Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.     

Parent–Adolescent Sexual Communication and Its Association With Adolescent Sexual Behaviors: A Nationally Representative Analysis in the Netherlands

Sexual communication is a principal means of transmitting sexual values, beliefs, expectations, and knowledge from parents to children. Although this area has received considerable research attention, more studies with representative samples are needed to assure that findings are reflective of populations of interest. A nationally representative sample of parent–adolescent dyads (N = 2,965; mean adolescent age = 13.8 years) in the Netherlands was employed to examine the frequency of parent–adolescent sexual communication and its association with adolescent sexual behaviors (defined as sexual initiation, condom use, and contraceptive pill use). Nine communication topics in the areas of anatomy, relationships and rights, and protection and contraception were examined. In all, 75%of parents reported having discussed at least one topic multiple times with their adolescents. Romantic relationships were discussed most frequently. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses indicated that parent–adolescent sexual communication on protection and contraception was positively associated with adolescent sexual initiation and contraceptive pill use but not condom use. This may reflect that adolescents, when they become sexually active, are more likely to discuss sexuality with their parents. Findings are interpreted within the context of Dutch culture, which is generally accepting of adolescent sexuality and characterized by open sexual communication.     

Reframing Resilience: Equitable Access to Essential Services

We urgently need to put the concept of resilience into practice if we are to prepare our communities for climate change and exacerbated natural hazards. Yet, despite the extensive discussion surrounding community resilience, operationalizing the concept remains challenging. The dominant approaches for assessing resilience focus on either evaluating community characteristics or infrastructure functionality. While both remain useful, they have several limitations to their ability to provide actionable insight. More importantly, the current conceptualizations do not consider essential services or how access is impaired by hazards. We argue that people need access to services such as food, education, health care, and cultural amenities, in addition to water, power, sanitation, and communications, to get back some semblance of normal life. Providing equitable access to these types of services and quickly restoring that access following a disruption are paramount to community resilience. We propose a new conceptualization of community resilience that is based on access to essential services. This reframing of resilience facilitates a new measure of resilience that is spatially explicit and operational. Using two illustrative examples from the impacts of Hurricanes Florence and Michael, we demonstrate how decisionmakers and planners can use this framework to visualize the effect of a hazard and quantify resilience-enhancing interventions. This “equitable access to essentials” approach to community resilience integrates with spatial planning, and will enable communities not only to “bounce back” from a disruption, but to “bound forward” and improve the resilience and quality of life for all residents.     

Modelling the travel time of transit vehicles in real‐time through a GTFS‐based road network using GPS vehicle locations

Predicting the arrival time of a transit vehicle involves not only knowledge of its current position and schedule adherence, but also traffic conditions along the remainder of the route. Road networks are dynamic and can quickly change from free‐flowing to highly congested, which impacts the arrival time of transit vehicles, particularly buses which often share the road with other vehicles, so reliable predictions need to account for real‐time and future traffic conditions. The first step in this process is to construct a framework with which road state (traffic conditions) can be estimated using real‐time transit vehicle position data. Our proposed framework implements a vehicle model using a particle filter to estimate road travel times, which are used in a second model to estimate real‐time traffic conditions. Although development and testing took place in Auckland, New Zealand, we generalised each component to make the framework compatible with other public transport systems around the world. We demonstrate the real‐time feasibility and performance of our approach in real‐time, where a combination of R and C++ was used to obtain the necessary performance results. Future work will use these estimated traffic conditions in combination with historical data to obtain reliable arrival time predictions of transit vehicles.     

