浅谈如何推进油田廉洁风险防控工作机制的建立

为了深入开展廉洁风险防控工作,作为中国石化企业都应该积极探索切实可行的廉洁风险防控机制,通过全员清权查险,全面制度预防,建立防控机制,初步形成"权责清晰、流程规范、风险明确、预警及时、监控有效"的特色廉洁风险防控体系,有力促进企业廉洁风险惩防体系的建设。     

腐蚀缺陷管道风险评估有限元模拟研究

腐蚀缺陷的破裂是管道的主要失效形式。通过建立实体单元并考虑几何非线性和材料的非线性,采用线弹性有限元模型对腐蚀缺陷管道参数进行了计算和分析。通过对模型上不同形状和位置的缺陷进行模拟,设定不同的压力条件和缺陷处管壁的厚度,分别计算出在每个压力情况下不同厚度时缺陷处强度值,得出腐蚀缺陷管道内压、缺陷厚度与缺陷处应力三者之间的关系,进而对腐蚀缺陷管道进行初步的风险评估。     

Categorization of risk factors for distributed agile projects

ContextOrganizations combine agile approach and Distributed Software Development (DSD) in order to develop better quality software solutions in lesser time and cost. It helps to reap the benefits of both agile and distributed development but pose significant challenges and risks. Relatively scanty evidence of research on the risks prevailing in distributed agile development (DAD) has motivated this study.ObjectiveThis paper aims at creating a comprehensive set of risk factors that affect the performance of distributed agile development projects and identifies the risk management methods which are frequently used in practice for controlling those risks.MethodThe study is an exploration of practitioners’ experience using constant comparison method for analyzing in-depth interviews of thirteen practitioners and work documents of twenty-eight projects from thirteen different information technology (IT) organizations. The field experience was supported by extensive research literature on risk management in traditional, agile and distributed development.ResultsAnalysis of qualitative data from interviews and project work documents resulted into categorization of forty-five DAD risk factors grouped under five core risk categories. The risk categories were mapped to Leavitt’s model of organizational change for facilitating the implementation of results in real world. The risk factors could be attributed to the conflicting properties of DSD and agile development. Besides that, some new risk factors have been experienced by practitioners and need further exploration as their understanding will help the practitioners to act on time.ConclusionOrganizations are adopting DAD for developing solutions that caters to the changing business needs, while utilizing the global talent. Conflicting properties of DSD and agile approach pose several risks for DAD. This study gives a comprehensive categorization of the risks faced by the practitioners in managing DAD projects and presents frequently used methods to reduce their impact. The work fills the yawning research void in this field.     

基于大数据分析恐怖袭击风险预测研究与仿真

在对恐怖袭击风险预测过程中,在建立预测模型时,由于受到恐怖袭击带有伪装性的影响,存在大量的伪装性样本和干扰性数据,真实的样本不充足、可统计数据波动较大.导致预测过程很容易受到干扰,存在预测精度低的问题.提出了大数据分析的恐怖袭击风险预测方法.建立恐怖袭击风险综合评判的大数据分析模型,采用大数据分析模型对恐怖袭击历史数据中隐含的可演化信息进行学习,利用所获取的结果进行未来的恐怖袭击预测.预测过程中融入多步时间序列预测中的递推计算的思想,将每一步预测的不确定性作为下一次预测迭代的输入要素加以充分考虑,提升预测精确度.仿真结果证明,采用大数据分析的恐怖袭击风险预测方法精确度和效率都比较高.     

Effectiveness of Security Control Risk Assessments for Enterprises: Assess on the Business Perspective of Security Risks

ABSTRACT

Today's businesses being IT enabled, the complexity of risks affecting the business has increased manifold and the need to gauge the Information Technology risks acting on the business operations has become paramount. The business managers who run business operations need to operate securely and seamlessly leveraging Information Technology and ability to recover and resume the business without any loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of business information/data in any event of a security incident.

