南京中山植物园游憩功能满意度评价研究

随着植物园"旅游经济"的发展,植物园在承担植物科学研究及科普功能的同时,也成为公众日常休闲的重要绿地。本文选取南京中山植物园作为研究对象,建立评价体系并运用模糊综合评价法对游客满意度进行研究,探寻影响植物园游憩功能的显著因子,为未来植物园规划设计提供参考。结果表明:游客对南京中山植物园的游憩功能达到基本满意水平。其中,植物物种多样性、景区分布、建筑景观、声景观的满意度较高,滨水景观的满意度评价值较低。通过Pearson相关系数发现植物色彩丰富度、科普场所、科普内容是影响游客满意度的显著因子。运用IPA图对16项评价因子进行重要度-满意度分析,并对各象限内的因子提出改进方向。最后基于游憩功能满意度评价结果,提出改进策略:加大对植物园休息设施、卫生设施、娱乐设施和商业服务设施的投入;更新科普方式,增添特色游憩主题园区;完善现有道路体系,增强对北部专类园的可达性;增加色叶植物的种类、提高色彩丰富度等。以期为中山植物园游憩功能的优化及其他植物园的规划设计提供借鉴。     

Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Illustrating the Value of Critical Methodologies Through Third-sector Gender Studies: A Case for Pluralism

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - To encourage methodological pluralism in the field, this paper examines an illustrative sample of articles that apply...     

“功能性表达性模型”与中国警察信任——基于全国样本的多重中介与调节模型分析

功能性模型认为，提升警察信任的主要方法在于预防和控制犯罪，降低犯罪率与提升公众安全感；而表达性模型认为，提升警察信任更应注重维护社会正义与社区凝聚力。基于提出促进中国警察信任度提高的理论模型，提升公众获得感、幸福感、安全感，实现国家和社会整体安全的最终目的，采用结构方程模型验证“功能性-表达性模型”与中国警察信任关系的结果表明，功能性模型与表达性模型内部因素之间存在显著路径关系，同时功能性模型显著影响表达性模型指标进而改变公众对警察的信任程度。经调节效应分析后发现，主观社会阶层负向调节被害经历到犯罪恐惧感的直接路径，社交媒体使用负向调节犯罪恐惧感到警察信任的直接路径；在主观社会阶层和社交媒体使用的共同调节作用下，“被害经历→犯罪恐惧感→警察信任”中介路径效应值，随社交媒体使用频率的提升而增大，随主观社会阶层的升高而减小。     

基于最新统计分类标准的数字经济发展水平测度

随着信息技术的发展,数字经济已经成为经济增长的"新引擎"。但由于缺乏权威的产业统计分类标准,学者们一直面临"数字经济研究缺乏数字依据"的尴尬境地。文章基于国家统计局公布并实施的《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》中的分类标准,对各省份统计年鉴的数据进行重新整理,利用熵权法构建数字经济发展指数,测度了我国30个省份的数字经济发展水平,分析了各省份数字经济发展的差异以及时空特征。研究发现,2009—2019年我国数字经济产业发展迅猛,各项子产业都取得了长足的进步。相比较而言,数字要素驱动业发展速度略低于其他三个子产业;数字经济发展存在着明显的区域不平衡。东中部地区的数字经济发展状况明显优于西部地区,南方优于北方,而且区域不平衡有持续扩大趋势。     

Co-constructing a Conceptual Understanding of System Enactment

Clinical Social Work Journal - System enactments are co-created phenomena characterized by confounding and emotionally charged multi-person interactions that emerge through the convergence of...     

Mobile Money and School Participation: Evidence from Africa

This paper shows that mobile money technology—an electronic wallet service that allows users to deposit, transfer, and receive money using their mobile phones—is positively correlated with increased school participation of children in school age. By using data from 4 African countries, we argue that, by reducing transaction costs, and by making it easier and less expensive to receive remittances, mobile money reduces the need for coping strategies that are detrimental to child development, such as withdrawing children from school and sending them to work. We find that mobile money increases the chances of children attending school. This finding is robust to different empirical models. In a nutshell, our results show that 1 million children could start attending school in low-income countries if mobile money was available to all.

     

科技创新、产业复杂度与经济增长

科技创新能够通过产业复杂度的变化对经济增长产生影响.以1995—2019年世界银行和哈佛大学Atlas数据库的科技创新为研究样本,运用中介效应检验方法,考察科技创新如何通过纺织类、农业类、钻石类、矿产类、金属类、化工类、汽车类、设备类和电子类的产业复杂度变化来影响国民生产总值,从而揭示了科技创新如何通过产业复杂度的变化影响经济增长的机理.研究结果表明:从总体上看,科技创新影响经济增长的过程中,产业复杂度的中介效应量为90.83％,具有显著性,其中农业类、钻石类以及矿产类相关系数为负,其他类别相关系数为正,电子类作用程度最高.区分经济体类型的研究结果显示:产业复杂度的中介效应存在异质性,发达经济体、亚洲经济体、技术密集型经济体存在相对优势,而且科技创新促进经济增长开启了"机会窗口期",后发经济体可以实现"弯道超车".这一研究结论有助于丰富科技创新领域的相关成果,能够为引导产业转型升级方向、提高国家经济增长能力提供理论依据和经验借鉴.     

平台与互补商协同创新的制度逻辑及其作用机制

平台与互补商的协同专业化对于创新生态系统的构建具有重要作用.然而,平台企业与互补商可能各自具有冲突的或互补的制度逻辑,它们彼此要实现协同创新的目标,就必然在达成协作共识的过程中形成主导型制度逻辑,进而规范双方的创新活动与行为.但是,这种主导型制度逻辑如何产生?它们的作用机制是什么?过去的研究还很少涉及这类问题.本文通过OPPO的案例研究,结果表明:(1)平台与一般互补商合作时,平台的谈判能力相对较强,平台的制度逻辑占据主导地位;(2)平台对瓶颈互补商具有较强的依赖时,互补商拥有较强的谈判能力,平台在两者的合作中会选择妥协,此时互补商的制度逻辑占主导地位;(3)平台与瓶颈互补商的关系是双向依赖时,两方合作形成的制度逻辑是混合逻辑;(4)面对强大的外部制度压力时,平台与互补商的合作会形成或遵循新的制度逻辑.     

Consolidation and fragmentation in environmental scanning: A review and research agenda

Environmental scanning is a broadly defined concept, having first received attention from scholars in the late 1960s. Over the years a number of similar and overlapping constructs have emerged in management literature. The aim of this study, via a systematic review and thematic analysis of relevant empirical research, is to consolidate foundation environmental scanning knowledge, demonstrate how scanning research has developed and fragmented over time, and propose an agenda for future research. The first contribution of our review is a new typology of environmental scanning research made up of five discrete research views, which provides a more comprehensive and contemporary overview of the field than previous studies. The second is a proposed agenda for future research that explicitly acknowledges the role of technology, an area that is presently underdeveloped in foundation scanning literature. The third contribution is to signpost future directions for research on scanning and organisational performance using a number of theoretical perspectives. The overall outcome of our review is to move scanning research on from increasingly incremental contributions concerned with context to a place where the changing role of technology and the mechanisms through which environmental scanning contributes to competitive advantage can be more thoroughly understood.