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Background
Payers frequently rely on budget impact model (BIM) results to help determine drug coverage policy and its effect on their bottom line. It is unclear whether BIMs typically overestimate or underestimate real-world budget impact.Objective
We examined how different modeling assumptions influenced the results of 6 BIMs from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER).Study Design
Retrospective analysis of pharmaceutical sales data.Methods
From ICER reports issued before 2016, we collected estimates of 3 BIM outputs: aggregate therapy cost (ie, cost to treat the patient population with a particular therapy), therapy uptake, and price. We compared these against real-world estimates that we generated using drug sales data. We considered 2 classes of BIM estimates: those forecasting future uptake of new agents, which assumed “unmanaged uptake,” and those describing the contemporaneous market state (ie, estimates of current, managed uptake and budget impact for compounds already on the market).Results
Differences between ICER's estimates and our own were largest for forecasted studies. Here, ICER's uptake estimates exceeded real-world estimates by factors ranging from 7.4 (sacubitril/valsartan) to 54 (hepatitis C treatments). The “unmanaged uptake” assumption (removed from ICER's approach in 2017) yields large deviations between BIM estimates and real-world consumption. Nevertheless, in some cases, ICER's BIMs that relied on current market estimates also deviated substantially from real-world sales data.Conclusions
This study highlights challenges with forecasting budget impact. In particular, assumptions about uptake and data source selection can greatly influence the accuracy of results. 相似文献Introduction
Physician communication impacts patient outcomes. However, communication skills, especially around difficult conversations, remain suboptimal, and there is no clear way to determine the validity of entrustment decisions. The aims of this study were to 1) describe the development of a simulation-based mastery learning (SBML) curriculum for breaking bad news (BBN) conversation skills and 2) set a defensible minimum passing standard (MPS) to ensure uniform skill acquisition among learners.Innovation
An SBML BBN curriculum was developed for fourth-year medical students. An assessment tool was created to evaluate the acquisition of skills involved in a BBN conversation. Pilot testing was completed to confirm improvement in skill acquisition and set the MPS.Outcomes
A BBN assessment tool containing a 15-item checklist and six scaled items was developed. Students' checklist performance improved significantly at post-test compared to baseline (mean 65.33%, SD = 12.09% vs mean 88.67%, SD = 9.45%, P < 0.001). Students were also significantly more likely to have at least a score of 4 (on a five-point scale) for the six scaled questions at post-test. The MPS was set at 80%, requiring a score of 12 items on the checklist and at least 4 of 5 for each scaled item. Using the MPS, 30% of students would require additional training after post-testing.Comments
We developed a SBML curriculum with a comprehensive assessment of BBN skills and a defensible competency standard. Future efforts will expand the mastery model to larger cohorts and assess the impact of rigorous education on patient care outcomes. 相似文献Methods: Day 3 to day 7 after admission to a stroke unit, 64 persons with stroke were assessed twice, using the SwePASS, by two physiotherapists. Inter-rater reliability was determined using percentage-agreement and the rank-invariant method: relative position, relative concentration, and relative rank variance.
Results: The raters showed a percentage agreement of ≥75% in the assessments using the SwePASS. For 9 of the 12 items, the percentage agreement was >80%. For 8 of the 12 items, there was a statistically significant change in position, revealed in relative position values between 0.08 and 0.15. Three items had statistically significant positive relative concentration values between ?0.11 and 0.10. Except for a statistically significant negligible relative variance value of 0.01 for the items 1 and 8, there was no relative variance.
Conclusions: The SwePASS shows an acceptable inter-rater reliability, albeit with potential for improvement. The reliability can be improved by a consensus how to interpret the scale between the raters prior to implementation in the clinic. 相似文献