证据权模型与含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法相结合的资源潜力评价新方法

本文提出了计算含矿单元数概率分布函数的新方法,在此基础上,把证据权模型矿产资源评价方法得到的含矿网格单元作为蒙特卡洛模型中的统计对象,得到了与证据权模型找矿法结合的含矿网格单元蒙特卡洛法矿产资源潜力评价方法。该方法可以把评价工作区的矿产空间分布信息、成矿模式和找矿模型、成矿-找矿空间信息引入蒙特卡洛方法中,无需估计矿床个数分布,减少了工作步骤和评价误差,可提高工作效率和自动化。对实际案例的应用表明该方法是可行的。     

裂隙岩体三维柔度张量的数值试验方法

在裂隙岩体二维柔度张量数值试验的基础上,建立了裂隙岩体三维柔度张量及其表征单元体积（REV）尺度研究的简化数值试验方法。首先根据岩体裂隙的统计参数及分布规律,运用蒙特卡罗方法在研究域内获得与实际岩体裂隙同分布的三维随机裂隙网络,提取位于不同方位的岩体试件,运用二维柔度张量的数值试验方法求出各个平面方向上的二维柔度张量,然后根据二维与三维柔度张量的拓扑关系,用数学方法求解裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。对于含3组正交全贯通裂隙的岩体,通过数值试验获得的柔度张量与理论解相比,其主对角线上各参数的误差在5%以内,表明该数值试验方法较为可靠。最后将此方法运用到小湾水电站工程中,确定左岸坝区裂隙岩体的应力REV为11 m×11 m×11 m,并获得该区域裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。     

路堤边坡稳定可靠度计算中的模型不确定性分析

基于均质路堤边坡Monte Carlo法的稳定可靠度计算,分析了临界滑面搜索策略和稳定分析方法两类模型不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响特性,讨论了边坡失效概率随土工参数变异性的变化规律。研究表明,选用不同的临界滑面搜索策略所得可靠度结果差异不大,参数滑面法（overall slope）的失效概率略大于均值滑面法（global minimum）,但差别对边坡稳定性分析没有实质性影响;土性参数变异水平是影响边坡可靠度的最重要因素,边坡在相同设计参数安全系数下的可靠度指标随参数变异性增大而急剧降低;不同稳定性分析方法对应的安全系数概率密度函数曲线形态基本一致,但失效概率差异明显,因此目标可靠度指标取值应与稳定性分析方法相适应。提出的考虑土工参数变异水平的安全系数取值修正原则,对改进确定性设计的边坡稳定分析技术有积极意义。     

基于蒙特卡罗法的三源锥束CT散射分析

在医用X-CT中,散射现象对重建图像的质量有重要的影响。多源锥束CT是医用CT的一种发展趋势,可成倍提高时间分辨率。但与单源CT相比,多源CT额外的光源会导致散射现象的加重,因此在实际应用中需要着重考虑这一问题。本文在开源工具EGSnrc的基础上,开发了一套基于蒙特卡罗法的CT仿真软件SimProj,用该软件获得了贴近...     

塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区极端弱降水的时空变化特征

选用塔克拉玛干沙漠周边40个气象站1961-2009年日降水资料和4个极端弱降水指标,分析该地区极端弱降水的时空变化特征。采用M-K法和F检验对各站点降水指标的变化趋势及变化率进行检验和计算,并利用Monte Carlo模拟进行区域显著性检验。由 Copula函数得到两降水指标的联合分布,计算两降水指标的联合重现期。结果表明：（1）年最长连续无降水日数（CDD）多为80～100 d,呈显著减少趋势;出现频率最高的每年日降水量小于降水日序列25%分位数的日数（D₂₅）为0～10 d,呈显著增加趋势;每年日降水量小于降水日序列25%分位数的总降水量（P₂₅）的值集中在0～1.5 mm,2～3 mm的 P₂₅从2000年才开始出现;出现频率最高的每年日降水量小于降水日序列25%分位数的日平均降水量（I₂₅）为0.1～0.3 mm,I₂₅超过0.4 mm的情况极少出现。（2）CDD与D₂₅和P₂₅各自五年一遇值的空间分布相反。除CDD和D₂₅均大于各自五年一遇值的联合重现期较长外,其余各类型联合重现期较短。沙漠周边地区发生不同类型极端弱降水事件的概率不同。     

