The probability of treatment success,failure and duration—what can be learned from empirical data to support decision making in clinical practice?

Empirical methods have been found to be superior to clinical judgment for the purpose of correctly identifying patients at risk for treatment failure and, hence, to enhance psychotherapy outcomes. The development and evaluation of an empirical approach aimed at supporting clinical decisions during the course of psychotherapy is described. The tool provides predictions based on a patient‐specific sampling strategy called the nearest neighbors method and on growth curve approaches to model an expected treatment course for each patient. Using session‐by‐session data from an outpatient center in the US (N = 4365), this new empirically derived decision model was evaluated and compared with a clinically based approach loosely based on an adaptation of clinically significant change concepts. The empirically derived decision system was found to be superior to the rational clinically based one in almost all measures of prediction accuracy, indicating its potential to identify patients at risk for treatment failure. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Venous valves in subclavian and internal jugular veins. Frequency, position, and structure in 100 autopsy cases

Valves in the subclavian and internal jugular veins were studied in 100 autopsy cases (52 men and 48 women; range, 18 to 91 years old; mean, 67 years). In 87 cases, valves were present in all 4 veins, and in 13 cases, valves anatomically were absent from 16 veins, 9 of which were the left internal jugular vein. The average distance from the valve to the junction with the innominate vein was 1.7 cm for the subclavian vein and 0.3 cm for the internal jugular vein. Cuspid height averaged 0.9 cm. Valves were bicuspid in 347 (90%) and unicuspid in 39 (10%); unicuspid valves were more common in the internal jugular vein than in the subclavian vein. Catheter-induced trauma was observed in 4 cases and implied in 4 more. These findings may have important implications concerning the failure, in some cases, of closed-chest cardiac resuscitation to maintain forward blood flow at adequate pressure.     

Decreased Risk of Renal Allograft Thrombosis Associated With Interleukin-2 Receptor Antagonists: A Report of the NAPRTCS

Graft thrombosis is the most common cause of first year graft failure in pediatric renal transplantation. The North American Pediatric Renal Transplant Cooperative Study (NAPRTCS) database was analyzed for cases of graft failure due to thrombosis among patients transplanted from 1998 to 2004. The impact of interleukin-2 (IL-2) receptor antagonists as induction therapy was determined. There were a total of 51 graft failures due to thrombosis among the 2750 reported renal transplants (1.85%) (95% CI (1.39%, 2.41%)). This represents the most common cause of graft loss during the first year post-transplant accounting for 35% of first year losses and 18% of all graft losses. The incidence of thrombosis among patients who received IL-2 receptor antibodies was 1.07% (12/1126) compared to 2.40% (39/1624) among patients who did not (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23, 0.84, p = 0.014). Use of IL-2 receptor blockade was the only significant prognostic factor in a multivariate model with previously identified risk factors. Analysis of NAPRTCS data found that the use of IL-2 receptor antibodies as induction therapy is associated with a significantly decreased risk of graft failure due to thrombosis. This provocative finding requires further investigation to determine whether thrombotic failure can be decreased by this therapeutic strategy.     

American Indian--Alaska Native youth health.

OBJECTIVE--To assess risk behaviors, health problems, worries and concerns, and resiliency-promoting factors among American Indian-Alaska Native adolescents. DESIGN--Survey. SETTING--Nonurban schools from eight Indian Health Service areas. PARTICIPANTS--A total of 13,454 seventh- through 12th-grade American Indian-Alaska Native youths. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--revised version of the Adolescent Health Survey, a comprehensive, anonymous, self-report questionnaire with 162 items addressing 10 dimensions of health. RESULTS--Poor physical health was reported by 2% of the study sample and was significantly correlated with social risk factors of physical and/or sexual abuse, suicide attempts, substance abuse, poor school performance, and nutritional inadequacies. Injury risk behaviors included never wearing seatbelts (44%), drinking and driving (37.9% of driving 10th through 12th graders), and riding with a driver who had been drinking (21.8%). Physical and sexual abuse prevalence was 10% and 13%, respectively, with 23.9% of females reporting physical abuse and 21.6% of females reporting sexual abuse by the 12th grade. Almost 6% of the entire sample endorsed signs of severe emotional distress. Eleven percent of the teens surveyed knew someone who had killed himself or herself, and 17% had attempted suicide themselves. Sixty-five percent of males and 56.8% of females reported having had intercourse by the 12th grade. Weekly or more frequent alcohol use rose from 8.2% of seventh graders to 14.1% by the 12th grade; for males, the survey noted an increase in regular alcohol use of 3% to 5% a year to 27.3% by the 12th grade. For each variable measured, rates are much higher for American Indian adolescents than those for rural white Minnesota youth, except for age at first intercourse and alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS--American Indian-Alaska Native adolescents reported high rates of health-compromising behaviors and risk factors related to unintentional injury, substance use, poor self-assessed health status, emotional distress, and suicide. Interventions must be culturally sensitive, acknowledge the heterogeneity of Indian populations, be grounded in cultural traditions that promote health, and be developed with full participation of the involved communities.     

Risk of spinal cord dysfunction in patients undergoing thoracoabdominal aortic replacement.

The records of 150 consecutive patients undergoing thoracoabdominal aortic replacement from 1980 to 1991 were retrospectively reviewed. There were 89 men and 61 women; mean age was 67.8 years (range: 33 to 88 years). Since June 1989, a multimodality prospective perioperative protocol was used to reduce the risk of spinal cord dysfunction. Ischemia is minimized by complete intercostal reimplantation whenever possible, cerebrospinal fluid drainage, and maintenance of proximal hypertension during cross-clamping. Spinal cord metabolism is reduced by moderate hypothermia, high-dose barbiturates, and avoidance of hyperglycemia. Reperfusion injury is minimized by the use of mannitol, steroids, and calcium channel blockers. Ninety-seven percent of patients survived long enough for evaluation of their neurologic function. Spinal cord dysfunction was reduced from 6 of 108 (6%) in the preprotocol group to 0 of 42 in the protocol group (0%) (p less than 0.01). The overall 30-day operative mortality was not significantly different between the groups (9% versus 12%, p = NS). A multimodality protocol appears to be effective in reducing the risk of spinal cord injury during thoracoabdominal aortic replacement.