Defining deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland: an economic evaluation

This article simulates deep decarbonization pathways for a small open economy that lacks the usual avenues for large CO₂ reductions – heavy industry and power generation. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the energy and economic impacts of the transition to only one ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This represents a 76% reduction with respect to 1990 levels, while the population is expected to be 46% larger and GPD to increase by 90%. The article discusses several options and scenarios that are compatible with this emissions target and compares them with a reference scenario that extrapolates already-decided climate and energy policy instruments. We show that the ambitious target is attainable at moderate welfare costs, even if it needs very high carbon prices, and that these costs are lower when either CO₂ can be captured and sequestered or electricity consumption can be taxed sufficiently to stabilize it.

Policy relevance

In the context of COP 21, all countries must propose intended contributions that involve deep decarbonization of their economy over the next decades. This article defines and analyses such pathways for Switzerland, taking into consideration the existing energy demand and supply and also already-defined climate policies. It draws several scenarios that are compatible with a target of 1 ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This objective is very challenging, especially with the nuclear phase out decided after the disaster in Fukushima and the political decision to balance electricity trade. Nevertheless, it is possible to design several feasible pathways that are based on different options. The economic cost is significant but affordable for the Swiss economy. The insights are relevant not only for Switzerland, but also for other industrialized countries when defining their INDCs.     

Assessment of balanced burden-sharing in the 2050 EU climate/energy roadmap: a metamodeling approach

In this paper we propose a non-cooperative meta-game approach to designing and assessing climate agreements among 28 European countries that will be compatible with the EU 2050 climate target. Our proposed game model is identified through statistical emulation of a large set of numerical simulations performed with the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. In this game, the players are the 28 European countries, the payoffs are related to welfare losses due to abatements and the strategies correspond to the supply of emission rights on the European carbon market. We show it is possible to design a fair burden-sharing rule that equalizes welfare losses between countries to approximately 1.2 % of their discounted household consumption. The associated European CO₂ price in 2050 reaches $1100, a figure in line with previous studies. Lastly, the paper discusses various implementation issues of these types of negotiations and evaluates the cost of non-cooperation among EU countries.     

Tectonic shortening and gravitational spreading in the Gulf of Cadiz accretionary wedge: Observations from multi-beam bathymetry and seismic profiling

The Gulf of Cadiz lies astride the complex plate boundary between Africa and Eurasia west of the Betic-Rif mountain belt. We report on the results of recent bathymetric swathmapping and multi-channel seismic surveys carried out here. The seafloor is marked by contrasting morphological provinces, spanning the SW Iberian and NW Moroccan continental margins, abyssal plains and an elongate, arcuate, accretionary wedge. A wide variety of tectonic and gravitational processes appear to have shaped these structures. Active compressional deformation of the wedge is suggested by folding and thrusting of the frontal sedimentary layers as well as basal duplexing in deeper internal units. There is evidence for simultaneous gravitational spreading occurring upslope. The very shallow mean surface and basal slopes of the accretionary wedge (1° each) indicate a very weak decollement layer, geometrically similar to the Mediterranean Ridge accretionary complex. Locally steep slopes (up to 10°) indicate strongly focused, active deformation and potential gravitational instabilities. The unusual surface morphology of the upper accretionary wedge includes “raft-tectonics” type fissures and abundant sub-circular depressions. Dissolution and/or diapiric processes are proposed to be involved in the formation of these depressions.     

Seismic stratigraphy of the NW Moroccan Atlantic continental shelf and Quaternary deformation at the offshore termination of the southern Rif front

A recent high resolution seismic survey was carried out along the North-West Moroccan Atlantic continental shelf to perform sequence stratigraphy and to better understand the link between the onshore observations across the western termination of the Rif front and the multibeam bathymetric data previously collected across the Gulf of Cadiz. Seismic interpretation clearly shows evidence of deformation affecting the Pleistocene sedimentary cover. This is mainly located between the Lalla Zahra ridge and the Neogene nappes that outcrop at the seabed to the North of Larache, where the identified structures bound the upper part of a gravitationally spreading lobe and are interpreted to be developed by activation of the major tectonic structures located at the southern front of the Rif Cordillera. The offshore extension of the Lalla Zahra Ridge is characterised by an east-west trending major folded and faulted corridor. This structure marks the active front of Prerifan area and corresponds to a major Quaternary kinematic boundary in the western prolongation of the ENE-WSW trending Jebha fault.