Variability of mini cold pool off the southern tip of India as revealed from a thermodynamic upper ocean model

A 2.5-layer thermodynamic ocean model has been used to understand the processes associated with the formation of cold pool off southern tip of India. The mean model simulations from the 13 year integration for the period 1992–2004 renders a cold region off southern tip of India during the months of June to September which is recognized as mini cold pool (MCP). The inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of the MCP for the 5 years from 2000 to 2004 is explored in detail in the present paper. The analysis of model SST shows intense and widespread MCP during the long breaks occurred in the months of July and August of the bad monsoon years 2002 and 2004. The intense cooling is in response to the wind induced upwelling and the resultant entrainment of cold water from the bottom layer. The presence of cyclonic gyre in the model currents also supports the intense MCP which might modulate the monsoon during break phase.     

A Model Study on Understanding the Influence of Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool on Monsoon Onset Vortex Formation

The Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (MWP) is a zone of anomalously high Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Arabian Sea over which the monsoon onset vortex (OV) is believed to form. In the present study it is shown that this MWP is a key parameter in the development of the onset vortex. Atmospheric model experiments are carried out with and without MWP to understand the mechanisms for the formation of the OV. The model failed to simulate the OV with the cold SST advocating the importance of the MWP for the formation of the OV. The MWP is found to favor the formation of the onset vortex in the east central Arabian Sea by increasing the horizontal shear and decreasing the vertical wind shear.     

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical...     

North Indian Ocean warming and sea level rise in an OGCM

The variability in the long-term temperature and sea level over the north Indian Ocean during the period 1958–2000 has been investigated using an Ocean General Circulation Model, Modular Ocean Model version 4. The model simulated fields are compared with the sea level observations from tide-gauges, Topex/Poseidon (T/P) satellite, in situ temperature profile observations from WHOI moored buoy and sea surface temperature (SST) observations from DS1, DS3 and DS4 moored buoys. It is seen that the long (6–8 years) warming episodes in the SST over the north Indian Ocean are followed by short episodes (2–3 years) of cooling. The model temperature and sea level anomaly over the north Indian Ocean show an increasing trend in the study period. The model thermocline heat content per unit area shows a linear increasing trend (from 1958–2000) at the rate of 0.0018 × 10¹¹ J/m² per year for north Indian Ocean. North Indian Ocean sea level anomaly (thermosteric component) also shows a linear increasing trend of 0.31 mm/year during 1958–2000.     

A model study on oceanic processes during the Indian Ocean Dipole termination

In this study, the processes affecting the temperature variability over the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) during 1958–2000, accomplishing the positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are analyzed. The upper ocean heat budget analysis of the STIO has been carried out to understand the oceanic process during the termination of the recent strongest IOD events. The three recent strongest positive IOD events (1961, 1994 and 1997) and a strong negative IOD event (1996) are considered for detailed analysis. The heat budget analysis revealed that the positive net-surface heat flux and vertical advection played dominant roles in the termination of 1997 IOD event, whereas horizontal and vertical advections are responsible for the termination of IOD events during 1961 and 1994. The anomalous negative surface heat flux and horizontal advection caused the dipole termination during the negative dipole year 1996. The findings are well supported by the analysis of anomaly correlation between model upper ocean heat content tendency and heat budget components. Significant intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs) in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are seen during the initial phase of termination in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during 1961 and 1994 IOD events. The influence of ISOs in SST is not so evident during the IOD termination in 1997. It is found that the termination processes have started more than a month prior to the actual IOD termination.     

Indian summer monsoon rainfall predictability and variability associated with Northwest Pacific circulation in a suit of coupled model hindcasts

