Correction to: Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution

Climate Dynamics - The original article can be found online.     

The bubbles or the boiling pot? An ecosystemic approach to culture,environment and quality of life

For the diagnosis and prognosis of the problems of quality of life, a multidisciplinary ecosystemic approach encompasses four dimensions of being-in-the-world, as donors and recipients: intimate, interactive, social and biophysical. Social, cultural and environmental vulnerabilities are understood and dealt with, in different circumstances of space and time, as the conjugated effect of all dimensions of being-in-the-world, as they induce the events (deficits and assets), cope with consequences (desired or undesired) and contribute for change. Instead of fragmented and reduced representations of reality, diagnosis and prognosis of cultural, educational, environmental and health problems considers the connections (assets) and ruptures (deficits) between the different dimensions, providing a planning model to develop and evaluate research, teaching programmes, public policies and field projects. The methodology is participatory, experiential and reflexive; heuristic-hermeneutic processes unveil cultural and epistemic paradigms that orient subject-object relationships; giving people the opportunity to reflect on their own realities, engage in new experiences and find new ways to live better in a better world. The proposal is a creative model for thought and practice, providing many opportunities for discussion, debate and development of holistic projects integrating different scientific domains (social sciences, psychology, education, philosophy, etc.). Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Identification of the Bloody Creek structure,a possible impact crater in southwestern Nova Scotia,Canada

Abstract— An approximately 0.4 km diameter elliptical structure formed in Devonian granite in southwestern Nova Scotia, herein named the Bloody Creek structure (BCS), is identified as a possible impact crater. Evidence for an impact origin is based on integrated geomorphic, geophysical, and petrographic data. A near‐continuous geomorphic rim and a 10 m deep crater that is infilled with lacustrine sediments and peat define the BCS. Ground penetrating radar shows that the crater has a depressed inner floor that is sharply ringed by a 1 m high buried scarp. Heterogeneous material under the floor, interpreted as deposits from collapse of the transient cavity walls, is overlain by stratified and faulted lacustrine and wetland sediments. Alteration features found only in rim rocks include common grain comminution, polymict lithic microbreccias, kink‐banded feldspar and biotite, single and multiple sets of closely spaced planar microstructures (PMs) in quartz and feldspar, and quartz mosaicism, rare reduced mineral birefringence, and chlorite showing plastic deformation and flow microtextures. Based on their form and crystallographic orientations, the quartz PMs consist of planar deformation features that document shock‐metamorphic pressures ≤25 GPa. The age of the BCS is not determined. The low depth to diameter ratio of the crater, coupled with anomalously high shock‐metamorphic pressures recorded at its exposed rim, may be a result of significant post‐impact erosion. Alternatively, impact onto glacier ice during the waning stages of Wisconsinian deglaciation (about 12 ka BP) may have resulted in dissipation of much impact energy into the ice, resulting in the present morphology of the BCS.     

Hydrometeorological aspects of flood hazards in Canada

Abstract

Floods are major natural disasters in Canada and worldwide. Although technology has reduced the flood hazard in many areas, the world death toll from floods in recent decades still has averaged 4680 per year. During the summer of 1993, flooding in the U.S.A. caused an estimated $12 billion damage. These statistics confirm that floods are a major natural disaster.

This paper reviews the hydrometeorological aspects of the hazard associated with rainstorm, urban, ice‐jam, and snowmelt floods. The hazard element is highest for floods with rapid onsets such as rainstorm, urban, and ice‐jam floods. Although snowmelt floods are common throughout Canada, their slower onset times reduce their risk potential.

To reduce the risk of the flood hazard, society must have access to statistical information for adequate planning and design, and forecasts for issuing warnings and implementing evacuation strategies. Flood design statistics and forecast models are discussed relative to each major flood type. The paper also describes historical flood frequency trends and discusses the implications of climatic warming for future floods. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some knowledge gaps and research needs.     

The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series

This study investigated using Monte Carlo simulation the interaction between a linear trend and a lag‐one autoregressive (AR(1)) process when both exist in a time series. Simulation experiments demonstrated that the existence of serial correlation alters the variance of the estimate of the Mann–Kendall (MK) statistic; and the presence of a trend alters the estimate of the magnitude of serial correlation. Furthermore, it was shown that removal of a positive serial correlation component from time series by pre‐whitening resulted in a reduction in the magnitude of the existing trend; and the removal of a trend component from a time series as a first step prior to pre‐whitening eliminates the influence of the trend on the serial correlation and does not seriously affect the estimate of the true AR(1). These results indicate that the commonly used pre‐whitening procedure for eliminating the effect of serial correlation on the MK test leads to potentially inaccurate assessments of the significance of a trend; and certain procedures will be more appropriate for eliminating the impact of serial correlation on the MK test. In essence, it was advocated that a trend first be removed in a series prior to ascertaining the magnitude of serial correlation. This alternative approach and the previously existing approaches were employed to assess the significance of a trend in serially correlated annual mean and annual minimum streamflow data of some pristine river basins in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that, with the previously existing procedures, researchers and practitioners may have incorrectly identified the possibility of significant trends. Copyright © Environment Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic

Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for numerous countries surrounding the tropical-to-subtropical North Atlantic sub-basin including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their intense winds, which can exceed 300 km h⁻¹, can cause serious damage, particularly along coastlines where the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to storm surge and coastal flooding. This work presents future projections of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-related wave climate. A new configuration of the ARPEGE-Climat global atmospheric model on a stretched grid reaching ~ 14 km resolution to the north-east of the eastern Caribbean is able to reproduce the distribution of tropical cyclone winds, including Category 5 hurricanes. Historical (1984–2013, 5 members) and future (2051–2080, 5 members) simulations with the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) spectral wave model over the Atlantic basin during the hurricane season. An intermediate 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate mid-latitude swells into a higher 10-km resolution grid over the tropical cyclone main development region. Wave model performance is evaluated over the historical period with the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite altimetry data. Future projections exhibit a modest but widespread reduction in seasonal mean wave heights in response to weakening subtropical anticyclone, yet marked increases in tropical cyclone-related wind sea and extreme wave heights within a large region extending from the African coasts to the North American continent.