Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于从头算量化参数的BPx网络模型在吡啶类化合物pKa中的应用

用量子化学从头算RHF方法在6-31G水平下对吡啶类分子进行构型全优化，并用优化得到的量化参数作为反向传播人工神经网络的输入向量，并将此模型（人工神经网络）应用到吡啶类化合物pKa值的预测。将预测结果与多元线性回归算法的结果相比较。研究表明，所构造的人工神经网模型在预测吡啶类化合物的pKa值中得到满意的结果．     

A new parasitoid (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Aphidiinae) of the invasive bamboo aphids Takecallis spp. (Hemiptera: Aphididae) from Western Europe

A long-term survey of tritrophic (plant–aphid–parasitoid) associations in the urban ecosystems of Lleida (Catalonia) and Paris (France) resulted in the detection of associations of two bamboo aphids, Takecallis arundinariae (Essig) and Takecallis taiwanus (Takahashi), respectively, with a new aphid parasitoid species. Trioxys remaudierei Starý & Rakhshani sp. nov. is described and illustrated as a unique parasitoid of Takecallis aphids outside the area of their origin. The new species is easily distinguishable from its congeners in having the ventral prongs of the abdomen fused over two-thirds of their length, then bifurcated towards the tip. The only morphologically similar species is Trioxys betulae (Marshall), which exhibits a clearly different prong shape (and has a different host range, Symydobius Mordvilko and Clethrobius Mordvilko). The new species is compared with allied taxa associated with bamboo aphids. The occurrence of Takecallis taiwanus on bamboo is recorded in France for the first time.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:ED15BA16-E8A9-4CEA-BDA7-FBAB02FEB091     

The influence of home environmental factors and life style on children＇s respiratory health in Xi＇an

To assess associations between home indoor air environments and asthma,allergies and pneumonia,children aged 1–8 years were surveyed from 12 kindergartens in the city of Xi’an.2,020 questionnaires were responded with a response rate of 83.5%.The prevalences of doctor diagnosed asthma,hay fever,and pneumonia were 2.9%,3.6%,and 28.3%,respectively.Living close to a highway was a risk factor for current rhinitis(AOR 1.5,95%CI 1.2–1.8),eczema(AOR 1.7,95%CI 1.2–2.5),and diagnosed pneumonia(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.6).Dampness problems in the home were associated with 50%–130%increases in the prevalences of asthma and allergy.Airing bed linen under sun-shine was protective,especially against rhinitis.Pet avoidance was consistently and significantly associated with asthma and allergy(AOR 1.3–2.4).Decoration of the home during children’s early life is a risk factor for current rhinitis(AOR 1.9,95%CI 1.3–2.9)and eczema(AOR 1.9,95%CI1.1–3.6).Risk factors for pneumonia were living in an apartment(AOR 1.4,95%CI 1.1–1.8),latex wall paint(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.7),dampness(AOR 1.4–1.5),breast feeding\3 months(AOR 1.3,95%CI 1.0–1.7),never airing bed linen in sunshine(AOR 1.3,95%CI1.3–1.6),and cleaning children’s room less frequently than once per day(AOR 1.4,95%CI 1.1–1.7).This study demonstrates that home indoor environmental and life style factors may influence the health of children in Xi’an.     

Toxin bioportides: exploring toxin biological activity and multifunctionality

Toxins have been shown to have many biological functions and to constitute a rich source of drugs and biotechnological tools. We focus on toxins that not only have a specific activity, but also contain residues responsible for transmembrane penetration, which can be considered bioportides—a class of cell-penetrating peptides that are also intrinsically bioactive. Bioportides are potential tools in pharmacology and biotechnology as they help deliver substances and nanoparticles to intracellular targets. Bioportides characterized so far are peptides derived from human proteins, such as cytochrome c (CYCS), calcitonin receptor (camptide), and endothelial nitric oxide synthase (nosangiotide). However, toxins are usually disregarded as potential bioportides. In this review, we discuss the inclusion of some toxins and molecules derived thereof as a new class of bioportides based on structure activity relationship, minimization, and biological activity studies. The comparative analysis of the amino acid residue composition of toxin-derived bioportides and their short molecular variants is an innovative analytical strategy which allows us to understand natural toxin multifunctionality in vivo and plan novel pharmacological and biotechnological products. Furthermore, we discuss how many bioportide toxins have a rigid structure with amphiphilic properties important for both cell penetration and bioactivity.     