There is a need to quantify the impact of the IT security risk on the critical business processes, and provide the business-level insight at the management level. It is critical to classifying the Risk Ratings as per the impact on the business operations. This approach allows the organizations to understand and prioritize the security risk management activities that make the most sense for their organization to secure the business operations instead of trying to protect against every conceivable threat.     

Our current understanding of lake ecosystem response to climate change: What have we really learned from the north temperate deep lakes?

Climatic change is recognized as an important factor capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lake ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change. Several long time-series studies have shown close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food-web structure. Understanding the complex interplay between climate, hydrological variability, and ecosystem structure and functioning is essential to inform water resources risk assessment and fisheries management. The purpose of this paper is to present the current understanding of climate-induced changes on lake ecosystem phenology. We first review the ability of climate to modulate the interactions among lake hydrodynamics, chemical factors, and food-web structure in several north temperate deep lakes (e.g., Lake Washington, Lake Tahoe, Lake Constance, Lake Geneva, Lake Baikal, and Lake Zurich). Our aim is to assess long-term trends in the physical (e.g., temperature, timing of stratification, and duration of ice cover), chemical (e.g., nutrient concentrations), and biological (e.g., timing of the spring bloom, phytoplankton composition, and zooplankton abundance) characteristics of the lakes and to examine the signature of local weather conditions (e.g., air temperature and rainfall) and large-scale climatic variability (e.g., ENSO and PDO) on the lake physics, chemistry and biology. We also conducted modeling experiments to quantify the relative effect of climate change and nutrient loading on lake phenology. These modeling experiments focused on the relative changes to the major causal associations underlying plankton dynamics during the spring bloom and the summer stratified period. To further understand the importance of climate change on lakes, we propose two complementary directions of future research. First, additional research is needed to elucidate the wide array of in-lake processes that are likely to be affected by the climate change. Second, it is essential to examine the heterogeneity in responses among different water bodies. The rationale of this approach and its significance for dealing with the uncertainty that the climate signals cascade through lake ecosystems and shape abiotic variability and/or biotic responses have been recently advocated by several other synthesis papers.     

康山蓄滞洪区洪水风险图研制分析

根据康山蓄滞洪区基础资料,分析不同洪水风险图编制方法,并研制了康山蓄滞洪区洪水风险图,给防汛部门实施指挥决策、抢险救灾提供依据,确保康山蓄滞洪区分洪运用前人员安全及时转移,最大限度地避免人员伤亡,减轻财产损失.     

P2P网络中基于信任的风险计算方法

由于P2P网络的开放性和动态性,对等点信息交换不可避免地会给系统带来安全问题。提出了运用信任评价与传统的风险计算相结合的方法来评估对等点信息交换中的风险。风险度的计算来源于信任风险和后果风险。信任风险是对节点长期累积行为表现的评价,反映了信任和风险之间的关系;后果风险是对节点短期行为所导致后果的评价。仿真实验表明,运用基于信任的风险计算方法可以有效地评估对等点间信息交换的风险。     

信息安全风险管理绩效研究

分析了当前风险管理的现状和所面临的问题,并通过风险确认,提出了一个风险管理效率判别模型,以对风险管理方案进行判别,找出最佳的风险管理方案.通过分析进一步指出了基于信息资产提供业务的风险管理投资和安全事件损失的联系,并对其有效性进行了验证.实验结果表明,此方法是行之有效的.     

基于粗糙集的软件项目风险管理研究

软件项目的复杂性导致软件风险涉及的数据具有很大的不确定性和模糊性。由此基于粗糙集理论,分析了软件项目风险管理的历史数据:利用等价类和分辨矩阵等概念提出软件项目风险分析系统,在此基础上给出了两个风险因子的相关性系数以及不可分辨矩阵的计算方法。此项工作能为风险控制提供策略,有助于发现风险管理活动中的薄弱环节,达到改进过程的目的。