Aligning climate action with the self-interest and short-term dominated priorities of decision-makers

The global and long-term nature of climate change conflicts with the self-interest and short-term dominated priorities of decision-makers. Climate change mitigation makes sense at the global level, but not at the level of the individual decision-maker. This conflict has been and remains the main obstacle to effective global cooperation and mitigation. This paper proposes a framework that aligns climate action with short-term self-interest through results-based payments to governments. Its key components are: determining an emission benchmark for each country as well as a price for carbon saving; paying countries annually for reducing emissions below their respective benchmark; a new international fund to finance these annual payments by borrowing capital from private investors; and repaying borrowings in the long-term through payments made by countries to the fund based on a pre-determined allocation mechanism. This framework would offer important benefits over an approach focused on allocating climate action or a carbon budget among countries. These include the improved prospect of reaching an effective climate agreement and delivering fast and dramatic mitigation thanks to stronger political commitment, the transformation of short-term self-interest from an obstacle into a driver of climate action, and the additional financing created. The paper also proposes a pilot scheme focusing on hydrofluorocarbon emissions with a considerably lower financing requirement. This offers the possibility of an alternative financing mechanism, and thus a faster and more straightforward implementation path. Short-term financial incentives offered to governments could turn policy action from a burden into an opportunity from their perspective unlocking a huge potential for timely mitigation.

Key policy insights

• A new international framework that offers short-term, results-based payments to governments to promote mitigation action could lead to much more effective global mitigation and international cooperation.

• The financing of such an approach could be solved through a novel financing structure, backed by the long-term commitments of participating countries and thus aligning the timeframe of the financial costs of mitigation with its climate benefits.

• The effectiveness of results-based payments and the concept behind this new approach could be proven through a pilot scheme focusing on hydrofluorocarbon emissions.

     

Palaeoecological background of the Upper Palaeolithic site of Ságvár,Hungary: radiocarbon-dated malacological and sedimentological studies on the Late Pleistocene environment

In this paper, the authors present new palaeoecological and sedimentological results from the Upper Palaeolithic site of Ságvár, Hungary. Simple (abundance and dominance) and advanced (cluster analysis, principal component analysis, correspondence) statistical analyses of malacological results were carried out, determining eight malacological zones (MZs) and the key species of the fauna evolution in the sequence. Furthermore, an age–depth model was calculated via Bayesian modelling using new radiocarbon age data. The accumulation rate (AR) was calculated by deriving data from the age–depth model. The palaeoecological reconstruction indicated a cool/cold climate and chiefly steppe environment, with low loess ARs. Not only the vegetation cover but also the geographical setting of the sequence could have led to the low AR values. However, in the uppermost part of the sequence, during the GS 3 and GS 2.1c stadials, the reconstructed palaeoclimate indicated a warming period. Nevertheless, this contradiction is not unique in the Carpathian Basin. The settled Upper Palaeolithic hunters around 22 300 cal a bp lived in a progressively warming wooded steppe environment, hunting mainly for reindeer. Climate change might have forced them to migrate away, following the reindeer.     

New chronology and extended palaeoenvironmental data to the 1975 loess profile of Madaras brickyard,South Hungary

The 10 m thick Madaras loess–palaeosol profile is one of the Hungarian outcrops that yielded Upper Palaeolithic artefacts in 1966. To clarify the nature of the deposits and establish a reliable litho- and chronostratigraphy, a profile was opened and sampled at 25 cm intervals on the northern side of the brickyard in 1975. Analyses focused on grain size, carbonate content and the mollusc fauna. The chronology was based on the mollusc composition and a single date from the archaeological layer at the depth of ca 7 m below the surface. The 1975 profile was destroyed by mining but the reposited samples allowed an extended analysis of this important Marine Isotope Stage 2 record to which archaeological features were directly assigned. A new absolute chronology was built based on 11 ¹⁴C dates. Environmental magnetic, geochemical and palaeoecological investigations allowed a refined view of site evolution with reliable chronology for the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results corroborated those of previous investigations done on other coeval loess–palaeosol sequences of the Southern Carpathian Basin. This also allowed for a temporal correlation to another local record with the published high-resolution chronology of the same brickyard and enabled modelling of local-scale heterogeneity of the environment in the long run.