The IQGAP-related protein DGAP1 mediates signaling to the actin cytoskeleton as an effector and a sequestrator of Rac1 GTPases

Proteins are typically categorized into protein families based on their domain organization. Yet, evolutionarily unrelated proteins can also be grouped together according to their common functional roles. Sequestering proteins constitute one such functional class, acting as macromolecular buffers and serving as an intracellular reservoir ready to release large quantities of bound proteins or other molecules upon appropriate stimulation. Another functional protein class comprises effector proteins, which constitute essential components of many intracellular signal transduction pathways. For instance, effectors of small GTP-hydrolases are activated upon binding a GTP-bound GTPase and thereupon participate in downstream interactions. Here we describe a member of the IQGAP family of scaffolding proteins, DGAP1 from Dictyostelium, which unifies the roles of an effector and a sequestrator in regard to the small GTPase Rac1. Unlike classical effectors, which bind their activators transiently leading to short-lived signaling complexes, interaction between DGAP1 and Rac1-GTP is stable and induces formation of a complex with actin-bundling proteins cortexillins at the back end of the cell. An oppositely localized Rac1 effector, the Scar/WAVE complex, promotes actin polymerization at the cell front. Competition between DGAP1 and Scar/WAVE for the common activator Rac1-GTP might provide the basis for the oscillatory re-polarization typically seen in randomly migrating Dictyostelium cells. We discuss the consequences of the dual roles exerted by DGAP1 and Rac1 in the regulation of cell motility and polarity, and propose that similar signaling mechanisms may be of general importance in regulating spatiotemporal dynamics of the actin cytoskeleton by small GTPases.     

Resolvin E1 and protectin D1 activate inflammation-resolution programmes

Resolution of acute inflammation is an active process essential for appropriate host responses, tissue protection and the return to homeostasis. During resolution, specific omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty-acid-derived mediators are generated within resolving exudates, including resolvin E1 (RvE1) and protectin D1 (PD1). It is thus important to pinpoint specific actions of RvE1 and PD1 in regulating tissue resolution. Here we report that RvE1 and PD1 in nanogram quantities promote phagocyte removal during acute inflammation by regulating leukocyte infiltration, increasing macrophage ingestion of apoptotic polymorphonuclear neutrophils in vivo and in vitro, and enhancing the appearance of phagocytes carrying engulfed zymosan in lymph nodes and spleen. In this tissue terrain, inhibition of either cyclooxygenase or lipoxygenases--pivotal enzymes in the temporal generation of both pro-inflammatory and pro-resolving mediators--caused a 'resolution deficit' that was rescued by RvE1, PD1 or aspirin-triggered lipoxin A4 analogue. Also, new resolution routes were identified that involve phagocytes traversing perinodal adipose tissues and non-apoptotic polymorphonuclear neutrophils carrying engulfed zymosan to lymph nodes. Together, these results identify new active components for postexudate resolution traffic, and demonstrate that RvE1 and PD1 are potent agonists for resolution of inflamed tissues.     

Genome sequence and analysis of the tuber crop potato

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is the world's most important non-grain food crop and is central to global food security. It is clonally propagated, highly heterozygous, autotetraploid, and suffers acute inbreeding depression. Here we use a homozygous doubled-monoploid potato clone to sequence and assemble 86% of the 844-megabase genome. We predict 39,031 protein-coding genes and present evidence for at least two genome duplication events indicative of a palaeopolyploid origin. As the first genome sequence of an asterid, the potato genome reveals 2,642 genes specific to this large angiosperm clade. We also sequenced a heterozygous diploid clone and show that gene presence/absence variants and other potentially deleterious mutations occur frequently and are a likely cause of inbreeding depression. Gene family expansion, tissue-specific expression and recruitment of genes to new pathways contributed to the evolution of tuber development. The potato genome sequence provides a platform for genetic improvement of this vital crop.     

Ebola virus entry requires the cholesterol transporter Niemann-Pick C1

Infections by the Ebola and Marburg filoviruses cause a rapidly fatal haemorrhagic fever in humans for which no approved antivirals are available. Filovirus entry is mediated by the viral spike glycoprotein (GP), which attaches viral particles to the cell surface, delivers them to endosomes and catalyses fusion between viral and endosomal membranes. Additional host factors in the endosomal compartment are probably required for viral membrane fusion; however, despite considerable efforts, these critical host factors have defied molecular identification. Here we describe a genome-wide haploid genetic screen in human cells to identify host factors required for Ebola virus entry. Our screen uncovered 67 mutations disrupting all six members of the homotypic fusion and vacuole protein-sorting (HOPS) multisubunit tethering complex, which is involved in the fusion of endosomes to lysosomes, and 39 independent mutations that disrupt the endo/lysosomal cholesterol transporter protein Niemann-Pick C1 (NPC1). Cells defective for the HOPS complex or NPC1 function, including primary fibroblasts derived from human Niemann-Pick type C1 disease patients, are resistant to infection by Ebola virus and Marburg virus, but remain fully susceptible to a suite of unrelated viruses. We show that membrane fusion mediated by filovirus glycoproteins and viral escape from the vesicular compartment require the NPC1 protein, independent of its known function in cholesterol transport. Our findings uncover unique features of the entry pathway used by filoviruses and indicate potential antiviral strategies to combat these deadly agents.