Influence of earthquakes on the stability of slopes

Earthquakes are a major trigger for instability of natural and man-made slopes. Often the instability of slopes due to an earthquake causes more destruction and kills more people than the actual earthquake itself. A comparison is made between different methodologies to analyze the potential stability of slopes during earthquakes. Theoretically, it seems simple to calculate the stability of a slope during an earthquake. In reality, however, the stability is influenced by so many parameters that are either not known or which influence is so poorly known that a decent estimation of stability cannot be made. Offshore the situation is worse because proper data required for stability calculations are even less available than onshore. On- and offshore, erosion and weathering create continuously slopes that may become unstable during a future earthquake, offshore also sedimentation creates continuously new slopes. Another fundamental problem in stability analysis is the complicated and largely unknown behavior of seismic waves in three-dimensions in natural materials. The lack of accurate data and the unknown behavior of seismic waves in three-dimensions make estimations of slope stability during an earthquake unreliable.     

An integrated model to assess critical rainfall thresholds for run-out distances of debris flows

A dramatic increase in debris flows occurred in the years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in SW China due to the deposition of loose co-seismic landslide material. This paper proposes a preliminary integrated model, which describes the relationship between rain input and debris flow run-out in order to establish critical rain thresholds for mobilizing enough debris volume to reach the basin outlet. The model integrates in a simple way rainfall, surface runoff, and concentrated erosion of the loose material deposited in channels, propagation, and deposition of flow material. The model could be calibrated on total volumes of debris flow materials deposited at the outlet of the Shuida catchment during two successive rain events which occurred in August 2011. The calibrated model was used to construct critical rainfall intensity-duration graphs defining thresholds for a run-out distance until the outlet of the catchment. Model simulations show that threshold values increase after successive rain events due to a decrease in erodible material. The constructed rainfall intensity-duration threshold graphs for the Shuida catchment based on the current situation appeared to have basically the same exponential value as a threshold graph for debris flow occurrences, constructed for the Wenjia catchment on the basis of 5 observed triggering rain events. This may indicate that the triggering mechanism by intensive run-off erosion in channels in this catchment is the same. The model did not account for a supply of extra loose material by landslips transforming into debris flow or reaching the channels for transportation by run-off. In August 2012, two severe rain events were measured in the Shuida catchment, which did not produce debris flows. This could be confirmed by the threshold diagram constructed by the model.     

The Influence of Floodplain Compartmentalization on Flood Risk within the Rhine–Meuse Delta

The present compartmentalization layout within the river polders in the Dutch Rhine–Meuse delta is the result of abandonment and partial removal of secondary dikes and the construction of modern infrastructure embankments. These structures will guide the flow of water in case the polder would inundate. Through the application of a 2-D flood propagation model in the polder Land van Maas en Waal this study explores whether restoration or removal of old dike remnants would contribute to a reduction of the risk and damage during an inundation. A systematic set of 28 flood scenarios was simulated and for each scenario an additional damage and risk assessment was carried out. It is concluded that a simple removal or total restoration will not reduce flood damage, but that this must be achieved by a strategic compartment plan. With such a plan old dike remnants and present embankments can be used to keep water away from vulnerable and valuable areas for as long as possible and to guide the floodwater to areas that are considered less vulnerable.     

Assessment of an ASTER-generated DEM for 2D hydrodynamic flood modeling

Flood modeling often provides inputs to flood hazard management. In the present work we studied the flooding characteristics in the data scarce region of the Lake Tana basin at the source of the Blue Nile River. The study required to integrate remote sensing, GIS with a two-dimensional (2D) module of the SOBEK flood model. The resolution of the topographic data in many areas, such as the Lake Tana region, is commonly too poor to support detailed 2D hydrodynamic modeling. To overcome such limitations, we used a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) which was generated from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) image. A GIS procedure is developed to reconstruct the river terrain and channel bathymetry. The results revealed that a representation of the river terrain largely affects the simulated flood characteristics. Simulations indicate that effects of Lake Tana water levels propagate up to 13 km along the Ribb River. We conclude that a 15 m resolution ASTER DEM can serve as an input to detailed 2D hydrodynamic modeling in data scarce regions. However, for this purpose it is necessary to accurately reconstruct the river terrain geometry and flood plain topography based on ground observations by means of a river terrain model.