An objective classification system of air mass types for Szeged, Hungary, with special interest in air pollution levels

Summary This paper determines the characteristic air mass types over the Carpathian Basin for the winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July and August) months dependant on levels of the main air pollutants. Based on the ECMWF data set, daily sea-level pressure fields analysed at 00 UTC were prepared for each air mass type (cluster) in order to relate sea-level pressure patterns with the level of air pollutants in Szeged. The data comprise daily values of twelve meteorological and eight pollutant parameters for the period 1997–2001. Objective definition of the characteristic air mass types is achieved by using the methods of Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis. According to the results, during the winter months five air mass types (clusters) were detected based on higher concentrations of primary pollutants that occur with high irradiance and low wind speed. This is the case when an anticyclone is found over the Carpathian Basin and over the region south of Hungary, influencing the weather of the country. Low levels of pollutants occur when zonal currents exert influence over Hungary. During the summer months anticyclones and anticyclone ridge situations are found over the Carpathian Basin. (During the prevalence of anticyclone ridge situations, the Carpathian Basin is found at the edge of a high pressure centre.) As a result of high irradiance and very low NO levels, secondary pollutants are highly enriched.     

Complex Site Effects in Thessaloniki (Greece): I. Soil Structure and Comparison of Observations with 1D Analysis

This paper presents a 2D model of the geological structure of Thessaloniki city and results of empirical and theoretical approaches for the evaluation of site response due to complex site effects. The construction of the 2D model is based on the available geophysical and geotechnical data in terms of the most important parameters needed to model site response. The well-known subsoil structure, despite the existence of some local uncertainties, gave the possibility to correlate the geometry and the dynamic properties of the 2D model with the results of site response determined from the analysis of one event in frequency and time domains and 1D numerical modelling. The study of site response shows the effect of the lateral variations on ground motion and suggests that the contribution of locally generated surface waves to the resonant peak may be important. In this case history, the limitations of the 1D approximation to simulate ground motion under complex soil conditions in both frequency and time domains are also shown. This paper lays the ground for a companion article dealing with 2D site effects.     

Site effects at Euroseistest—I. Determination of the valley structure and confrontation of observations with 1D analysis

This paper describes the process of construction of the 2D model of Volvi's geological structure and results of empirical and theoretical approaches to the evaluation of site response at Euroseistest. The construction of the 2D model is based on a re-interpretation of the available geophysical and geotechnical data in an effort to improve the definition of the subsoil structure at Euroseistest in terms of the most important parameters needed to model site response. The results of this re-interpretation are compared with a previous published 2D model of the same alluvial valley. Different analysis of the measurements and different criteria in the synthesis of data have led to a different model, even if both studies had access to the same field measurements. This underscores the fact that a model results of an interpretation and is not uniquely determined by the data, no matter how detailed they are. The well known subsoil structure opened the possibility to correlate the geometry and the dynamic properties of the 2D model with the results of site response determined from a detailed analysis of two events in frequency and time domains and 1D numerical modeling. The study of site response shows the important effect of the lateral variations on the ground motion and suggests that the contribution of locally generated surface waves to the resonant peak may be important. In the case of Volvi's graben, the limitations of the 1D approximation to simulate ground motion under complex soil conditions in both frequency and time domains are also shown. This paper lays the ground for a companion article dealing with 2D site effects in this basin.     

Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the...     

Complex Site Effects in Thessaloniki (Greece): II. 2D SH Modelling and Engineering Insights

This paper presents results of numerical modelling of site response for Thessaloniki, obtained with two different 2D methods; a finite difference and a finite element method. Ground motion across a 2D model of the subsoil of the city has been simulated for vertically incident SH waves. The predominance of locally generated surface waves is very clear in the synthetic seismograms of a weak event and of stronger ones. These results are then compared with the observations in time domain and frequency domain. The role of the soil formations with high attenuation in the lateral propagation and the effect of the differential motion close to the lateral variations are also pinpointed. The stronger events were finally used to compute strong ground motion in order to reveal and to discuss practical engineering aspects such as peak ground acceleration value, the most familiar indicator in seismic norms, the soil to rock spectral coefficients for the period bandwidth of interest, and the aggravation factor in terms of 2D to 1D response spectra as a useful ruler to account for complex site effects.     

Site effects at Euroseistest—II. Results from 2D numerical modeling and comparison with observations

This paper presents results of numerical modeling of site response for Euroseistest. Ground motion across a very detailed model of the subsoil of this valley has been simulated for vertically incident SH waves. The predominance of locally generated surface waves is very clear in the synthetic seismograms. These results are then compared with published studies of observed site effects at this basin and with a detailed analysis of two events in the time domain. It is discussed in which sense it is possible to obtain a good fit between observations and 1D models, even though the real behavior involves locally generated Love waves. For this reason, it can be misleading to rely on an incomplete observation such as empirical transfer functions. Finally, it is stressed that in order to predict ground motion in alluvial valleys the information contained in the phase cannot be neglected.     

Site Effects and Design Provisions: The Case of Euroseistest

—?Modern seismic codes usually include provisions for site effects by considering different coefficients chosen on the basis of soil properties at the surface and an estimate of the depth of bedrock. However, complex local geology may generate site amplification on soft soils significantly larger than what would be expected if we assume that the subsoil consists of plane soil layers overlaying a homogeneous half-space. This paper takes advantage of the large number of previous studies of site effects done at Euroseistest (northern Greece). Those studies have supplied a very detailed knowledge of the geometry and properties of the materials filling this shallow valley. In this paper we discuss the differences between site effects evaluated at the surface using simple 1-D computations and those evaluated using a very detailed 2-D model of the subsoil structure. The 2-D model produces an additional amplification in response spectra that cannot be accounted for without reference to the lateral heterogeneity of the valley structure. Our numerical results are extensively compared with observations, which show that the additional amplification computed from the 2-D model is real and affects by a significant factor response spectra, and thus suggests that some kind of aggravation factor due to the complexity of local geology is worthy of consideration in microzonation studies and seismic codes.     

Autoregressive modelling of daily ragweed pollen concentrations for Szeged in Hungary

Studying airborne pollen concentrations is an essential part of aerobiology owing to its important applications in allergology. A time-varying first order autoregressive (AR(1)) model able to describe the annual cycle of both the expectation and variance as well as the highly skewed probability distribution of daily ragweed pollen concentrations conditioned on previous-day pollen concentration values is developed. Confidence bands for forecasts obtained with these conditional lognormal distributions are analysed. The probability of exceeding specific pollen concentration thresholds is also addressed with the model based on a refinement of the AutoRegressive To Anything process. In order to have more accurate forecasts for the next-day pollen concentration level, eight meteorological variables influencing pollen concentrations are considered. Based on a procedure similar to the stepwise regression method, only one predictor has been retained, namely the daily mean temperature. Using root mean square error, the percentage variance of the ragweed pollen concentration level accounted for by this extended AR(1) model is 53.5%, while the mean absolute error produced by the model is 32.2 pollen grains?m^?3. The probability of exceeding pollen concentration thresholds obtained from the conditional lognormal distributions under the extended AR(1) model fits well the observed exceedance events.