A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Isoseismals of the strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976

Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed.     

A new design of the LAPS land surface scheme for use over and through heterogeneous and non-heterogeneous surfaces: Numerical simulations and tests

Numerical simulations and tests with the recently redesigned land–air parameterization scheme (LAPS) are presented. In all experiments, supported either by one-point micrometeorological, 1D or 3D simulations, the attention has been directed to: (1) comparison of simulation outputs, expressing the energy transfer over and through heterogeneous and non-heterogeneous surfaces, versus observations and (2) analysis of uncertainties occurring in the solution of the energy balance equation at the land–air interface. To check the proposed method for aggregation of albedo, “propagating hole” sensitivity tests with LAPS over a sandstone rock grid cell have been performed with the forcing meteorological data for July 17, 1999 in Baxter site, Philadelphia (USA). Micrometeorological and biophysical measurements from the surface experiments conducted over crops and apple orchard in Serbia, Poland, Austria and France were used to test the operation of LAPS in calculating surface fluxes and canopy environment temperatures within and above plant covers of different densities. In addition, sensitivity tests with single canopy covers over the Central Europe region and comparison against the observations taken from SYNOP data using 3D simulations were made. Validation of LAPS performances over a solid surface has been done by comparison of 2 m air temperature observations against 5-day simulations over the Sahara Desert rocky ground using 3D model. To examine how realistically the LAPS simulates surface processes over a heterogeneous surface, we compared the air temperature measured at 2 m and that predicted by the 1D model with the LAPS as the surface scheme. Finally, the scheme behaviour over urban surface was tested by runs over different parts of a hypothetical urban area. The corresponding 1D simulations were carried out with an imposed meteorological dataset collected during HAPEX-MOBILHY experiment at Caumont (France). The quantities predicted by the LAPS compare well with the observations and the various subcomponents of the scheme appear to operate realistically.     

The validation of various schemes for parameterizing evaporation from bare soil for use in meteorological models: A numerical study using in situ data

Parameterization of evaporation from a non-plant-covered surface is very important in the hierarchy strategy of modelling land surface processes. One of the representations frequently used in its computation is the resistance formulation. The performance of the evaporation schemes using the , , and their combination resistance approaches to parameterize evaporation from bare soil surfaces is discussed. For that purpose, the nine schemes, based on a different dependence of and on volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value, are used.The tests of performances of the considered schemes are based on time integrations by the land surface module (BARESOIL) using observed data. The 23 data sets at a bare surface experimental site in Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia on chernozem soil, were used for the resistance algorithm evaluation. The quality of the schemes was compared with the observed values of the latent heat flux using several statistical parameters.     

Spatio-temporal regression kriging model of mean daily temperature for Croatia

High resolution gridded mean daily temperature datasets are valuable for research and applications in agronomy, meteorology, hydrology, ecology, and many other disciplines depending on weather or climate. The gridded datasets and the models used for their estimation are being constantly improved as there is always a need for more accurate datasets as well as for datasets with a higher spatial and temporal resolution. We developed a spatio-temporal regression kriging model for Croatia at 1 km spatial resolution by adapting the spatio-temporal regression kriging model developed for global land areas. A geometrical temperature trend, digital elevation model, and topographic wetness index were used as covariates together with measurements from the Croatian national meteorological network for the year 2008. This model performed better than the global model and previously developed models for Croatia, based on MODIS land surface temperature images. The R2 was 97.8% and RMSE was 1.2 °C for leave-one-out and 5-fold cross-validation. The proposed national model still has a high level of uncertainty at higher altitudes leaving it suitable for agricultural areas that are dominant in lower and medium altitudes.     

A review of the historical development of the Republic of Croatia

The Croats were among the first peoples of Europe who established a state, and from the beginning of the tenth century they had their own kingdom, the first among the Slav peoples. By their language they belong to the Indo-European Slavic, or more precisely the South Slavic group of peoples, and by their cultural and religious orientation they belong to the Western European sphere of civilization. They settled their present homeland at the beginning of the seventh century. Their formation as a distinct ethnicity began in the early Middle Ages, and this on territory which was for centuries the meeting place of Greek and Roman culture, the Frankish and Byzantine Empires, and the Holy Roman (German) and Ottoman Empires. Here the world's three greatest religions also met: Catholicism, Orthodoxy and Islam. The Croats are Catholics and have always gravitated to the West. As one of the six republics of the former Yugoslavia, Croatia was on the border between the Western democratic countries and the Eastern communist world, between the countries gathered in NATO and those in the Warsaw Pact. Since becoming an independent and democratic state in 1991, the Republic of Croatia has been on the eastern border of Central Europe.     

An advection scheme based on the combination of particle mesh method and pure Lagrangian approach

Possibility of using pure Lagrangian approach in modeling transport phenomena is described in this paper. The application of pure Lagrangian approach in real atmospheric field induces highly irregular spatial distribution of grid points, after only a few time steps. In order to avoid problems caused by that irregularity, a quasi interpolation procedure is proposed. Proposed interpolation procedure is similar to the radial basis functions interpolation and does not impose any demands about spatial distribution of the grid points or about continuity and differentiability of the field that needs to be interpolated. Besides that, proposed procedure is explicitly mass conserving. Combination of particle mesh method and pure Lagrangian approach creates efficient transport scheme that does not produce any new local maxima and minima in advected field. In proposed advection scheme motion of points are performed in Lagrangian manner while spatial derivatives are evaluated on the basis of values interpolated onto regular grid. Applicability of proposed advection scheme in an unambiguous way is proved by performing “standard” numerical tests with (i) the slotted cylinder under solid body rotation, (ii) the test with Doswell’s idealized cyclogenesis as well as (iii) integration of shallow water equations.     

On the undrained strain-induced anisotropy of loose sand

An experimental study was carried out to investigate the effects of previous deviatoric strain histories on the undrained behaviour of loose and saturated Toyoura sand and compared with known results of Hostun RF sand. From an initial isotropic stress state, recent deviatoric strain histories in the compression side of the triaxial plane were generated by a standard drained presheared cycle up to a specified mobilized stress ratio. Mainly, the fully liquefied, contractive, unstable and softening behaviour of loose sand was progressively transformed into the non-liquefied, dilative, fully stable and hardening behaviour of dense-like sand, while remaining within a narrow range of loose density. The paper validates and extends the current understanding of strain-induced anisotropy of loose sand. New experimental data support the directional dependency of the instability cone on the stress increment direction, suggest the bifurcation characteristics of loose sand and evidence the important role of past deviatoric strain histories.     

The development and structure of the Croatian economy

The first part of the article deals with the general and historical conditions of the development of the Croatian economy, with an emphasis on industry as the dominant branch. The relatively favorable developmental possibilities of Croatia are stressed, with the combination of the agrarian Pannonian region, the forested stock-farming highland regions and the tourism-transit front of the Adriatic. The basic data on periods of historical development are mentioned, with an explanation of the five developmental stages.The second half of the article deals with a thorough analysis of the basic processes of the restructuring of the Croatian economy. Emphasis is placed on the decreased significance of agrarian and agricultural production (in 1961 Croatia had an agricultural population of 43.7%, while in 1991 it was only 9.6%), and the domination of industry, which in 1987 accounted for 35.1 percent of the employed population and 50.3 percent of the gross national product. The processes of restructuring and transition from a socialist to a market economy, as well as the wartime crisis, caused a fall in the value of industrial products to 43 percent in the years from 1990 to 1994. The branch and spatial restructuring of the economy and industry, privatization processes and the problem of increased unemployment are also analyzed.