基于网络表达的皖南乡村民宿消费体验与提升对策研究

民宿作为一种新型的住宿产品,是发展乡村旅游和丰富住宿业态的重要载体.对皖南民宿网络评价文本分析发现,住客对皖南民宿的消费体验感知主要体现在软件服务、硬件设施、周边环境以及入住体验四个方面,"老板"和"房间"是住客感知最为深刻的具体对象,住客网络评论中积极情感占据绝对地位,大部分要素的表现性得分较高,但民宿的位置、交通、餐饮等方面也存在一定的消极感知.可以从服务质量、地域文化以及品牌创建与宣传方面进一步提升皖南民宿住客消费体验质量,促进区域业态可持续发展.     

汉武帝时期帝、后关系探微

文章从情感、家庭、政治层面探寻汉武帝与两位皇后间的关系。情感上，两位皇后将全部的爱倾注于丈夫武帝，武帝未能做到；家庭中，帝、后虽为男主人和女主人，但皇室家庭中的特殊因素会影响到二人间的关系；政治层面上，帝后关系更是君臣关系。文章通过对汉武帝时期帝、后关系的探讨，不仅能窥探有汉一代的帝后关系，更可窥探到当时经济、政治、思想等相关的时代背景。     

Regression analysis of case-cohort studies in the presence of dependent interval censoring

The case-cohort design is widely used as a means of reducing the cost in large cohort studies, especially when the disease rate is low and covariate measurements may be expensive, and has been discussed by many authors. In this paper, we discuss regression analysis of case-cohort studies that produce interval-censored failure time with dependent censoring, a situation for which there does not seem to exist an established approach. For inference, a sieve inverse probability weighting estimation procedure is developed with the use of Bernstein polynomials to approximate the unknown baseline cumulative hazard functions. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and the asymptotic normality of the resulting regression parameter estimators is established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample properties of the proposed approach and indicates that it works well in practical situations. The proposed method is applied to an HIV/AIDS case-cohort study that motivated this investigation.     

The Belt and Road and the Rediscovery of Reciprocity-Based Anthropology*

Reciprocity has core significance for understanding basic human living conditions: our social nature is founded on reciprocal relations, and reciprocity strengthens the ties between people. Reciprocity-based anthropology is a kind of cultural logic, one that stresses the interaction between different groups. Fundamentally, it involves studying forms of the mutually beneficial relations involved in complementary differences. This perspective reconciles differences, creating a communicative space for diverse cultures’ coexistence, symbiosis and sharing. The various channels formed through human activity include ways in and ways out, constant incomings and outgoings, the coexistence of different cultures, ways of life and ideas, and complementarity. The launching of the Belt and Road Initiative includes channels with multiple characteristics and functions, so research on this topic involves the analysis of society and culture based on roadways rather than locations.     

长三角青年与民生公共服务一体化——基于对长三角城市群在职青年的调查

民生公共服务一体化是长三角一体化发展国家战略的重要组成部分,也是长三角高质量一体化发展的基础。长三角城市群在职青年对于长三角民生公共服务一体化体验感受最深的是交通一体化,其他领域的民生公共服务一体化仍需大力推进。为此,长三角三省一市需协同创新,联合采取有效措施进一步推进和加强长三角民生公共服务一体化建设,同时要加大长三角一体化发展国家战略在青年中的宣传力度,引导激励广大青年积极参加长三角城市群民生公共服务的共建共享,为长三角民生公共服务一体化注入新的动力和活力。     

互联网深化、信息不确定性与企业出口平稳性

互联网作为信息搜寻和传播的重要渠道,有利于缓解国际市场不确定性对企业出口决策的影响,从而有助于稳定企业出口预期,保障出口企业的持续生存。本文首先基于Fernandes 和 Tang(2014)的研究框架将互联网深化程度和出口集聚同时纳入到异质性贸易企业模型,在剥离出口集聚对企业出口行为影响的基础上,从理论视角揭示了互联网深化程度提高影响企业出口行为特别是出口持续生存的内在机理与方向。研究发现,不同于出口集聚会同时影响企业的需求冲击和成本冲击,互联网深化带来的信息溢出效应会通过贝叶斯法则(Bayesian Rule)使得企业修正其对国际市场不确定性的预期,提高其对目的国市场成本冲击的估计精度,从而在互联网深化程度较高的城市,企业进入出口市场的临界生产率较低,有利于其出口参与度和出口稳定性的提高。然而互联网深化程度提高不影响企业在目的国市场产品出口的集约边际。本文使用2000-2013 年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和中国城市统计年鉴数据库的匹配数据从企业-目的国-产品层面实证检验了本文的理论命题。研究表明,我国政府应充分发挥互联网发展降低信息不确定性的微观机制,以推动外贸的平稳增长。     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

HDDA: DataSifter: statistical obfuscation of electronic health records and other sensitive datasets

There are no practical and effective mechanisms to share high-dimensional data including sensitive information in various fields like health financial intelligence or socioeconomics without compromising either the utility of the data or exposing private personal or secure organizational information. Excessive scrambling or encoding of the information makes it less useful for modelling or analytical processing. Insufficient preprocessing may compromise sensitive information and introduce a substantial risk for re-identification of individuals by various stratification techniques. To address this problem, we developed a novel statistical obfuscation method (DataSifter) for on-the-fly de-identification of structured and unstructured sensitive high-dimensional data such as clinical data from electronic health records (EHR). DataSifter provides complete administrative control over the balance between risk of data re-identification and preservation of the data information. Simulation results suggest that DataSifter can provide privacy protection while maintaining data utility for different types of outcomes of interest. The application of DataSifter on a large autism dataset provides a realistic demonstration of its promise practical applications.     

环境信息不对称、机构投资者实地调研与企业环境治理

基于信息不对称理论，本文以2013-2016年深交所重污染行业上市公司为研究样本，分析了机构投资者实地调研对企业环境治理的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，机构投资者实地调研对企业环境治理具有积极的推动作用；在环境信息披露较差以及本地子公司较多的企业中，机构投资者实地调研的环境治理作用更为明显。进一步考察实地调研对企业环境治理的影响路径发现，机构投资者实地调研推动了企业环境治理的资本市场监督和媒体监督。本文的研究验证了信息不对称理论在环境治理中的作用，拓宽了实地调研经济后果的研究领域，对于深入理解并推动我国企业环境治理具有重要的现实意义。