商业银行客户流失风险预警模型研究

目前,商业银行在客户竞争方面面临着严峻挑战.面对激励的市场竞争,如何尽可能留住老客户,减少客户流失是目前商业银行应重点关注的问题.对于客户流失风险的问题,可以采取的办法是建立客户流失预警模型,对可能未来发生的客户流失进行预测,以便及时采取措施预防客户流失,制定有效的控制策略.文章采用基于显著性检验的决策树模型——卡方自动交互检测法(以下简称CHAID),建立商业银行客户流失预警模型,并通过十字交叉验证等方法对模型进行评估,提高模型的准确性.最后根据模型反映的情况,对商业银行的客户流失风险提出相应建议.     

基于权力运作理论的评标权力寻租的防范研究

文章针对评标权力寻租问题,借鉴权力运作理论作为理论依据,将评标委员会成员的权力配置、授予和运行引发的利益冲突作为分析线索,阐明评标权力寻租行为发生的内在逻辑以及相关影响因素。沿着权力运作理论与寻租理论这两条主线为构建防范评标中的权力寻租体系提出构想,建立相应权力制约机制;权力配置时构建报酬机制和监督机制;权力授予时建立规范的评标人员制度;权力运行时提高程序运行的透明度。     

北京建设世界城市的经济控制力与人才战略研究

世界城市因其具有全球经济控制力的功能而成为城市发展的最高级别,而形成经济控制力最直接、最重要的源泉和驱动力是人才。北京建设世界城市,应根据世界城市形成和发展的一般规律,着眼于经济控制力形成的动力源泉,构建与经济战略配套逻辑上升的人才战略,增强北京在区域与全球经济中的控制力,实现城市形态的质变。     

Innovation and the Operational Performance of Newly Established Small and Medium Enterprises in Taiwan

New Enterprises have been sprouted out prosperously in Taiwan. According to business income tax data, 143 thousand new enterprises were established between 1996–1998, which accounts for about 25% of total number of enterprises, and 98.68% of these new enterprises are SMEs.In this research, a randomly sampled 1,047 new enterprises which established after 1996 were surveyed through telephone. The survey discovered that three-quarters of these new enterprises adopted at least one out of nine types of innovative activities which were listed in the questionnaire.The logistic regression results of this study show that three main areas of innovation which were grouped from the nine activities by principal component analysis all had a positive relationship with operational performance of new enterprises. Innovative action had the biggest impact on sales growth, whilst the cultivation of an innovative atmosphere and the ability to innovate within the organization had the biggest impact on profits. In short, entrepreneurs in Taiwan are actively innovating, and this innovation is reflected in the performance of their enterprises.     

现代经济学在美国

现代经济学的分析框架由三个重要部分组成：视角（perspective)、参照系（reference）或基准点（benchmark）和分析工具（analytical tools）。效率是经济学家分析问题的着眼点；参照第在分析框架中居于核心位置；分析工具是重要的分析问题的手段。以上对理解现代经济学很重要。数学在经济学中的作用分两个方面：一是在理论分析中的作用，它可以逼你把前提假定写清楚，使你在逻辑推导中少出错，并运用已有的定理把不相通的结论连结起来；二是数学在教学中的作用，它可以以同一标准将经济学知识传授给很多人。但是，数学的作用只能是工具。经济学的思想是最重要的。     

Toward an Understanding of Dynamic Moral Decision Making: Model-Free and Model-Based Learning

In business settings, decision makers facing moral issues often experience the challenges of continuous changes. This dynamic process has been less examined in previous literature on moral decision making. We borrow theories on learning strategies and computational models from decision neuroscience to explain the updating and learning mechanisms underlying moral decision processes. Specifically, we present two main learning strategies: model-free learning, wherein the values of choices are updated in a trial-and-error fashion sustaining the formation of habits and model-based learning, wherein the brain updates more general cognitive maps and associations, thus sustaining flexible and state-dependent behaviors. We then summarize studies explaining the neuro-computational processes of both learning strategies—the calculation of prediction errors and valuation. We conclude by emphasizing how the incorporation of dynamic aspects in moral decision making could open new avenues for understanding moral behaviors in a changing world.     

矿业权的流转及收益现值法在矿业权评估中的应用

本文论述了矿业权的流转过程和特点， 以及收益现值法（即国际上通用的贴现现金流量法） 在矿业权评估中的适用范围和三个关键技术参数， 即预期年限、折现率、资产预期年收益 （即现金流量预测） 的取值     

甘肃承接产业转移的必要性和制约因素分析

文章首先从产业梯度、产业结构、劳动力就业和区域发展四方面分析了甘肃承接产业转移的现实意义和必要性.通过分析甘肃承接产业转移的现状,发现基础设施落后、产业集群缺乏、劳动力资源水平低、政府行政效率低等因素,严重制约了甘肃承接产业转移的进程.通过对这些问题的研究分析,提出了相应的对策建议.     

汽车零部件企业采购物流的运输成本控制

以某汽车零部件企业近3年从北美供应商原材料采购量和运输费用为依据,运用相关性分析求出两者相关系数,并且使用目标成本控制法,探讨如何根据分析数据控制下年采购运输成本。     

基于成本优化的商品交易市场选址方法探讨

商品交易市场的优化选址是一个多变量函数.有别于其它现代商业业态的选址思路,基于成本优化的商品交易市场选址应综合考虑商品中市场建设、供给运输、库存、选址排他性等因素,以商品交易市场运营总成本最低为目标,再综合考虑其它因素,建立商品交易市场选址的模型.这样可为长期规模经营的商品交易市场提升营运效率提供较好的基础.