Quantile Regression for Location‐Scale Time Series Models with Conditional Heteroscedasticity

This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models with asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity errors. The classical mean‐variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location‐scale models so that the quantile regression method can be naturally geared into the considered models. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the quantile regression estimator is established in location‐scale time series models under mild conditions. In the application of this result to ARMA‐generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, more primitive conditions are deduced to obtain the asymptotic properties. For illustration, a simulation study and a real data analysis are provided.     

Consistency of minimizing a penalized density power divergence estimator for mixing distribution

In this paper, we study the MDPDE (minimizing a density power divergence estimator), proposed by Basu et al. (Biometrika 85:549–559, 1998), for mixing distributions whose component densities are members of some known parametric family. As with the ordinary MDPDE, we also consider a penalized version of the estimator, and show that they are consistent in the sense of weak convergence. A simulation result is provided to illustrate the robustness. Finally, we apply the penalized method to analyzing the red blood cell SLC data presented in Roeder (J Am Stat Assoc 89:487–495, 1994). This research was supported (in part) by KOSEF through Statistical Research Center for Complex Systems at Seoul National University.     

Test for Parameter Change in Linear Processes Based on Whittle's Estimator

In this article, we develop a cusum test for testing for parameter changes in linear processes based on Whittle's estimator. It is shown that under regularity conditions, the test statistic converges to the sup of a Brownian bridge. The result is particularly useful in handling the change point test in stationary ARMA processes. A simulation result is provided for illustration.     

On entropy goodness-of-fit test based on integrated distribution function

In this study, we consider an entropy-type goodness-of-fit (GOF) test based on integrated distribution functions. We first construct the test for the simple vs. simple hypothesis and then extend it to the composite hypothesis case. It is shown that under regularity conditions, the null limiting distribution of the proposed test is a function of a Brownian bridge. A bootstrap method is also considered and is shown to be weakly consistent. A simulation study and real data analysis are conducted for illustration.     

Mildly explosive autoregression with mixing innovations

In this paper, the limit distribution of the least squares estimator for mildly explosive autoregressive models with strong mixing innovations is established, which is shown to be Cauchy as in the iid case. The result is applied to identify the onset and the end of an explosive period of an econometric time series. Simulations and data analysis are also conducted to demonstrate the usefulness of the result.     

A note on the Jarque–Bera normality test for GARCH innovations

In this paper, we consider the validity of the Jarque–Bera normality test whose construction is based on the residuals, for the innovations of GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) models. It is shown that the asymptotic behavior of the original form of the JB test adopted in this paper is identical to that of the test statistic based on true errors. The simulation study also confirms the validity of the original form since it outperforms other available normality tests.     

On score vector- and residual-based CUSUM tests in ARMA–GARCH models

In this study, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in ARMA–GARCH models. We suggest two types of cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests, namely, score vector- and residual-based CUSUM tests. It is shown that under regularity conditions, their limiting null distributions are the sup of Brownian bridges. A simulation study and real data analysis are conducted for illustration.     

Residual-based CUSUM of squares test for Poisson integer-valued GARCH models

This study considers the problem of testing for a parameter change in integer-valued time series models in which the conditional density of current observations is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. As a test, we consider the CUSUM of the squares test based on the residuals from INGARCH models and find that the test converges weakly to the supremum of a Brownian bridge. A simulation study demonstrates its superiority to the residual and standardized residual-based CUSUM tests of Kang and Lee [Parameter change test for Poisson autoregressive models. Scand J Statist. 2014;41:1136–1152] and Lee and Lee [CUSUM tests for general nonlinear inter-valued GARCH models: comparison study. Ann Inst Stat Math. 2019;71:1033–1057.] as well as the CUSUM of squares test based on standardized residuals.     

On the Cusum test for parameter changes in garch(1,1) Models

This paper considers the problem of testing parameter constancy in GARCH(1,1) models. A cusum of squares test is propesed in analogy Of Incl´n and Tiao (1394)'s statistic. its limiting distribution is derived via using the invariance principle for mixingaie sequences obtained by McLeish(1975). Simulation results are illustrated to demonstrate the validity of the cusum test.     

The Cusum of Squares Test for Scale Changes in Infinite Order Moving Average Processes

In this paper we consider the problem of testing for a scale change in the infinite order moving average process X _j = _{i =0} a _{i j i} , where _j are i.i.d. r.v.s with E ₁ < for some > 0. In performing the test, a cusum of squares test statistic analogous to Inclan & Tiao's (1994) statistic is considered. It is well-known from the literature that outliers affect test procedures leading to false conclusions. In order to remedy this, a cusum of squares test based on trimmed observations is considered. It is demonstrated that this test is robust against outliers, is valid for infinite variance processes as well. Simulation results are given for illustration.