A bootstrap based space–time surveillance model with an application to crime occurrences

This study proposes a bootstrap-based space–time surveillance model. Designed to find emerging hotspots in near-real time, the bootstrap based model is characterized by its use of past occurrence information and bootstrap permutations. Many existing space–time surveillance methods, using population at risk data to generate expected values, have resulting hotspots bounded by administrative area units and are of limited use for near-real time applications because of the population data needed. However, this study generates expected values for local hotspots from past occurrences rather than population at risk. Also, bootstrap permutations of previous occurrences are used for significant tests. Consequently, the bootstrap-based model, without the requirement of population at risk data, (1) is free from administrative area restriction, (2) enables more frequent surveillance for continuously updated registry database, and (3) is readily applicable to criminology and epidemiology surveillance. The bootstrap-based model performs better for space–time surveillance than the space–time scan statistic. This is shown by means of simulations and an application to residential crime occurrences in Columbus, OH, year 2000.     

Molecular simulations of metal adsorption to bacterial surfaces

The atomic-scale interactions that occur between cations and the metal-binding cell wall components common to many gram-positive bacteria were investigated using molecular simulations techniques. We examined the adsorption of Cd and Pb onto peptidoglycan and teichoic acid components of the bacterial cell wall using classical energy force field methods. Within the framework of molecular mechanics and the Cerius² modeling software, we used energy minimization, conformational analysis, and molecular dynamics to examine the different components of the cell wall and to determine relative binding energies and structural configurations of the cell wall components, both with and without the metals present. Electronic structure calculations of representative metal-organic complexes validate the more practical classical methods required in simulating the large number of atoms associated with the cell wall components. The classical force field simulations were conducted in both gas phase and solvated periodic cells. Force field-based simulation techniques can adequately describe the interactions of Cd with the cell wall, defining both metal ion coordinations and binding distances. However, the classical force field approach is inconsistent in describing the observed Pb-cell wall interactions due to possible limitations in the force field parameters, the propensity for Pb to form hydroxides at circumneutral pH, or the dominance of other adsorption mechanisms.     

A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology

Convenient bivariate densities found in the literature are often unsuitable for modeling hydrologic variates. They either constrain the range of association between variates, or fix the form of the marginal distributions. The bivariate meta-Gaussian density is constructed by embedding the normal quantile transform of each variate into the Gaussian law. The density can represent a full range of association between variates and admits arbitrarily specified marginal distributions. Modeling and estimation can be decomposed into i) independent analyses of the marginal distributions, and ii) investigation of the dependence structure. Both statistical and judgmental estimation procedures are possible. Some comparisons to recent applications of bivariate densities in the hydrologic literature motivate and illustrate the model.     

Magmatic and hydrothermal inclusions in carbonatite of the Magnet Cove Complex,Arkansas

The carbonatite at Magnet Cove, Arkansas, USA contains a great variety and abundance of magmatic and hydrothermal inclusions that provide an informative, though fragmentary, record of the original carbonatite melt and of late hydrothermal solutions which permeated the complex in postmagmatic time. These inclusions were studied by optical and scanning electron microscopy. Primary magmatic inclusions in monticellite indicate that the original carbonatite melt contained approximately 49.7 wt% CaO, 16.7% CO₂, 15.7% SiO₂, 11.4% H₂O, 4.4% FeO+Fe₂O₃, 1.1% P₂O₅ and 1.0% MgO. The melt was richer in SiO₂ and iron oxides than the carbonatite as now exposed; this is attributed to crystal settling and relative enrichment of calcite at shallower levels. The density of the carbonatite melt as revealed by the magmatic inclusions was approximately 2.2–2.3 g/cc. Such a light melt should separate rapidly from any denser parent material and could be driven forcibly into overlying crustal rocks by buoyant forces alone. Fluid inclusions in apatite suggest that a separate (immiscible) phase composed of supercritical CO₂ fluid of low density coexisted with the carbonatite magma, but the inclusion record in this mineral is inconclusive with respect to the nature of any other coexisting fluids. Maximum total pressure during CO₂ entrapment was about 450 bars, suggesting depths of 1.5 km or less for apatite crystallization and supporting earlier proposals of a shallow, subvolcanic setting for the complex. Numerous secondary inclusions in the Magnet Cove calcite contain an intriguing variety of daughter minerals including some 19 alkali, alkaline earth and rare earth carbonates, sulfates and chlorides few of which are known as macroscopic phases in the complex. The exotic fluids from which the daughter minerals formed are inferred to have cooled and diluted through time by progressive mixing with local groundwaters. These fluids may be responsible for certain late veins and elemental enrichments associated with the complex.     

Use of Rhodamine water tracer in the marshland upwelling system

Rhodamine water tracer (RWT) was used to characterize the migration of waste water within the saline subsurface of a marshland upwelling system (MUS), which is an alternative on-site waste water treatment system for coastal areas. Field tracer studies were performed to investigate the fresh waste water plume movement within the saline ground water. Pore velocities were calculated using first detection times and ranged from 0.68 to 10.7 x 10(-4) cm/sec for the loamy sandy soil matrix present at the site. Use of RWT in the field also allowed determination of main and preferential flowpaths. One- and two-dimensional laboratory experiments were performed using silica sand to investigate the interactions of the organically rich waste water with RWT within the zone surrounding the point of injection (one-dimensional) and the impact of background salinity on plume movement (two-dimensional). The results from these studies were used to help explain the field data. One-dimensional breakthrough curves revealed retardation factors for the RWT in the waste water mixture of 1.73 to 1.90. These results were similar to other researchers, indicating little interaction between the waste water and RWT. Variations in pore water salinity (5, 15, 25, and 35 ppt) were found to have a significant effect on pore water velocities of the fresh water plume (two-dimensional), indicating the need to incorporate background salinities into the design process for MUS.     

