A CER discounting scheme could save climate change regime after 2012

We can generate a net global GHG emission reduction from developing countries (in an UNFCCC term, non-Annex 1 Parties) without imposing targets on them, if we discount CERs generated from CDM projects. The CER discounting scheme means that a part or all of CDM credits, i.e., CERs, made by developing countries through unilateral CDM projects will be retired rather than sold to developed countries to increase their emissions. It is not feasible to impose certain forms of target (whether sectoral or intensity targets) on non-Annex 1 whose emission trend is hard to predict and whose industrial structure is undergoing a rapid change.

Instead of imposing targets (a command and control approach), we should apply market instruments in generating a net global emission reduction from non-Annex 1. Since April 2005 when the first unilateral CDM was approved by the CDM Executive Board, CDM has been functioning as a market mechanism to provide incentives for developing countries to initiate their own emission reduction projects. As CDM is the only market mechanism engaging developing countries in the Kyoto Protocol, we should try to re-design CDM so that it can generate net global emission reductions by introducing the idea of discounting CERs. But in order to produce meaningful GHG emission reductions by discounting CERs, the project scope of CDM has to be expanded by relaxing project additionality criteria while maintaining strict technical additionality criteria. Agreeing on the CERs Discounting Scheme will have a better political chance than agreeing on imposing emission reduction targets on developing countries.     

Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways

We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1°C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4°C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5°C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1°C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3°C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.     

Climate change signal analysis for Northeast Asian surface temperature

Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO42- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the di     

大兴安岭中生代两类流纹岩与玄武岩的成因联系

根据地质产状和地球化学特征大兴安岭中生代流纹岩类可划分为高Ti流纹岩和低Ti流纹岩。高Ti流纹岩类与亚碱性系列玄武岩类紧密伴生 ,两者在地球化学上构成连续变异系列。低Ti流纹岩类则与碱性系列玄武岩类构成地球化学双峰态。岩相学和地球化学研究表明 ,这两类流纹岩与该区同期玄武岩类有着密切的成因联系 :起源于地幔柱亏损成分的亚碱性系列玄武岩浆经过单斜辉石、斜长石、磷灰石、锆石的分离结晶 ,形成亚碱性系列低钾玄武岩→高钾玄武岩→高Ti流纹岩演化系列 ;起源于地幔柱富集成分的碱性系列玄武岩浆侵入下地壳 ,使下地壳岩石发生部分熔融 ,形成碱性系列玄武岩 -低Ti流纹岩双峰态组合     

Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system

A standard skill assessment(SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system.The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations,and involved the computation of multiple skill metrics including correlation and error skills.User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system.To achieve this,the tool produced a time series comparison plot,a skill score table,and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores.Moreover,the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables.For the atmospheric variables,acceptable error criteria were preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales,since the mean square error overwhelmed the observation variance.Conversely,for the hydrodynamic variables,acceptable root mean square percentage error(e.g.,p erms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error(e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula.Furthermore,the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency(fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits(i.e.,the fc equals 70%).     

Incorporation of parameter uncertainty into spatial interpolation using Bayesian trans-Gaussian kriging

Quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE) plays an important role in meteorological and hydrological applications.Ground-based telemetered rain gauges are widely used to collect precipitation measurements. Spatial interpolation methods are commonly employed to estimate precipitation fields covering non-observed locations. Kriging is a simple and popular geostatistical interpolation method, but it has two known problems: uncertainty underestimation and violation of assumptions.This paper tackles these problems and seeks an optimal spatial interpolation for QPE in order to enhance spatial interpolation through appropriately assessing prediction uncertainty and fulfilling the required assumptions. To this end, several methods are tested: transformation, detrending, multiple spatial correlation functions, and Bayesian kriging. In particular, we focus on a short-term and time-specific rather than a long-term and event-specific analysis. This paper analyzes a stratiform rain event with an embedded convection linked to the passing monsoon front on the 23 August 2012. Data from a total of 100 automatic weather stations are used, and the rainfall intensities are calculated from the difference of 15 minute accumulated rainfall observed every 1 minute. The one-hour average rainfall intensity is then calculated to minimize the measurement random error. Cross-validation is carried out for evaluating the interpolation methods at regional and local levels. As a result,transformation is found to play an important role in improving spatial interpolation and uncertainty assessment, and Bayesian methods generally outperform traditional ones in terms of the criteria.     

Effects of freshwater runoff on a tropical pacific climate in the HadGEM2

This paper investigates the effects of river discharge on simulated climatology from 1979 to 1988 using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2. Two experiments are performed with and without the inclusion of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways. The results show that the inclusion of flow routing can lead to the decrease of salinity over the coastal region due to freshwater. This reduction results in a shallower mixed layer depth, which in turn leads to the weakening of trade winds and a decrease in vertical mixing in the ocean. The enhanced sensible and latent heat fluxes over warmed SST improve the simulated precipitation and thermodynamic circulation. As a result, the experiment with flow routing is capable of improving the large-scale climate feature with an increase in precipitation over the eastern tropical equatorial Pacific region.     

Multi-decadal scenario simulation over Korea using a one-way double-nested regional climate model system. Part 1: recent climate simulation (1971–2000)

We present an analysis of a high resolution multi-decadal simulation of recent climate (1971–2000) over the Korean Peninsula with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested system. Mean climate state as well as frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. The mother intermediate resolution model domain encompasses the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing while the high resolution nested domain covers the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. The simulation spans the 30-year period of January 1971 through December 2000, and initial and lateral boundary conditions for the mother domain are provided from ECHO-G fields based on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The model shows a good performance in reproducing the climatological and regional characteristics of surface variables, although some persistent biases are present. Main results are as follows: (1) The RegCM3 successfully simulates the fine-scale structure of the temperature field due to topographic forcing but it shows a systematic cold bias mostly due to an underestimate of maximum temperature. (2) The frequency distribution of simulated daily mean temperature agrees well with the observed seasonal and spatial patterns. In the summer season, however, daily variability is underestimated. (3) The RegCM3 simulation adequately captures the seasonal evolution of precipitation associated to the East Asia monsoon. In particular, the simulated winter precipitation is remarkably good, clearly showing typical precipitation patterns that occur on the northwestern areas of Japan during the winter monsoon. Although summer precipitation is underestimated, area-averaged time series of precipitation over Korea show that the RegCM3 agrees better with observations than ECHO-G both in terms of seasonal evolution and precipitation amounts. (4) Heavy rainfall phenomena exceeding 300 mm/day are simulated only at the high resolution of the double nested domain. (5) The model shows a tendency to overestimate the number of precipitation days and to underestimate the precipitation intensities. (6) A CSEOF analysis reveals that the model captures the strength of the annual cycle and the surface warming trend throughout the simulated period.