Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents.     

化工行业承灾体脆弱性指标体系的构建

化工行业承灾体主要考虑的是石油化工行业安全生产事故发生之后,事故产生的后果对不同承灾体的交互影响,通过化工行业常见的事故类型的分析,不同的事故类型对不同的承灾体可能产生单一或叠加影响,进行承灾体脆弱性的影响因素及涵盖范围,承灾体的脆弱性的具体影响指标的分析,通过专家打分法和层次分析法确定各个指标的权重,从而可以为承灾体脆弱性等级的确定奠定初步的理论基础。     

Seismic rehabilitation of semi-rigid steel framed buildings—A case study

This paper presents the seismic vulnerability and rehabilitation of a steel building with semi-rigid connections in Tehran. This 19-storey building with an asymmetric plan was constructed 30 years ago in three blocks. The qualitative vulnerability of the building was evaluated in the first step of the study, indicating its high seismic vulnerability. In the next step of the study, the quantitative vulnerability of the structure was investigated. The results show that the building was strong enough to resist gravity loads but the strength was not adequate for seismic loads. Finally, three seismic retrofitting methods consisting of concrete shear wall, steel shear wall, and steel bracing were proposed. The comparison of the three retrofitting alternatives in terms of architecture, implementation, and seismic performance showed the superiority of using the concrete shear walls over the two other alternatives.     

Vulnerability of bank filtration systems to climate change

Bank filtration (BF) is a well established and proven natural water treatment technology, where surface water is infiltrated to an aquifer through river or lake banks. Improvement of water quality is achieved by a series of chemical, biological and physical processes during subsurface passage. This paper aims at identifying climate sensitive factors affecting bank filtration performance and assesses their relevance based on hypothetical ‘drought’ and ‘flood’ climate scenarios. The climate sensitive factors influencing water quantity and quality also have influence on substance removal parameters such as redox conditions and travel time. Droughts are found to promote anaerobic conditions during bank filtration passage, while flood events can drastically shorten travel time and cause breakthrough of pathogens, metals, suspended solids, DOC and organic micropollutants. The study revealed that only BF systems comprising an oxic to anoxic redox sequence ensure maximum removal efficiency. The storage capacity of the banks and availability of two source waters renders BF for drinking water supply less vulnerable than surface water or groundwater abstraction alone. Overall, BF is vulnerable to climate change although anthropogenic impacts are at least as important.     

Assessing groundwater contamination risk using the DASTI/IDRISI GIS method: coastal system of western Mamora, Morocco

In this study, the DASTI method was used to evaluate vulnerability to groundwater pollution in the vicinity of Rabat, western Morocco. The model is based on the characterization of five intrinsic parameters: unsaturated zone thickness, saturated zone thickness and lithology, soil texture, topography and hydraulic gradient. A system of classes of the hydrogeological characteristics was applied to evaluate relative vulnerability to groundwater contamination and a susceptibility map was prepared based on land use and the vulnerability index map. The study showed the DASTI method (applied using IDRISI software) can serve as a tool to evaluate vulnerability to pollution and thus facilitate programs to protect groundwater resources. An erratum to this article can be found at     

韧性概念的重新审视

自《2005—2015兵库行动框架》被采纳以来,受灾社区的恢复力紧密取决于受灾社区的韧性,已经成为灾害风险控制项目的共同特征。现在人们越来越多地关注受灾社区在灾难发生后不依靠或少依靠外部援助而"反弹"或恢复的能力。与其仅仅关注受灾对象的需求和弱点,不如把着眼点放在应对灾难的韧性上,这突出了灾害风险控制领域需要转变。然而在灾害学界的研究和学术领域,对韧性这一概念达成共识依然是个挑战。本文梳理了不同情况下韧性的定义,脆弱性在韧性主题中所扮演的角色和意义,以及脆弱性和韧性之间的差异。文章最后探讨和总结了韧性思维在我们认识和应对灾害时所具有的指导意义。     

基于异常分布导向的智能Fuzzing方法

现有主流智能Fuzzing测试一般通过对程序内部结构的精确分析构造新测试样本,因而严重依赖于当前计算机的性能,往往忽略了已发现的程序异常信息对新测试样本构造的指导意义.为了克服上述缺陷,该文提出一种基于异常分布导向的智能Fuzzing方法.该方法针对二进制程序测试,建立了TGM(Testcase Generation Model)样本构造模型:首先根据计算能力收集测试样本集的相关信息;然后随机选择初始测试样本进行测试;最后,基于测试结果初始化模型参数,根据模型优先选择更有效的输入属性构造新样本并进行新一轮测试,通过重复进行该步骤,在迭代测试中不断更新模型参数,用于指导下一轮新测试样本构造.实验数据表明该方法可以辅助Fuzzing选择更有效的样本优先进行测试,设计的原型工具CombFuzz在异常检测能力和代码覆盖能力上都有良好表现,同时,在对大型应用程序进行测试时,与微软SDL实验室的MiniFuzz测试器相比,在限定时间内平均异常发现率提高近18倍,并在WPS 2013等软件中发现了7个MiniFuzz无法发现的未公开“可利用”脆弱点.     

网络系统资源数据的脆弱性漏洞防御控制仿真

当前漏洞防御控制方法存在着无法准确区分数据类型或脆弱性,需要较高的能量消耗和难以抵御某些未知攻击等不足。针对这些不足,提出网络系统资源数据脆弱性漏洞防御控制方法。根据属性划分网络系统运行数据和历史资源,属性划分后根据漏洞特征相关参数构建强关联规则,结合脆弱性漏洞辨识矩阵和数据关联规则构建漏洞检测模型;计算脆弱性漏洞利用难度,将防御任务优选问题描述为防御成本不高于给定值的条件下,获取造成最小损失的防御措施集的过程。把防御任务优选多目标优化问题转换成单目标优化问题,采用改进的蚁群算法求解优化问题,生成最优防御控制方案。实验结果表明,所提方法可以有效防御已知数据攻击和大部分未知数据攻击,且所需能耗较低。     

Contributing to the nuclear 3S's via a methodology aiming at enhancing the synergies between nuclear security and safety

Nuclear safety, nuclear security and nuclear safeguards regimes have not historically developed at the same pace and surely have not reached the same level of maturity. Nevertheless, these aspects are of special relevance in the current global nuclear energy context when considering the numerous countries that have and will have the legitimate ambition to start a nuclear energy production programme without any or scarce previous nuclear safety, security and safeguards cultures.The future development of nuclear energy exploitation will depend more and more on the convergence of decisions from governments, from the nuclear industry, from utilities, from private and institutional investors as well as from the level of acceptance by the public opinion.Following an in-depth state-of-the-art analysis and literature search, a methodological approach focussed on the safety and security connections is presented, as it seems a field where more commonalities and operational aspects could be possibly found and exploited.     

Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches

Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection.