Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

A constrained portfolio selection model at considering risk-adjusted measure by using hybrid meta-heuristic algorithms

Portfolio selection is a key issue in the business world and financial fields. This article presents a new decision making method of portfolio optimization (PO) issues in different risk measures by using new evolutionary computing method and cardinality constrains which is mentioned as hybrid meta-heuristic algorithms. Based on mean–variance (MV) Method by Markowitz we collected three risk levels; mean absolute deviation (MAD), semi variance (SV) and variance with skewness (VWS). The developed algorithms are Electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), genetic network programming (GNP) and simulated annealing (SA). Also a diversification mechanism strategy is implemented and hybridized with the developed algorithms to increase the diversity and overcome local optimality. The sustainability of this proposed model is verified by 50 factories on the Iranian stock exchange. Finally, experimental results of proposed algorithms with cardinality constraint are compared with each other by four effective metrics in which the algorithms performance for achieving the optimal solution discussed. In addition, we have done the analysis of variance technique to confirm the validity and accurately analyze of the results which the success of this method was proved.     

Levelized cost of energy definition – An economic paradox

Using mean value theorem for integrals we show that the well-known LCOE definition is incorrect.     

The control of paracetamol particle size and surface morphology through crystallisation in a spray dryer

The parameters governing the crystallisation of paracetamol using various conventional techniques has been extensively studied, however the factors influencing the drug crystallisation using spray drying is not as well understood. The aim of this work was to investigate the crystallisation of an active pharmaceutical ingredient through evaporative crystallisation using a spray dryer to study the physicochemical properties of the drug and to use semi-empirical equations to gain insight into the morphology and particle size of the dried powder. Paracetamol solutions were spray dried at various inlet temperatures ranging from 60 °C to 120 °C and also from a series of inlet feed solvent compositions ranging from 50/50% v/v ethanol/water to 100% ethanol and solid-state characterisation was done. The size and morphology of the dried materials were altered with a change in spray drying parameters, with an increase in inlet temperature leading to an increase in particle Sauter mean diameter (from 3.0 to 4.4 µm) and a decrease in the particle size with an increase in ethanol concentration in the feed (from 4.6 to 4.4 µm) as a result of changes in particle density and atomised droplet size. The morphology of the dried particles consisted of agglomerates of individual crystallites bound together into larger semi-spherical agglomerates with a higher tendency for particles having crystalline ridges to form at higher ethanol concentrations of the feed.     

Context-driven mean residual life estimation of mining machinery

Maintenance is crucial to ensure production/output and customer satisfaction in the mining sector. The cost of maintenance of mechanised and automated mining systems is very high, necessitating efforts to enhance the effectiveness of maintenance systems and organisation. For effective maintenance planning, it is important to have a good understanding of the reliability and availability characteristics of the systems. Determining the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of systems allows organisations to more effectively plan maintenance tasks. In this paper, we use a statistical approach to estimate MRL and consider a Weibull proportional hazard model (PHM) with time-independent covariates to model the hazard function so that the operating environment could be integrated into the reliability analysis. The paper explains our methods for calculating the conditional reliability function and computing the MRL as a function of the current conditions. The model is verified and validated using data from the hydraulic system of LHD equipment in a Swedish mine. The results are useful to estimate the remaining useful life of such systems; the method can be used for maintenance planning, helping to control unplanned stoppages of highly mechanised and automated systems.     

Failure load prediction and optimisation for adhesively bonded joints enabled by deep learning and fruit fly optimisation

Adhesively bonded joints have been extensively employed in the aeronautical and automotive industries to join thin-layer materials for developing lightweight components. To strengthen the structural integrity of joints, it is critical to estimate and improve joint failure loads effectually. To accomplish the aforementioned purpose, this paper presents a novel deep neural network (DNN) model-enabled approach, and a single lap joint (SLJ) design is used to support research development and validation. The approach is innovative in the following aspects: (i) the DNN model is reinforced with a transfer learning (TL) mechanism to realise an adaptive prediction on a new SLJ design, and the requirement to re-create new training samples and re-train the DNN model from scratch for the design can be alleviated; (ii) a fruit fly optimisation (FFO) algorithm featured with the parallel computing capability is incorporated into the approach to efficiently optimise joint parameters based on joint failure load predictions. Case studies were developed to validate the effectiveness of the approach. Experimental results demonstrate that, with this approach, the number of datasets and the computational time required to re-train the DNN model for a new SLJ design were significantly reduced by 92.00% and 99.57% respectively, and the joint failure load was substantially increased by 9.96%.     

Wind tunnel study on the influence of different parapets on the roof pressure distribution of low-rise buildings

High suction loads appear on roofs of low-height buildings. The use of parapets with appropriate height at the roof edges alleviates these loads. The performance of six parapet configurations to decrease the suction loads induced on roofs by oblique winds has been studied in a low speed wind tunnel. The studied parapet configurations include vertical wall parapets, either solid or porous, and cantilevered parapets formed by a small horizontal roof close to the building roof. Low-height parapets with a medium porosity and cantilevered parapets are more efficient than solid parapets to reduce the wind suctions generated on the roofs by conical vortices.     

联合Kalman和自适应Meanshift的稳健相关视频跟踪方法

相关视频跟踪器存在计算量大、模板漂移、对机动目标,杂波影响大以及遮挡情况无法跟踪的问题,而Kalman滤波能通过利用相关跟踪器的输出结果来预测目标在下一帧里在图像中的坐标,可以在高概率的小范围内对目标进行搜索,以大幅减小计算量和杂波的影响.然后,当跟踪器由于受到杂波或遮挡的影响而提供了错误的测量信息时,跟踪的性能将大幅下降.大量研究表明,Mean-Shift跟踪器具有运算速度快和跟踪性能好的特点,而当目标柱状图和待选图像区域相近时,其跟踪性能也将大幅下降,甚至无法进行跟踪.为了解决该问题,结合上述3种思想提出了一种改进的、稳健的视频目标跟踪方法,并通过理论分析和仿真结果表明了算法的有效性和优越性.     

A tree-structured crash surrogate measure for freeways

In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to define and estimate a surrogate measure. By imposing a hypothetical disturbance to the leading vehicle, the following vehicle’s action is represented as a probabilistic causal model. After that, a tree is built to describe the eight possible conflict types under the model. The surrogate measure, named Aggregated Crash Index (ACI), is thus proposed to measure the crash risk. This index reflects the accommodability of freeway traffic state to a traffic disturbance. We further apply this measure to evaluate the crash risks in a freeway section of Pacific Motorway, Australia. The results show that the proposed indicator outperforms the three traditional crash surrogate measures (i.e., Time to Collision, Proportion of Stopping Distance, and Crash Potential Index) in representing rear-end crash risks. The applications of this measure are also discussed.