Relationship between abundance of rodents and damage to agricultural crops

Developing a relationship between pest abundance and damage to crops is essential for the calculation of economic injury levels (EIL) leading to informed management decisions. The crop modelling framework, APSIM, was used to simulate the impact of mouse damage on yield loss on wheat where a long-term dataset on the density of mice was available (1983–2003). The model was calibrated using results from field trials where wheat plants were hand clipped to imitate mouse damage. The grazing effect of mice was estimated using the population density, daily intake per mouse and the proportion of wheat grain and plant tissue in the diet to determine yield loss. The mean yield loss caused by mice was 12.4% (±5.4S.E.; range −0.5 to 96%). There were 7/21 years when yield loss was >5%. A damage/abundance relationship was constructed and a sigmoidal curve explained 97% of variation when accounting for different trajectories of mouse densities from sowing to harvest. The majority of damage occurred around emergence of the crop when mouse densities were >100 mice ha⁻¹. This is the first time that field data on mouse density and a crop simulation model have been combined to estimate yield loss. The model examines the efficacy of baiting and how to estimate EILs. Because the broadscale application of zinc phosphide is cheap and effective, the EIL is very low (<1% yield loss). The APSIM model is highly flexible and could be used for other vertebrate pests in a range of crops or pastures to develop density/damage relationships and to assist with management.     

Prenatal diagnosis of the fragile X using thymidine induction

Eleven pregnancies in ten patients at risk for the fragile X were monitored by amniocentesis or chorion villus biopsy and induction of the fragile site using thymidine, methotrexate and FUdR. Three female fetuses and one male fetus were found to have the fragile X. The results obtained using thymidine induction were superior to those using methotrexate induction and probably better than those obtained using FUdR induction.     

Simulation of vegetation dynamics and management strategies on south Texas, semi-arid rangeland

In this paper, we describe a model designed to simulate seasonal dynamics of warm and cool season grasses and forbs, as well as the dynamics of woody plant succession through five seral stages, in each of nine different plant communities on the Rob and Bessie Welder Wildlife Refuge. The Welder Wildlife Refuge (WWR) is located in the Gulf Coastal Prairies and Marshes ecoregion of Texas. The model utilizes and integrates data from a wide array of research projects that have occurred in south Texas and WWR. It is designed to investigate the effects of alternative livestock grazing programs and brush control practices, with particular emphasis on prescribed burning, the preferred treatment for brush on the WWR. We evaluated the model by simulating changes in the plant communities under historical (1974-2000) temperature, rainfall, livestock grazing rotation, and brush control regimes, and comparing simulation results to field data on herbaceous biomass and brush canopy cover collected on the WWR over the same period. We then used the model to simulate the effects of 13 alternative management schemes, under each of four weather regimes, over the next 25 years. We found that over the simulation period, years 1974-2000, the model does well in simulating the magnitude and seasonality of herbaceous biomass production and changes in percent brush canopy cover on the WWR. It also does well in simulating the effects of variations in cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control regimes on plant communities, thus providing insight into the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control on the overall productivity and state of woody plant succession on the WWR. Simulation of alternative management schemes suggests that brush canopy removal differs little between summer and winter prescribed burn treatments when precipitation remains near the long-term average, but during periods of low precipitation canopy removal is greater under winter prescribed burning. The model provides a useful tool to assist refuge personnel with developing long-term brush management and livestock grazing strategies.     

The in situ treatment of synthetic musk fragrances in groundwater

Synthetic musk fragrances (SMFs) have been shown to be micropollutants in various aquatic and groundwater systems, often occurring at microgram per liter concentrations. Studies have shown that the most commonly detected SMFs in water are nitro musks and polycyclic musks. The SMFs are typically introduced into the environment in continuous streams such as from wastewater and land application of wastewater or sludge generated during wastewater treatment. Various studies for the treatment of SMFs have been undertaken for wastewater but studies for the treatment of SMFs in groundwater are limited, especially for in situ treatment. A pilot‐scale test was conducted to determine if the use of colloidal activated carbon (CAC) could effectively reduce dissolved concentrations of nitro and polycyclic synthetic musk compounds including musk xylene, musk ketone, galaxolide, and tonalide. The pilot test was carried out downgradient of a septic system in Central Canada where a series of nitrification and denitrification reactions are occurring in an unconfined aquifer. A 10‐weight percent CAC solution was injected into a series of temporary direct push injection points to target the synthetic musk plume. The plume contained galaxolide and tonalide concentrations up to 687 and 187 nanograms per liter (ng/L), respectively, while the concentrations of musk ketone and musk xylene were below the method detection limit (20 ng/L). A total of 13,950 liters of CAC solution was injected during one injection event. The pilot test results indicated that the CAC was effectively delivered to the target injection zone resulting in an increase in total organic carbon concentrations within the saturated soil greater than two orders of magnitude compared to the background concentrations. Analyses of the groundwater chemistry before and post‐injection indicated that the CAC had no detrimental impact on the groundwater quality while reducing the concentration of dissolved galaxolide and tonalide within the plume to below the method detection limits within 51 days of injection with the exception of two of the 14 wells monitored which had galaxolide and tonalide concentrations up to 78 and 35 ng/L. Within 6 months of application, the concentrations of galaxolide and tonalide had decreased to below the method detection limits. Subsequent monitoring of the groundwater quality over a one‐year period failed to detect galaxolide and tonalide, suggesting that the CAC was effective in attenuating the galaxolide and tonalide.     

