Could baseline establishment be counterproductive for emissions reduction? Insights from Vietnam’s building sector

This article provides insights into the role of institutions involved in climate governance working towards a future low-carbon society at the national level, within the global climate change governance architecture. Specifically, it contributes to understanding the fragmented governance of energy efficiency policy in developing countries by focussing on Vietnam’s building sector, identifying key institutions related to underlying discourses, national and international power relations, resource distribution and coalitions. It uses the case of baseline setting in developing Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to illustrate institutional dynamics, nationally and transnationally, as well as to question whether demands for baseline setting achieve the ideal trade-off between actual GHG emissions reduction and institutionalized demands for accountability. The analysis reveals that, in addition to domestic efforts and challenges, the international agenda greatly influences the energy efficiency policy arena. The article presents lessons to be learnt about policy processes from the specific Vietnamese case, reflecting on the role of international actors and discourses in it. Finally, it argues for the abolition of baselines in favour of adequate monitoring and evaluation, from the perspective that requirement for deviation from fictitious baselines is unproductive and only serves an international techno-managerial discourse.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Baseline establishment is commonly considered an initial step in developing NAMAs, in order to facilitate the demonstration of a deviation from such baselines. The requirement to produce baselines is traditionally not questioned by policy practitioners. Thus, significant development resources are allocated to the establishment of baselines and the bridging of data gaps, often without consideration as to whether baselines are a necessary instrument for NAMA implementation. We suggest omitting the lengthy and resource-consuming practice of establishing baselines and recommend proceeding forthwith to the planning and implementation of mitigation and energy efficiency policies. As conditions vary significantly in different contexts, it would be more appropriate to measure the initial situation, establishing the ‘base point’, and monitor development from that point. The present article might serve as motivation for policymakers to question traditional approaches to policy development and consider alternatives to maximize the cost efficacy of NAMA programmes and facilitate their implementation.     

Wave erosion of a massive artificial coastal landslide

The Lone Tree landslide is located on the coast north of San Francisco, California, and is unusual in that it is positioned within the San Andreas fault zone. Its material ranges from mud through to boulders, which makes the slide particularly susceptible to mass movement. Movement of its western half increased following the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989, closing an important highway for over a year, at which time a large cut-and-fill operation was undertaken to remove the upper portion of the slide so it would create no future disruption. Material cut from the upper slide was dumped below the highway, with the debris extending into the ocean. This created an artificial debris fill that is equivalent to a massive natural landslide, and a unique opportunity to monitor its erosion. Rainfall quickly eroded a series of rills into the face of the artificially created landslide, but the concentration of gravel and cobbles armoured these small channels, greatly reducing the rate of subsequent erosion. Waves cut away the toe, and the focus of this paper is on the development of a model to analyse the frequency of wave attack in terms of tide levels and wave conditions. A beach consisting of cobbles and boulders formed at the toe of the debris, offering partial protection and reducing the rate of continued erosion. In the short term, armouring of the rills and the development of a fronting beach have reduced the overall erosion of the debris and the transfer of sediment to the ocean. In the longer term, the formation of secondary slumps can be expected to renew the erosion. Eventually the morphology of the debris fill should approach the configuration of the natural landslide, an unmodified portion of which remains adjacent to the artificial fill. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Improved Gas Chromatographic Method for the Determination of C6–C12 Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Soil Water

In this work, investigations dealing with the determination of hydrocarbons in contaminated soil water are presented. The hydrocarbons under investigation range from low to high volatility compounds. A GC‐FID method was developed that due to its efficiency, routine suitability, relative rapidity, and low cost is suitable for the analysis of complex chemical mixtures of highly volatile hydrocarbons (with boiling points between 69 and 190°C). The standard used was a gasoline mixture with boiling points ranging from 100 to 190°C. For this standard, no supplementary preparation is needed and it is suitable for the whole range of hydrocarbons under investigation. The determination of the hydrocarbon content of the samples was performed applying univariate and multivariate statistical analysis to the experimental data. In the characterization of a contamination with highly volatile hydrocarbons of soil water originating from different depth layers from the chemistry location Leuna (Sachsen‐Anhalt, Germany), the advantages of a multivariate method are demonstrated in exemplary manner.     

Evidence for explosive volcanic density currents on certain Martian volcanoes

A number of Martian volcanoes, especially Ceraunius Tholus, Uranius Tholus, Uranius Patera, and Hecates Tholus, show morphological features strikingly different from those of shield volcanoes but analogous to those of terrestrial cones and composite volcanoes such as Barcena Volcano, Mexico. The most distinguishing overall features are steep slope angles, and Krakatoa-type caldera morphologies. Erosional features comprise numerous radial channels which extend from below the rim toward the base of the dome, and in some cases, patterns of anastamosing gullies which contribute to the main radial channels. Constructional features include blanketed flanks interpreted as dune or fan-like deposits of ash, and perhaps lava deltas. A possible explanation for the morphological features associated with these volcanoes is that they were formed by explosive volcanic density currents. Such eruptions would be expected on Mars where a rising magma came in contact with a thick layer of permafrost generating a base surge or after a Vulcanian explosion of a separate gas phase producing a nuée ardente. Crater age data from the surface of Martian domes and shields indicate that such explosive activity occurred more frequently early in Martian geologic history. This is more consistent with the view that the volcanic density flows were base surges rather than nuées ardentes, the melting of permafrost supplying the water required in base surge generation. If atmospheric conditions were more clement at the time, allowing the recycling of water back to the ground water, then the length of duration of phreatic activity would have been longer, not being limited by depletion time of the local permafrost reservoir.     