The Northwest Pacific (NWP) circulation (subtropical high) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system. During summer (June–August), anomalous lower tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation appears over NWP in some years, which is an indicative of stronger (weaker) than normal subtropical high. The anomalous NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years are associated with negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over most of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) region. This indicates concurrent relationship between NWP circulation and convection over the ISMR region. Dry wind advection from subtropical land regions and moisture divergence over the southern peninsular India during the NWP cyclonic circulation years are mainly responsible for the negative rainfall anomalies over the ISMR region. In contrast, during anticyclonic years, warm north Indian Ocean and moisture divergence over the head Bay of Bengal-Gangetic Plain region support moisture instability and convergence in the southern flank of ridge region, which favors positive rainfall over most of the ISMR region. The interaction between NWP circulation (anticyclonic or cyclonic) and ISMR and their predictability during these anomalous years are examined in the present study. Seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center and their multimodel ensemble mean skills in predicting the seasonal rainfall and circulation anomalies over the ISMR region and NWP for the period 1982–2004 are assessed. Analysis reveals that three (two) out of seven models are unable to predict negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent during the NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years at 1-month lead (model is initialized on 1 May). The limited westward extension of the NWP circulation and misrepresentation of SST anomalies over the north Indian Ocean are found to be the main reasons for the poor skill (of some models) in rainfall prediction over the Indian subcontinent. This study demonstrates the importance of the NWP circulation variability in predicting summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Considering the predictability of the NWP circulation, the current study provides an insight into the predictability of ISMR. Long lead prediction of the ISMR associated with anomalous NWP circulation is also discussed.     

Spring asymmetric mode in the tropical Indian Ocean: role of El Niño and IOD

The spring asymmetric mode over the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is characterized by contrasting patterns of rainfall and surface wind anomalies north and south of Equator. The asymmetric pattern in rainfall has evolved as a leading mode of variability in the TIO and is strongly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The evolution of the asymmetric pattern in rainfall and surface wind during pure El Niño/IOD and co-occurrence years are examined in the twentieth century reanalysis for the period of 1871–2008 and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The study revealed that spring asymmetric mode is well developed when El Niño co-occurred with IOD (positive) and is driven by the associated meridional gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP). The pure El Niño composites are characterized by homogeneous (spatially) SST anomalies (positive) and weaker SLP gradients and convection, leading to weak asymmetric mode. The asymmetric mode is absent in the pure IOD (positive) composites due to the persistence of east west SST gradient for a longer duration than the co-occurrence years. The meridional gradient in SST anomalies over the TIO associated with the ENSO-IOD forcing is therefore crucial in developing/strengthening the spring asymmetric mode. The northwest Pacific anticyclonic circulation further strengthen the asymmetric mode in surface winds by inducing northeasterlies in the north Indian Ocean during pure El Niño and co-occurrence years. The simulations based on AGCM, forced by observed SSTs during the period of 1871–2000 supported the findings. The analysis of available station and ship track data further strengthens our results.     

Study the Mechanism of Surface Chlorophyll–a Variability in the Southern Tropical Indian Ocean Using an OGCM

Eleven years (1997–2007) of SeaWiFS observations and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments are used to understand chlorophyll–a variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean. The strong offshore Ekman transport forced by anomalous southeasterly winds are responsible for inducing higher chlorophyll-a in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. In the case of the southwest tropical Indian Ocean, Rossby waves and local upwelling are responsible for lifting the phytoplankton from deep chlorophyll maxima to the surface. Both intraseasonal dynamical response and interannual forcing are responsible for the phytoplankton blooming in the western basin, whereas the interannual forcing is mainly responsible in the east.     

Interannual variability in the Biannual Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean and its relation to Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino forcing

The interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean is studied using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) and Hadley Centre Ice Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. Biannual Rossby waves (BRW) were observed along the 1.5° S and 10.5° S latitudes during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. The SODA SSHA and its BRW components were comparable with those of Topex/Poseidon. The phase speed of BRW along 1.5° S is −28 cm/s, which is comparable with the theoretical speed of first mode baroclinic (equatorially trapped) Rossby waves. This is the first study to show that no such propagation is seen along 1.5° S during El Nino years in the absence of IOD. Thus the westward propagating downwelling BRW in the equatorial Indian Ocean is hypothesized as a potential predictor for IOD. These waves transport heat from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean to west, long before the dipole formation. Along 10.5° S, the BRW formation mechanisms during the El Nino and IOD years were found to be different. The eastern boundary variations along 10.5° S, being localized, do not influence the ocean interior considerably. Major portion of the interannual variability of the thermocline, is caused by the Ekman pumping integrated along the characteristic lines of Rossby waves. The study provides evidence of internal dynamics in the IOD formation. The positive trend in the downwelling BRW (both in SODA and Topex/Poseidon) is of great concern, as it contributes to the Indian Ocean warming.