggregated Crash Index (ACI), is thus proposed to measure the crash risk. This index reflects the accommodability of freeway traffic state to a traffic disturbance. We further apply this measure to evaluate the crash risks in a freeway section of Pacific Motorway, Australia. The results show that the proposed indicator outperforms the three traditional crash surrogate measures (i.e., Time to Collision, Proportion of Stopping Distance, and Crash Potential Index) in representing rear-end crash risks. The applications of this measure are also discussed.  相似文献
3.
According to The Handbook of Tunnel Fire Safety, over 90% (55 out of 61 cases) of fires in road tunnels are caused by vehicle crashes (especially rear-end crashes). It is thus important to develop a proper methodology that is able to estimate the rear-end vehicle crash frequency in road tunnels. In this paper, we first analyze the time to collision (TTC) data collected from two road tunnels of Singapore and conclude that Inverse Gaussian distribution is the best-fitted distribution to the TTC data. An Inverse Gaussian regression model is hence used to establish the relationship between the TTC and its contributing factors. We then proceed to introduce a new concept of exposure to traffic conflicts as the mean sojourn time in a given time period that vehicles are exposed to dangerous scenarios, namely, the TTC is lower than a predetermined threshold value. We further establish the relationship between the proposed exposure to traffic conflicts and crash count by using negative binomial regression models. Based on the limited data samples used in this study, the negative binomial regression models perform well although a further study using more data is needed.  相似文献
4.
The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is one of the explicit requirements under the European Union (EU) Directive (2004/54/EC). As part of this, it is essential to be able to estimate the number of fatalities in different accident scenarios. In this paper, a tangible methodology is developed to estimate the number of fatalities caused by toxic gases due to fire in road tunnels by incorporating traffic flow and the spread of fire in tunnels. First, a deterministic queuing model is proposed to calculate the number of people at risk, by taking into account tunnel geometry, traffic flow patterns, and incident response plans for road tunnels. Second, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) is used to obtain the temperature and concentrations of CO, CO2, and O2. By taking advantage of the additivity of the fractional effective dose (FED) method, fatality rates for different locations in given time periods can be estimated. An illustrative case study is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.  相似文献
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