The Interplay Between Adolescents' Friendships and the Exchange of Help: A Longitudinal Multiplex Social Network Study

The aim of this study was to unravel the interrelatedness of friendship and help, and to examine the characteristics of friendship and help networks. The effects of mutual versus one‐sided help relations on friendship initiation and maintenance, and vice versa, were examined. Friendship and help networks were analyzed (N = 953 students; 41 classrooms; M_age = 12.7). The results illustrate that friendship and help networks show some similarities, but only partly overlap and have distinct characteristics. Longitudinal multiplex social network analyses showed that mutual help was important for the maintenance of friendship, but not for the initiation of friendship. Further, particularly mutual friendships provided a context in which help took place. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

A More Complete Picture: Rural Residents’ Relative Support for Seven Forms of Natural Resource-Related Economic Development

Understanding rural resident support for various forms of natural resource-related economic development has been a common research topic in rural sociology. However, the vast majority of research has only evaluated support for one form of natural resource use at a time. The little research that has explored support for a wide variety of uses has found that residents are likely to support many of the suggested forms of development. We assessed rural resident support for seven forms of natural resource development: commercial logging, natural gas, mining, real estate, wind energy, tourism, and outdoor recreation. Using social exchange theory, this study examines the influence of perceived impacts of development, industry trust, and perceived industry power on general support for the seven forms of natural resource-related economic development using a fixed effects generalized linear model among a sample of residents of rural Pennsylvania communities. Additionally, we use mixed logit discreet choice modeling to evaluate the drivers of relative support, meaning a stated preference for one form of development over other possible options. The drivers of general support and relative support were similar, with trust in industry and impacts to quality of life emerging as the primary drivers of both.     

Protecting and Benchmarking Migrants’ Rights: An Analysis of the Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration

The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) was to be “guided by human rights law and standards” in recognition of the rights of international migrants, who are currently protected by an overlapping patchwork of treaties and international law. The GCM contains many laudable commitments that, if implemented, will ensure that states more consistently respect, protect, and fulfil the rights of all migrants and also that states incorporate data on migration into a more cohesive governance regime that does more to promote cooperation on the issue of international migration. However, many concerns remain. Using a legal analysis and cross‐national policy data, we find that the GCM neither fully articulates existing law nor makes use of international consensus to expand the rights of migrants. In its first section, this article provides a concise analysis of the GCM's compliance with a set of core principles of existing international human rights law regarding migrants. In the second section, we apply a novel instrument to create an objective, cross‐national accounting of the laws protecting migrants’ rights in various national legal frameworks. Focusing on a sample of five diverse destination and sending countries, the results suggest we are close to an international consensus on the protection of a core set of migrants’ rights. This analysis should help prioritize the work necessary to implement the GCM.     

Student budgets and widening participation: Comparative experiences of finance in low and higher income undergraduates at a northern red brick university

Drawing on a thematic analysis of longitudinal qualitative data (n_total = 118), this article takes a “whole student lifecycle” approach to examine how lower and higher income students at an English northern red brick university variously attempted to manage their individual budgets. It explores how students reconcile their income—in the form of loans, grants, and bursaries—with the cost of living. Four arenas of interest are described: planning, budgeting, and managing “the student loan”; disruptions to financial planning; the role of familial support; and strategies of augmenting the budget. In detailing the micro‐level constraints on the individual budgets of lower and higher income undergraduates, the article highlights the importance of non‐repayable grants and bursaries in helping to sustain meaningful participation in higher tariff, more selective, higher education institutions. It also supports an emerging body of literature that suggests that the continuing amendments to the system of funding higher education in England are unlikely to address inequality of access, participation, and outcome.     

Children and the ‘Social Cohesion’ Agenda in Sport: Children's Participation in ‘Ethnically Mixed’ Sports Teams in the North of England

This study is set in the North of England in the context of debates around the integration of communities, after a series of street disturbances in the early 2000s. The debates centred upon ‘social cohesion’ and the social mixing of Pakistani British and White British communities. The current study explores this from the context of 10‐ to 11‐year‐old Asian, Black and White British boys participating in cricket and football clubs. It draws on the sociology of childhood approach that sees children as active participants and co‐creators of their own lives. This more nuanced approach sheds important light on children's own negotiations of home, peers, sports clubs and identities that are key to how cohesion is achieved.