Risk-chasing behaviour in on-site construction decisions

Risk-chasing behaviour in on-site construction decision-making can result in illogical decisions and, thus, significant project losses. Accordingly, the authors conducted a set of experiments in order to detect the existence of such behaviour under a range of typical project conditions within a set of common situations. Fifty-three project leaders participated in the experiments by making choices framed by a set of 24 questions. Each question related to a known behavioural tendency, included the influence of an external parameter, and contained information from which expected values could be derived. Participants were well distributed by geography, age and experience. Contrary to the common perception that construction decision-makers are relentlessly risk-averse, they demonstrated risk-chasing behaviour when the decision occurred in over-budget project conditions. Younger participants were even more risk chasing in such conditions. Understanding and identifying where such behaviour occurs could ultimately lead to the development of means of avoiding the resulting losses.     

Productivity and mobility in academic research: evidence from mathematicians

Using an exhaustive database on academic publications in mathematics all over the world, we study the patterns of productivity by mathematicians over the period 1984–2006. We uncover some surprising facts, such as the weakness of age related decline in productivity and the relative symmetry of international movements, rejecting the presumption of a massive “brain drain” towards the US. We also analyze the determinants of success by top US departments. In conformity with recent studies in other fields, we find that selection effects are much stronger than local interaction effects: the best departments are most successful in hiring the most promising mathematicians, but not necessarily at stimulating positive externalities among them. Finally we analyze the impact of career choices by mathematicians: mobility almost always pays, but early specialization does not.     

Efficient surrogate construction by combining response surface methodology and reduced order modeling

Response surface methodology is an efficient method for approximating the output of complex, computationally expensive codes. Challenges remain however in decreasing their construction cost as well as in approximating high dimensional output instead of scalar values. We propose a novel approach addressing both these challenges simultaneously for cases where the expensive code solves partial differential equations involving the resolution of a large system of equations, such as by finite element. Our method is based on the combination of response surface methodology and reduced order modeling by projection, also known as reduced basis modeling. The novel idea is to carry out the full resolution of the system only at a small, appropriately chosen, number of points. At the other points only the inexpensive reduced basis solution is computed while controlling the quality of the approximation being sought. A first application of the proposed surrogate modeling approach is presented for the problem of identification of orthotropic elastic constants from full field displacement measurements based on a tensile test on a plate with a hole. A surrogate of the entire displacement field was constructed using the proposed method. A second application involves the construction of a surrogate for the temperature field in a rocket engine combustion chamber wall. Compared to traditional response surface methodology a reduction by about an order of magnitude in the total system resolution time was achieved using the proposed sequential surrogate construction strategy.     

Evaluating clustering quality using features salience: a promising approach

Neural Computing and Applications - This paper focuses on using feature salience to evaluate the quality of a partition when dealing with hard clustering. It is based on the hypothesis that a good...     

Classic and inverse compositional Gauss-Newton in global DIC

Today, effective implementations of digital image correlation (DIC) are based on iterative algorithms with constant linear operators. A relevant idea of the classic finite element (or, more generally, global) DIC solver consists in replacing the gradient of the deformed state image with that of the reference image, so as to obtain a constant operator. Different arguments (small strains, small deformations, equality of the two gradients close to the solution, etc) have been given in the literature to justify this approximation, but none of them are fully accurate. Indeed, the convergence of the optimization algorithm has to be investigated from its ability to produce descent directions. Through such a study, this paper attempts to explain why this approximation works and what is its domain of validity. Then, an inverse compositional Gauss-Newton implementation of finite element DIC is proposed as a cost-effective and mathematically sound alternative to this approximation.     

Corrosion Mechanisms of Steel and Cast Iron by Molten Aluminum

The corrosion mechanisms by liquid aluminum of three industrial materials have been studied: unalloyed steel (UAS), and ferritic and modified pearlitic cast irons (FCI and PCI, respectively). The behavior of these materials when in contact with liquid aluminum is different. Aluminum diffuses deep into the UAS and forms intermetallic compounds with iron at the surface and in the steel matrix. At the surface, only Fe₂Al₅ and FeAl₃ are found. In the matrix, FeAl₂ also is formed in agreement with the equilibrium Fe-Al diagram. From the matrix to FeAl₂, the Al content in the ferrite increases progressively until Al saturation is reached. At this step, black elongated precipitates (Al₄C₃ and/or graphite) appear. Graphite lamellas present in both FCI and PCI constitute an efficient barrier to the Al diffusion. The high silicon content of the FCI leads to the formation of a phase free from Al and saturated in Si. For the PCI, a thin layer rich in Al and Si, which is formed between the matrix and Fe₂Al₅, limits the diffusion of atoms. The effects of Cr and P added in the PCI also are discussed.     

Optimal strategies in the average consensus problem

Let a set of communicating agents compute the average of their initial positions, where every agent is restricted to communicate to a given small number of other agents (average consensus problem). We prove that the optimal topology of communication is given by a de Bruijn graph. Consensus is then reached in finitely many steps. This solution is valid when the number of agents is an exact power of the out-degree of the communication graph. We introduce an algebraic tool, the shifted Kronecker product, and a more general family of strategies, also based on a de Bruijn communication graph. Those strategies are compared to Cayley strategies in terms of the speed of convergence. We also show that quantized communication between the agents still allows finite convergence, to a consensus, which is not in general the average of the initial positions.     

释放阳光地带的光伏发电潜力

拥有非常丰富的太阳能辐射资源的阳光地带,人口占全球人口总数的75%,电力需求占全球总需求的40%,该地区经济发展受到能源和环境的制约,充分利用丰富的太阳能辐射资源开发光伏发电产业,是可持续发展的重要手段。预测结果表明,范式转型情景中,这些国家的光伏装机容量甚至可达1 100 GW,也就是该地域发电总量的12%;2020年阳光地带国家光伏系统的发电成本将比建设天然气和燃油电站更具竞争力;至2030年光伏发电可以与所有以煤和天然气为燃料的中负荷电厂竞争。阳光地带国家发展股份发电目前还面临着许多障碍,这些障碍涉及到政府对燃油价格的补贴、服务于市场的能力以及能源公司的知识有限等,这些障碍有待于在发展过程中不断克服。中国和印度是阳光地带中的大国,两国的光伏制造业对阳光地带的影响很大。新能源被锁定为中国十二五规划的七大战略性新兴产业之一,中国的十二.五规划的重心是重新平衡经济增长模式,包括逐步扩大内需;国内光伏市场一旦打开,光伏在中国的发展将会非常迅速。释放阳光地带光伏潜力要求众多利益相关者共同参与协作,包括政府、银行和金融机构以及各行各业的支持,才能充分释放阳光地带的光伏发电潜力,带动光伏发电产业链的发展,成为社会经济...