The tourism disaster vulnerability framework: an application to tourism in small island destinations

Islands are known to be vulnerable to natural hazards, resulting in substantial risks for their tourism industries. To facilitate the systematic analysis of the underlying vulnerability drivers, a tourism disaster vulnerability framework was developed. The conceptual model then guided qualitative empirical research in three regions: the Caribbean, the South Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. The results from 73 interviews highlight common, as well as idiosyncratic, factors that shape the islands’ hazardscapes and vulnerabilities. Key vulnerabilities included social, economic, political, and environmental dimensions. Probably, the most critical vulnerability driver is the lack of private sector investment in disaster risk reduction. This is interrelated with deficient planning processes, on-going demand for coastal products, lack of political will, and poor environmental conditions. Notwithstanding many barriers, some businesses and organisations engage proactively in addressing disaster risk. The paper’s empirical evidence supports the validity of the framework, and suggestions for further research are made.     

Sensitivity experiments for polar low forecasting with the CMC mesoscale finite‐element model

Abstract

High‐resolution versions of the Canadian operational regional finite‐element model (RFE) have been developed to assess their potential in simulating mesoscale, difficult‐to‐forecast and potentially dangerous weather systems commonly referred to as polar lows. The operational (1989) 100‐km version and a 50‐km version of the model have been run for two different polar low cases: one over Hudson Bay and one over Davis Strait. More integrations have also been performed on the Hudson Bay event both at 50 and 25 km to assess the model sensitivity to ice cover. As expected, the reduction in spatial truncation errors provided by the increase in resolution results in a better simulation of the systems. Moreover, when run at higher resolutions the model shows a significant sensitivity to ice cover. The results of the ice‐cover experiments also put into perspective the interaction between the heat and moisture fluxes at the surface, the low‐level wind structure, and the relation of these to the development of the polar low. This study suggests that the improved forecast accuracy obtained from increased resolution is limited by the correctness of the analysis of the ice cover, which acts as a stationary forcing for the entire forecast period.     

城市化进程对自然水系功能的影响

城市化进程中城市水文系统受到严重影响,致使现阶段我国城市中自然水文循环系统和以供排水为重心的城市人工侧支水循环系统之间存在尖锐矛盾。如何协调两者之间的关系,实现流域内城市地区人工侧支水循环系统与自然水文循环系统之间的良性互动,从而促进城市系统中经济、社会和环境协调可持续发展成为亟待解决的问题。     

The Lassee segment of the Vienna Basin fault system as a potential source of the earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Carnuntum</Emphasis> in the fourth century <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">a.d.</Emphasis>

The Vienna Basin fault system is a slow moving (1–2 mm/y) active sinistral fault extending from the Alps through the Vienna Basin into the Carpathians. It comprises an array of NE-striking sinistral strike-slip segments, which differ both by their kinematic and seismologic properties. Among these, the Lassee segment 30 km east of Vienna is of particular interest for seismic hazard assessment as it shows a significant seismic slip deficit. The segment is located about 8 km from the Roman city of Carnuntum, for which archaeological data indicate a destructive earthquake in the fourth century a.d. (local intensity about 9 EMS-98). Mapping of the Lassee segment using 2D seismic, GPR, tectonic geomorphology and Pleistocene basin analysis shows a negative flower structure at a releasing bend of the Vienna Basin fault. The hanging wall of the flower structure includes a Quaternary basin filled with up to 100-m thick Pleistocene growth strata. Faults root in the basal detachment of the Alpine-Carpathian floor thrust at about 8 km depth. The active faults east of the flower structure offset a Middle Pleistocene terrace of the Danube River forming an up to 20-m high composite fault scarp. High-resolution GPR (40, 500 MHz) mapped at least four distinct surface-breaking faults along this scarp including three faults, which are covered by about 2 m of post-tectonic strata. The youngest fault offsets these strata and coincides with a 0.5-m high scarp. This scarp may be interpreted as the product of a single surface-breaking earthquake, provided that the mapped fault offset formed during coseismic surface rupture. Data indicate that the Lassee segment may well be regarded the source of the fourth century earthquake. The interpretation is in line with local attenuation relations indicating a source close to the damaged site, observed fault dimensions and the fault offsets recorded by GPR and morphology.     

Potentials of monitoring rock fall hazards by GPR: considering as example the results of Salzburg

A part of the IUGS-UNESCO research project "Landslide Hazard Assessment and Cultural Heritage" (IGCP-Project No. 425) includes testing the application of geophysical methods for assessing hazard risks to people and cultural assets. In this work, Austria contributed with a study on the assessment of rock-fall hazards. As the Old Town of Salzburg is a prime example of such hazards, systematic GPR-measurements were made on major rock surfaces. The aim of the exploration with GPR was to assess the potential of the method for monitoring rock walls. That is, whether structures in the rock mass which could become important when considering the risk of a rock fall, can be imaged. To manage this problem successfully, moving the antenna over the rough rock surface was made as regular as possible. The effects of vegetation lifting the antenna from the rock surface and of overhanging regions could not be avoided. Due to the loss of coupling of the antenna and the change of radiation pattern, some interference of the records occurred. Thus, only after processing could it become clear which reflections came from within the rock. A three-dimensional survey of discontinuities in the rock requires accurate mapping of the rock surface by photogrammetric methods, to get a digital terrain model for the analysis of the GPR records. The results of repeated measurements have proved to be of essential relevance. They have shown that it is possible to reveal changes with time. For the interpretation of such observations, modeling is a very useful tool.