Developmental toxicity of two common corn pesticides to the endangered southern bell frog (Litoria raniformis)

To examine the link between corn agriculture and the observed decline of the endangered southern bell frog (SBF), the effects of two corn crop pesticides on larval growth and development were investigated. Tadpoles were exposed to terbufos sulfone (10 μg/L), a major breakdown product of the insecticide terbufos, and the herbicide atrazine (25 μg/L) individually and as a mixture until the completion of metamorphosis. Atrazine did not interact synergistically with terbufos sulfone or result in significant effects on growth and development alone, although there was some indication of accelerated metamorphosis in the pilot study. Terbufos sulfone alone and as a mixture (terbufos/atrazine) significantly slowed larval development and ultimately delayed metamorphosis. The observed developmental effects from an environmentally relevant concentration of terbufos sulfone indicates a risk posed by this persistent degradation product to the endangered SBF, which breeds and develops in the rice bays adjacent to corn fields treated with pesticides.     

A hierarchical approach to fisheries planning and modeling in the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin is the scene of a massive effort to restore populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead (O. mykiss). Efficient restoration is confounded by a high level of complexity, competing sociopolitical goals and values, and uncertainty about key system properties. Simulation models and other tools of systems analysis are important to development of a comprehensive, regionally acceptable strategy. Hierarchy theory provides a useful paradigm for organized complexity within the Columbia Basin and the basis for a trilevel hierarchical structure for organizing and integrating models. Life-stage models compose the most basic simulation units at the lowest level in the proposed hierarchical modeling structure. Each life-stage model simulates a distinct period in the life cycle of anadromous salmonids. Population models at the intermediate level simulate the complete life cycles of salmon and steelhead populations. At the highest level in the hierarchy, interpopulation models simulate extensive, long-term processes that affect multiple species and stocks. A hierarchical system of models is preferable to a single model or to a group of models lacking formal structure. A principal advantage is that models have the correct spatial and temporal resolution for analyzing questions at different scales. A hierarchical structure also facilitates the flow of information among models, and aids in understanding the impacts of uncertainty. Constructing a hierarchy of models should involve both bottom-up and top-down perspectives that maintain logical consistency among models, while allowing unique model structures appropriate for each level in the hierarchy.     

Estimating separately personal exposure to ambient and nonambient particulate matter for epidemiology and risk assessment: why and how

This paper discusses the legal and scientific reasons for separating personal exposure to PM into ambient and nonambient components. It then demonstrates by several examples how well-established models and data typically obtained in exposure field studies can be used to estimate both individual and community average exposure to ambient-generated PM (ambient PM outdoors plus ambient PM that has infiltrated indoors), indoor-generated PM, and personal activity PM. Ambient concentrations are not highly correlated with personal exposure to nonambient PM or total PM but are highly correlated with personal exposure to ambient-generated PM. Therefore, ambient concentrations may be used in epidemiology as an appropriate surrogate for personal exposure to ambient-generated PM. Suggestions are offered as to how exposure to ambient-generated PM may be obtained and used in epidemiology and risk assessment.     

Comparison of Two Types of Metapopulation Models in Real and Artificial Landscapes

Abstract: Application of metapopulation models is becoming increasingly widespread in the conservation of species in fragmented landscapes. We provide one of the first detailed comparisons of two of the most common modeling techniques, incidence function models and stage-based matrix models, and test their accuracy in predicting patch occupancy for a real metapopulation. We measured patch occupancies and demographic rates for regional populations of the Florida scrub lizard (   Sceloporus woodi ) and compared the observed occupancies with those predicted by each model. Both modeling strategies predicted patch occupancies with good accuracy ( 77–80%) and gave similar results when we compared hypothetical management scenarios involving removal of key habitat patches and degradation of habitat quality. To compare the two modeling approaches over a broader set of conditions, we simulated metapopulation dynamics for 150 artificial landscapes composed of equal-sized patches (2–1024 ha) spaced at equal distances (50–750 m). Differences in predicted patch occupancy were small to moderate (<20%) for about 74% of all simulations, but 22% of the landscapes had differences openface> 50%. Incidence function models and stage-based matrix models differ in their approaches, assumptions, and requirements for empirical data, and our findings provide evidence that the two models can produce different results. We encourage researchers to use both techniques and further examine potential differences in model output. The feasibility of obtaining data for population modeling varies widely among species and limits the modeling approaches appropriate for each species. Understanding different modeling approaches will become increasingly important as conservation programs undertake the challenge of managing for multiple species in a landscape context.