网络环境下服务科学与创新管理研究展望

基于网络环境的服务发展与创新已成为经济发展的新引擎。本文在分析网络环境下服务特征基础上，探讨了其对服务科学与创新管理研究的影响。结合我国社会经济发展对现代服务快速增长的需求，本文提炼了服务科学研究的三类基本科学问题，包括服务价值的内涵与度量，服务资源的要素及其价值生成，和服务关系的界定与形成问题；提出了服务与创新管理的四个重要研究领域，即：服务生态系统的形成与演化，服务资源要素的组织与协调，服务的关联与融合和社会服务运作管理问题。在四个重要研究领域的进一步分析中，论文以一个异质数据服务资源的组织与融合为例，描述了服务资源组织与协调的一个具体问题，说明了已有研究方法解决该问题的困难，和未来该问题研究需要关注的重点；另以平台服务中基于价值和关系的服务定价问题为例，说明服务关联与融合研究的挑战及其未来研究的努力方向。     

Quality Management in Multi‐Level Supply Chains with Outsourced Manufacturing

Outsourcing stretches supply chains longer with added contract manufacturers responsible for the manufacturing of parts and final products. Should a firm change its quality management approach as its supply chain becomes longer with outsourced manufacturing? This paper studies a brand owner's optimal choice between two commonly used quality management approaches: an inspection‐based approach and an external failure‐based approach, in two supply chains – a dyadic supply chain and a multi‐level supply chain where the brand owner outsources manufacturing to an independent contract manufacturer. Our study finds that the brand owner's optimal choice between the two quality management approaches could be opposite in the two supply chains. Specifically, we show that if agency costs exist between the contract manufacturer and the brand owner, the brand owner may prefer an inspection‐based approach in the multi‐level supply chain in contrast to preferring an external failure‐based approach in the dyadic supply chain. In particular, inspections can be effective for the brand owner to limit the manufacturer's profit by excluding defective finished products and components, which in turn reduce agency costs in the multi‐level supply chain. Hence, the efficiency of an inspection‐based approach relative to an external failure‐based approach can be higher in the multi‐level supply chain as compared to the dyadic one. Our findings suggest that firms should adjust to changes in supply chain structures and re‐evaluate the efficiencies of different quality management approaches accordingly.     

产品造型对用户使用意向影响的事件相关电位研究

产品设计能否激发用户的使用意向将决定用户产生进一步体验行为或制定购买决策,传统方法难以保证对用户自身感觉的准确解析。大脑控制着人的一切行为和认知,神经生理学的发展及其测量方法的成熟使从脑认知的角度研究用户体验成为可能。采用事件相关电位技术,以智能手机为研究对象,探索期望体验的形成过程。为尽可能保证脑认知差异是由产品造型激发的期望体验不同而引起的,实验不考虑产品价格和品牌的影响。实验中要求被试浏览不同用户体验水平的智能手机造型,等概率随机呈现这些智能手机造型,当出现能诱发被试使用意向的手机时,要求被试点击鼠标左键。以点击鼠标行为数据(有/无产生期望体验意向)作为脑电处理的依据,将采集的脑信号经过Curry 7.0 SBA处理,然后通过SPSS 18.0对各个时间窗内的事件相关电位的平均幅值进行被试内重复测量方差分析。研究结果表明,在被试对于呈现的智能手机造型产生期望体验意向并做出点击鼠标行为时,与无期望体验意向时相比,能在额区-中央区诱发较小的峰潜伏期的260毫秒左右的负波(N2)和峰潜伏期在400毫秒左右的正波(P3),在中-顶区、顶区和枕区引起更大的峰潜伏期在300毫秒左右的负波(N3)和晚期正波(LPP);头皮地形图显示当被试产生期望体验意向时,被试中-顶区、顶区和枕区得到更强激活。脑电信号可以反映用户有无期望体验意向,也能间接反映产品设计的好坏。通过对用户脑信号的分析,能够提供更精确的测量用户感知的方法,帮助市场研究者更好地锁定用户的心理需求。     

An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards

This article proposes a novel mathematical optimization framework for the identification of the vulnerabilities of electric power infrastructure systems (which is a paramount example of critical infrastructure) due to natural hazards. In this framework, the potential impacts of a specific natural hazard on an infrastructure are first evaluated in terms of failure and recovery probabilities of system components. Then, these are fed into a bi‐level attacker–defender interdiction model to determine the critical components whose failures lead to the largest system functionality loss. The proposed framework bridges the gap between the difficulties of accurately predicting the hazard information in classical probability‐based analyses and the over conservatism of the pure attacker–defender interdiction models. Mathematically, the proposed model configures a bi‐level max‐min mixed integer linear programming (MILP) that is challenging to solve. For its solution, the problem is casted into an equivalent one‐level MILP that can be solved by efficient global solvers. The approach is applied to a case study concerning the vulnerability identification of the georeferenced RTS24 test system under simulated wind storms. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for identifying critical locations under multiple hazard events and, thus, for providing a useful tool to help decisionmakers in making more‐informed prehazard preparation decisions.     

