排序方式: 共有45条查询结果,搜索用时 29 毫秒
31.
Mesoscale predictability of mei-yu heavy rainfall 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Recently reported results indicate that small amplitude and small scale initial errors grow rapidly and subsequently contaminate short-term deterministic mesoscale forecasts. This rapid error growth is dependent on not only moist convection but also the flow regime. In this study, the mesoscale predictability and error growth of mei-yu heavy rainfall is investigated by simulating a particular precipitation event along the mei-yu front on 4-6 July 2003 in eastern China. Due to the multi-scale character of th... 相似文献
32.
Limitations in the predictability of quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) that arise from initial errors of small amplitude and scale are investigated by means of real-case high-resolution (cloud-resolving) numerical weather prediction (NWP) integrations. The case considered is the hail and wind disaster that occurred in Sichuan on 8 April 2005. A total of three distinct perturbation methods are used. The results suggest that a tiny initial error in the temperature field can amplify and influence the weather in a large domain, changing the 12-h forecasted rainfall by as much as one-third of the original magnitude. Furthermore, the comparison of the perturbation methods indicates that all of the methods pinpoint the same region (the heavy rainfall areas in the control experiment) as suffering from limitations in predictability. This result reveals the important role of nonlinearity in severe convective events. 相似文献
33.
Two different methods for incorporating diffraction effect into wave action balance equation based coastal spectral wave models, WABED and SWAN, are discussed and evaluated with respect to their formulations, numerical implementations, and modeling capabilities. Both models were run to simulate the wave transformation through a gap between two infinitely long breakwaters and that across an elliptical shoal observed in laboratory studies, with the emphasis laid on the diffraction induced by either obstacles or wave amplitude variations. Calculations of WABED were compared with Som-merfeld's analytical solutions, experimental observations and SWAN simulations. It is shown that both methods can predict reasonably wave difiraction for the two cases studied herein, and a fairly better performance is provided by WABED for stronger difiraction case. 相似文献
34.
有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展 总被引:14,自引:15,他引:14
南半球大气环流是全球大气环流的重要组成部分,也是影响气候变化和亚洲季风系统的一个重要因素.中国气象学家很早就注意到南半球大气环流对东亚夏季风降水的影响.近年来,有关南半球气候变率的研究目前正受到世界气象学家越来越多的关注.南半球中高纬大气资料的丰富及南极涛动的确定,使得认识南半球高中纬环流的年际变动规律及其与东亚气候关系成为可能.本文主要介绍近年来有关南极涛动的年际变化与沙尘天气发生频次及东亚冬春季气候的关系,古气候资料揭示的南极涛动与华北降水的关系,以及南半球大气环流与长江中下游夏季降水的关系和南极涛动变率的可预测性等方面的研究进展.并对未来研究方向作了初步的展望. 相似文献
35.
36.
利用中国科学院大气物理研究所(IAP,Institute of Atmospheric Physics)3个大气环流模式(AGCM,Atmospheric General Circulation Model)和欧洲多模式集合预报计划(DEMETER,Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction)中7个海气耦合模式(CGCM,Coupled General Circulation Model)的1981—2000年共20 a集合回报结果,比较了不同模式在热带地区,尤其是热带西太平洋地区夏季平均降水的可预测性差异。结果表明:所有模式都能够较好地再现这20 a平均降水的空间分布特征;IAP 9层AGCM最好地再现了热带西太平洋地区,尤其是140°E以西地区降水异常的主要空间特征,而CGCM则对海洋上空的降水异常特征有较好的回报能力。回报的降水异常量值偏弱和系统偏移使得IAP的AGCM原始回报技巧评分明显低于CGCM,但是经过统计订正后AGCM对热带夏季降水表现出与CGCM相当的可预测性。统计订正方法对部分CGCM模式的预报评分也有改进效果,但是当模式原始预报评分较好时订正方法的效果并不明显。对于IAP模式,随着IAP大气模式的不断改进,模式对热带西太平洋降水预测改进最为明显,但是在太平洋东部地区,IAP大气模式依然存在降水异常偏弱的不足。 相似文献
37.
38.
地震可预测性研究的CSEP计划及其启示 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
地震可预测性是当前地震预测预报研究关注的前沿问题,对此问题的关注也代表了地震预测预报研究的现状,即采用更务实的态度、“循序渐进”地研究地震的可预测属性。本文介绍了国际上目前在地震可预测性研究中影响较大的“地震可预测性合作研究”(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability,CSEP)计划,通过对CSEP计划的历史背景、研究现状和技术特点的介绍,讨论了其对中国地震预测预报研究的可能的启发意义。 相似文献
39.
1 地震孕育与发生过程的复杂性 地壳运动与孕震系统是复杂系统,系统内部各部分之间及其与环境之间均存在着复杂的相互作用,呈现出多样性和整体性功能的统一. 相似文献
40.
地震学与地震可预测性国际研讨会(ISESEP 09)于2009年7月5日至9日在北京举行。会议主办单位为中国地震学会和中国地震局。 相似文献