Comparisons of the hydraulics of water flows in Martian outflow channels with flows of similar scale on earth

Comparisons are undertaken between the hydraulics of channelized water flows on Mars, large terrestrial rivers, deep-sea turbidity currents, and the catastrophic flow of Lake Missoula floods. Expected bottom shear stresses, velocities and discharges, flow powers, and other parameters are computed for each. Sand transport rates and the times required for channel erosion are estimated for Mangala Channel. These calculations indicate that the turbidity currents and Lake Missoula floods were similar to channelized water flow on Mars in their flow characteristics and in their abilities to erode and transport sediments. Like the Lake Missoula floods, deep-sea turbidity currents are catastrophic in character, being formed by the slumping of large masses of sediment trapped in submarine canyons or deposited on the continental slope. The repeated flows originating from submarine canyons have formed deep-sea channels similar in scale and overall morphology to the Martian outflow channels. The submarine canyon can be viewed as the counterpart of the chaotic terrain or crater which serves as sources for many Martian channels. Like most Martian outflow channels, the deep-sea channels generally lack tributaries or have only minor tributaries, instead consisting of a single pronounced channel extending for several hundred kilometers from its origin at the submarine canyon to deep abyssal depths. The channels vary considerably in dimensions, but most commonly have widths in the range 2 to 15 km with reliefs of 50 to 450 meters, again similar in scale to the Martian channels. Other similarities include sections of anastomosing channels, a general lack of pronounced meandering, and a lack of an apparent “delta” where the transported sediments are deposited. The similarities of channel morphology and flow hydraulics indicate the deep-sea channels and turbidity currents can be useful in furthering our understanding of the Martian outflow channels. Physical processes in the deep-sea occur under a reduced effective gravity because of the overlying water with its buoyancy. The deep-sea channels provide another set of Earth-based channels which can be studied to determine the effects of gravity on such factors as channel meandering and anastomosing characteristics.     

Increasing wave heights and extreme value projections: The wave climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Deep-water wave buoy data offshore from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington) document that the annual averages of deep-water significant wave heights (SWHs) have increased at a rate of approximately 0.015 m/yr since the mid-1970s, while averages of the five highest SWHs per year have increased at the appreciably greater rate of 0.071 m/yr. Histograms of the hourly-measured SWHs more fully document this shift toward higher values over the decades, demonstrating that both the relatively low waves of the summer and the highest SWHs generated by winter storms have increased. Wave heights associated with higher percentiles in the SWH cumulative distribution function are shown to be increasing at progressively faster rates than those associated with lower percentiles. This property is demonstrated to be a direct result of the probability distributions for annual wave climates having lognormal- or Weibull-like forms in that a moderate increase in the mean SWH produces significantly greater increases in the tail of the distribution. Both the linear regressions of increasing annual averages and the evolving probability distribution of the SWH climate, demonstrating the non-stationarity of the Pacific Northwest wave climate, translate into substantial increases in extreme value projections, important in coastal engineering design and in quantifying coastal hazards. Buoy data have been analyzed to assess this response in the wave climate by employing various time-dependent extreme value models that directly compute the progressive increases in the 25- to 100-year projections. The results depend somewhat on the assumptions made in the statistical procedures, on the numbers of storm-generated SWHs included, and on the threshold value for inclusion in the analyses, but the results are consistent with the linear regressions of annual averages and the observed shifts in the histograms.     

Fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet recorded in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of periglacial loess from Ukraine

The azimuth of imbrication of minimum magnetic susceptibility axes in the youngest loess from Ukraine defines prevailing wind directions during aeolian sedimentation. It changes along the studied sections. These changes can be directly correlated with the fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. The northern and northeastern winds noted in the loess succession separated by a period when southwestern to southeastern winds were predominant may be correlated with two main phases of ice‐sheet advance during the Last Glacial Maximum. The ice‐sheet advances towards the areas of loess deposition generated katabatic winds that influenced aeolian sedimentation in the periglacial zone. A period of relatively stable wind directions during a younger phase of the Last Glacial Maximum was interrupted by periods with more chaotic wind regime most probably caused by fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet during its retreat from the peri‐Baltic part of Europe. These intervals occur where initial soils developed. The distribution of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility axes defined along the periglacial loess sections from central and eastern Europe can serve to constrain fluctuations of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.     

Increasing eutrophication in the coastal seas of China from 1970 to 2050

We analyzed the potential for eutrophication in major seas around China: the Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea and South China Sea. We model the riverine inputs of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) to coastal seas from 1970 to 2050. Between 1970 and 2000 dissolved N and P inputs to the three seas increased by a factor of 2–5. In contrast, inputs of particulate N and P and dissolved Si, decreased due to damming of rivers. Between 2000 and 2050, the total N and P inputs increase further by 30–200%. Sewage is the dominant source of dissolved N and P in the Bohai Gulf, while agriculture is the primary source in the other seas. In the future, the ratios of Si to N and P decrease, which increases the risk of harmful algal blooms. Sewage treatment may reduce this risk in the Bohai Gulf, and agricultural management in the other seas.