The effects of variability in bank material properties on riverbank stability: Goodwin Creek, Mississippi

Bank retreat is an important area of research within fluvial geomorphology and is a land management problem of global significance. The Yazoo River Basin in Mississippi is one example of a system which is experiencing excessive erosion and bank instability. The properties of bank materials are important in controlling the stability of stream banks and past studies have found that these properties are often variable spatially. Through an investigation of bank material properties on a stretch of Goodwin Creek in the Yazoo Basin, Mississippi, this study focuses on: i) how and why effective bank material properties vary through different scales; ii) how this variation impacts on the outputs from a bank stability model; and iii) how best to appropriately represent this variability within a bank stability model.The study demonstrates the importance that the variability of effective bank material properties has on bank stability: at both the micro-scale within a site, and at the meso-scale between sites in a reach. This variability was shown to have important implications for the usage of the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), a deterministic bank stability model that currently uses a single value to describe each bank material property. As a result, a probabilistic representation of effective bank material strength parameters is recommended as a potential solution for any bank stability model that wishes to account for the important influence of the inherent variability of soil properties.     

Time-dependent reliability analysis for radionuclide migration in groundwater in near surface disposal facility using the enhanced Monte Carlo method

In the present study, reliability analysis of near surface disposal facility is performed, by assessing the probability of sequential failure of the multi barrier system using the contaminant transport model. The concentration and dose rate of the radionuclide evolve with time hence there is a need for time dependent reliability analysis. Due to the low values of expected probabilities of failure, an enhanced Monte Carlo (EMC) method and Subset simulation is employed. The Result of the analysis show that, the EMC method is useful to evaluate the probability of failure associated with the barrier system which has low probability of failure.     

System reliability analysis for near-surface radioactive waste disposal facilities

The low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes are generally disposed in near-surface disposal facility (NSDF). The NSDF is composed of engineered barriers. The probabilistic safety assessment model has been developed to analyse the performance of NSDF. The endpoints of the assessment are the concentration of the radionuclide in the groundwater and the corresponding dose rate of the radionuclide. The barrier system can have multiple failure modes but practically the possible failure modes are failure of top cover, failure of waste container, degradation of waste form and failure of bottom cover, which are usually considered as independent failure events. Through a sensitivity analysis, the most critical parameters affecting the design reliability for failure criteria are identified as the groundwater velocity and distribution coefficient. The study shows that for the NSDF considered, there is a high degree of dependence between the failure modes, and demonstrates the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of failures. Thus, the need to consider the system reliability in the NSDF is highlighted. The study also advocates the use of optimisation techniques to evaluate the probability of failure, which provides a better estimate of the probability of failure, as validated from the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulations.     

Influence of model type,bias and input parameter variability on reliability analysis for simple limit states in soil–structure interaction problems

ABSTRACT

A general closed-form solution for the true probability of failure of a simple limit state function with one load term and one resistance term is derived. The formulation considers contributions due to model type, uncertainty in method bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety. Example calculations are presented using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.     

Stochastic inversion for the roll gyradius second moment mass property in ships at full-scale and model-scale

In current Naval Architecture practice, employing static considerations is an important and necessary step in assessing ship stability and seakeeping properties (e.g. inclining experiments, load line regulations, range of stability calculations). However, damaged vessels and vessels operating in heavy weather or in conditions where topside icing is a concern may require an additional assessment of stability that considers dynamic effects. Within such contexts, the actual (i.e. current) second moment properties of the vessel mass become very important in the associated equations of motion for a given ship. One such critical second mass moment property is the roll gyradius, as it is closely related to the occurrence of capsizing. The present paper furnishes a means for reckoning the actual roll gyradius of a given ship operating within a seaway. The approach hinges on the formulation and solution of a stochastic inverse problem that leverages existing seakeeping software against the shipboard inertial measurement unit (IMU) telemetry. The method is demonstrated at full-scale and validated at model scale.     

Effects of cross-correlated multiple spatially random soil properties on wave-induced oscillatory seabed response

The evaluation of seabed response under wave loading is important for prediction of stability of foundations of offshore structures. In this study, a stochastic finite element model which integrates the Karhunen-Loève expansion random field simulation and finite element modeling of wave-induced seabed response is established. The wave-induced oscillatory response in a spatially random heterogeneous porous seabed considering cross-correlated multiple soil properties is investigated. The effects of multiple spatial random soil properties, correlation length and the trend function (the relation of the mean value versus depth) on oscillatory pore water pressure and momentary liquefaction are discussed. The stochastic analyses show that the uncertainty bounds of oscillatory pore water pressure are wider for the case with multiple spatially random soil properties compared with those with the single random soil property. The mean pore water pressure of the stochastic analysis is greater than the one obtained by the deterministic analysis. Therefore, the average momentary liquefaction zone in the stochastic analysis is shallower than the deterministic one. The median of momentary liquefaction depth generally decreases with the increase of vertical correlation length. When the slope of the trend function increases, the uncertainty of pore water pressure is greatly reduced at deeper depth of the seabed. Without considering the trend of soil properties, the wave-induced momentary liquefaction potential may be underestimated.     

更新模型在缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂强震发生概率计算中的应用研究

利用更新模型计算未来几十年内发生强震的条件概率需要给出上一次大震的离逝时间T, 而很多活动断裂上缺少历史大震的记载, 若采用泊松模型则可能会低估强震发生的概率.针对这种缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂, 本文提出一种以记载完整的强震平静期长度T_s为参数的条件概率计算方法. 以东昆仑断裂带塔藏段为实例, 利用本文给出的条件概率计算方法得到该段未来50年发生强震的可能性为0.0649.      

Earthquake vulnerability of school buildings: Probabilistic structural fragility analyses

The study presents probabilistic structural fragility assessment of public school buildings in Istanbul, which were constructed based on a standardized/typical project. The typical structure is a four-story, reinforced concrete shear wall building with moment resisting frames. Derivation of fragility functions rely on nonlinear dynamic analyses through Monte Carlo simulations. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are initially performed for a fully deterministic structural model based on the blueprints of the typical school building project. Uncertainties are introduced in different analysis cases following a modified version of the algorithm presented in Smyth et al. (2004) [21], which considers the effect of the random distribution of the parameters using a Monte Carlo approach. Aleatory uncertainties concerning material properties (i.e. compressive strength of concrete, yield strength of reinforcing steel and concrete density), geometrical characteristics (i.e. span lengths and story heights) and cross sectional dimensions of beams, columns and shear walls as well as epistemic uncertainty in the direction of ground motion excitation are considered. Statistical distributions for the parameters considered are obtained from in-situ measurements and material sampling tests. Fragility functions are produced in terms of peak ground acceleration and velocity as well as of the elastic spectral displacement at the first vibration period of the building. Mean damage ratios are calculated from the derived fragility functions. They are further compared to mean damage ratios calculated for similar building typologies provided in HAZUS-MH technical manual and in Istanbul building inventory.     

基于飞行时间技术PET模拟研究的现状与展望

本文简要介绍基于飞行时间（TOF）技术的正电子发射断层扫描成像（PET）的基本原理以及用于TOF-PET探测器模拟常用的Geant4,GATE,DETECT2000等模拟工具包,回顾近年来相关研究,对基于Monte Carlo方法的各种TOF-PET模拟,对影响LSO/LYSO晶体TOF-PET时间分辨的各项因素的模拟进行综述,并对未来TOF-PET模拟发展提出展望。