网络舆情管理与股票流动性

投资者因认知资源的限制无法充分接收上市公司发布的信息，现实中往往依赖媒体等第三方市场信息中介获取信息，在网络技术大发展的今日，上市公司会采取主动策略来管理媒体渠道和公司舆情，以期保持良好的公司信息环境。 利用深交所等4家监管机构对深市上市公司网络舆情管理现状的调查数据，通过聚类和主成分分析构建企业网络舆情管理强度指标，研究上市公司主动管理网络舆情对其股票流动性的影响。 研究结果表明，高强度的网络舆情管理有助于提升股票流动性，这一结果在信息环境较差、“可见度”低的公司样本中更明显；当公司出现坏消息或面临负面媒体舆论情绪时，积极的网络舆情管理更有助于改善股票流动性。同时，网络舆情管理提升了股价特质性波动、降低了股价同步性，为主动管理媒体缓解信息不对称、增加股价公司特质信息含量提供了额外证据。 公司进行网络舆情管理能降低投资者信息收集成本和偏差、缓解信息不对称，从而产生与信息披露类似的资本市场效应。研究结果为媒体关注研究提供了新视角，为市场监管者建立以信息披露为中心的监管体系以及上市公司媒体和流动性管理实践提供实证参考。     

考虑异质性行为的灾后应急物资动态调度优化

在以人道主义为本的应急救援活动中，不可忽视被救灾民和施救决策者们异质性行为的影响。一方面，将各灾民因救援物资需求未被及时满足而呈现的差异化心理痛苦度量成经济损失，并纳入应急救援调度的社会成本这一决策目标中；另一方面，在灾后物资调度决策中，关注具有异质性偏好的各应急决策者所展现出的不同救援态度。结合面向联合机会约束规划的动态供需平衡限制，最终构建一个考虑灾民和决策者们异质性行为的多阶段灾后救援物资分配和应急路径优化模型。采用2008年汶川地震为案例背景，应用遗传算法对模型求解和参数分析，将仿真结果与不考虑异质性行为的传统救援调度方案进行比较，得出一些结论为构建高效的应急救援体系提供有益参考。     

人口老龄化、科技创新与新型城镇化的关系研究——基于省际面板数据的PVAR实证分析

借助PVAR方法系统考察了人口老龄化、科技创新与新型城镇化三者的互动关系和影响机制。结果显示:人口老龄化抑制新型城镇化的发展,科技创新对新型城镇化的影响为先抑制后促进,且具有滞后效应,科技创新能够缓解人口老龄化对新型城镇化的影响。据此,提出了应对老龄化、以科技创新为支撑推进新型城镇化建设的建议。     

Is Tattooing a Risk Factor for Adolescents’ Criminal Behavior? Empirical Evidence from an Administrative Data Set of Juvenile Detainees in Taiwan

Juvenile crime affects not only the victims of the crime but also the delinquents’ future. How to prevent adolescent criminal behavior has become an important public policy issue. This study contributes to this interesting issue by examining the relationship between tattooing and adolescents’ criminal behavior. In particular, this study investigates whether or not having a tattoo/tattoos is connected to the incidence of various criminal activities, including: larceny, robbery, fraud, assault, drug use, and homicide. A unique sample of 973 juvenile detainees drawn from the administrative profiles in Taiwan and the coarsened exact matching method were utilized. Results show that compared to their nontattooed counterparts, tattooed juvenile detainees were significantly more likely to commit fraud, assault, drug abuse, and homicide by 3%, 13%, 9%, and 9%, respectively. In contrast, tattooing was not significantly associated with larceny or robbery. From a policy perspective, given the significant link between tattooing and criminal behavior, the presence of a tattoo in adolescents may serve as a valuable indicator regarding adolescents’ high probability of committing crimes.     

Perception of Earthquake Risk in Taiwan: Effects of Gender and Past Earthquake Experience

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer‐assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two‐factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, “personal impact,” encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, “controllability,” encompassed a sense of efficacy of self‐protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly.     

接包方如何克服双方差异对客户满意的阻碍?——以我国信息产业离岸服务外包为例

本文基于社会嵌入的视角,探讨了离岸服务外包业务中发包方与接包方的文化差异与目标差异对客户满意的直接影响,进一步关注了接包方的顾客导向、专项投资和派驻代表等三种机制对上述关系的调节作用。通过对133个接包方企业的问卷调查进行实证分析,本文发现文化差异与目标差异对客户满意的实现确有阻碍作用,而专项投资对两种差异的负向效应均有缓解作用,顾客导向和派驻代表分别只对减缓文化差异与目标差异的负向效应有效。这些发现为接包方克服与发包方之间的差异,提高客户满意从而在离岸服务外包市场上获取更大份额提供了重要借鉴。