Climate change and coastal flooding in Metro Boston: impacts and adaptation strategies

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825 km long coastline of Metro Boston, USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments, and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis shows that the cumulative 100 year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas.     

Experimental determination of REE partition coefficients between zircon,garnet and melt: a key to understanding high‐T crustal processes

The partitioning of rare earth elements (REE) between zircon, garnet and silicate melt was determined using synthetic compositions designed to represent partial melts formed in the lower crust during anatexis. The experiments, performed using internally heated gas pressure vessels at 7 kbar and 900–1000 °C, represent equilibrium partitioning of the middle to heavy REE between zircon and garnet during high‐grade metamorphism in the mid to lower crust. The D_REE (zircon/garnet) values show a clear partitioning signature close to unity from Gd to Lu. Because the light REE have low concentrations in both minerals, values are calculated from strain modelling of the middle to heavy REE experimental data; these results show that zircon is favoured over garnet by up to two orders of magnitude. The resulting general concave‐up shape to the partitioning pattern across the REE reflects the preferential incorporation of middle REE into garnet, with D_Gd (zircon/garnet) ranging from 0.7 to 1.1, D_Ho (zircon/garnet) from 0.4 to 0.7 and D_Lu (zircon/garnet) from 0.6 to 1.3. There is no significant temperature dependence in the zircon–garnet REE partitioning at 7 kbar and 900–1000 °C, suggesting that these values can be applied to the interpretation of zircon–garnet equilibrium and timing relationships in the ultrahigh‐T metamorphism of low‐Ca pelitic and aluminous granulites.     

Syn‐metamorphic folding in the Tauern Window,Austria dated by Th–Pb ages from individual allanite porphyroblasts

High‐precision ²³²Th–²⁰⁸Pb dates have been obtained from allanite porphyroblasts that show unambiguous microstructural relationships to fabrics in a major syn‐metamorphic fold in the SE Tauern Window, Austria. Three porphyroblasts were analysed from a single garnet mica schist from the Peripheral Schieferhülle in the core of the Ankogel Synform, one of a series of folds which developed shortly before the thermal peak of Alpine epidote–amphibolite facies metamorphism: allanite grain 1 provided two analyses with a combined age of 27.7 ± 0.7 Ma; grain 2, which was slightly bent and fractured during crenulation, provided two analyses with a combined age of 27.7 ± 0.4 Ma; a single analysis from grain 3, which overgrew an already crenulated fabric, gave an age of 28.0 ± 1.4 Ma. The five ²³²Th–²⁰⁸Pb ages agree within error and define an isochron with an age of 27.71 ± 0.36 Ma (95% confidence level; MSWD = 0.46). The results imply that the crenulation event was in progress in a short interval (<1 Ma) c. 28 Ma, and that the Ankogel Synform was forming at this time. The thermal peak of regional metamorphism in the SE Tauern Window was probably attained shortly after 28 Ma, only c. 5 Ma after eclogite facies metamorphism in the central Tauern Window. Metasediment may contain allanite porphyroblasts with clear‐cut microstructural relationships to fabric development and metamorphic crystallization; for such rocks, ²³²Th–²⁰⁸Pb dating on microsamples offers a powerful geochronological tool.     

Fiscal geographies: “Placing” taxation in urban geography

As the state’s primary means of both redistributing wealth and incentivizing private investment, tax plays an outsized role in a range of critical urban processes, including (re)development, gentrification, financialization, and local and regional governance. We argue, through reference to existing literature in urban and economic geography, as well as our own research on taxation and the state, that urban scholarship could benefit by close and careful engagement with taxation and the tax system. We term this new vein of research “fiscal geographies” and see it as offering potential for more nuanced study of urban political economy, politics, and processes.     

Oxygen isotope fractionation between rutile and water

Synthetic rutile-water fractionations (1000 ln α) at 775, 675, and 575° C were found to be ?2.8, ?3.5, and ?4.8, respectively. Partial exchange experiments with natural rutile at 575° C and with synthetic rutile at 475° C failed to yield reliable fractionations. Isotopic fractionation within the range 575–775° C may be expressed as follows: 1 $$1000\ln \alpha ({\rm T}i{\rm O}_{2 } - H_2 O) = - 4.1 \frac{{10^6 }}{{T_{k^2 } }} + 0.96$$ . Combined with previously determined quartz-water fractionations, the above data permit calibration of the quartz-rutile geothermometer: 1 $$1000\ln \alpha ({\text{S}}i{\rm O}_{2 } - Ti{\rm O}_{2 } ) = 6.6 \frac{{10^6 }}{{T_{k^2 } }} - 2.9$$ . When applied to B-type eclogites from Europe, as an example, the latter equation yields a mean equilibration temperature of 565° C.