Stochastic dynamic stiffness of a surface footing for offshore wind turbines: Implementing a subset simulation method to estimate rare events

The purpose of this study, which concerns the stochastic dynamic stiffness of foundations for large offshore wind turbines, is to quantify uncertainties related to the first natural frequency of a turbine supported by a surface footing and to estimate the low event probabilities. Herein, a simple model of a wind turbine structure with equivalent coupled springs at the base is calibrated with the mean soil property values. A semianalytical solution, based on the Green׳s function for a layered half-space is utilized for estimation of foundation responses. Soil elastic modulus and layer depth are considered as random variables with lognormal distributions. The uncertainties are quantified, and the estimation of rare events of the first natural frequency is discussed through an advanced reliability approach based on subset simulation. This analysis represents a first step in the estimation of the safety with respect to the failure of a turbine in the fatigue limit state.     

Sampling efficiency in Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategies: Application in seawater intrusion simulations

The implementation of Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) for the propagation of uncertainty in real-world seawater intrusion (SWI) numerical models often becomes computationally prohibitive due to the large number of deterministic solves needed to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. Previous studies have mostly relied on parallelization and grid computing to decrease the computational time of MCSs. However, another approach which has received less attention in the literature is to decrease the number of deterministic simulations by using more efficient sampling strategies. Sampling efficiency is a measure of the optimality of a sampling strategy. A more efficient sampling strategy requires fewer simulations and less computational time to reach a certain level of accuracy. The efficiency of a sampling strategy is highly related to its space-filling characteristics.This paper illustrates that the use of optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) strategies instead of the widely employed simple random sampling (SRS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) strategies, can significantly improve sampling efficiency and hence decrease the simulation time of MCSs. Nine OLHS strategies are evaluated including: improved Latin hypercube sampling (IHS); optimum Latin hypercube (OLH) sampling; genetic optimum Latin hypercube (GOLH) sampling; three sampling strategies based on the enhanced stochastic evolutionary (ESE) algorithm namely φ_p-ESE which employs the φ_p space-filling criterion, CLD-ESE which utilizes the centered L₂-discrepancy (CLD) space-filling criterion, and SLD-ESE which uses the star L₂-discrepancy (SLD) space-filling criterion; and three sampling strategies based on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm namely φ_p-SA which employs the φ_p criterion, CLD-SA which uses the CLD criterion, and SLD-SA which utilizes the SLD criterion. The study applies SRS, LHS and the nine OLHS strategies to MCSs of two synthetic test cases of SWI. The two test cases are the Henry problem and a two-dimensional radial representation of SWI in a circular island. The comparison demonstrates that the CLD-ESE strategy is the most efficient among the evaluated strategies. This paper also demonstrates how the space-filling characteristics of different OLHS designs change with variations in the input arguments of their optimization algorithms.     

甘肃黄土高边坡可靠度研究

以甘肃省266个黄土自然极限状态坡为研究对象,将其按地形地貌、地层岩性等特征划分为4个亚区,对每个亚区的极限状态坡高与坡宽进行双对数线性模型回归和不同置信度下的统计分析,给出4个亚区不同置信度下坡高与坡宽的相关关系。以1 024组黄土物理力学指标统计结果作为计算参数,用Bishop法的稳定系数计算公式建立极限状态方程,利用 Monte Carlo法对各亚区不同置信度下的边坡进行可靠度模拟,系统分析了坡高、坡度、参数变异性对失效概率的影响,以及失效概率与稳定系数的关系。结果表明,临洮-永靖亚区边坡坡度低于31.5?,失效概率可控制在10%以下;陇东亚区、兰州-定西-会宁亚区和天水-秦安-通渭亚区在强度参数变异系数取当地平均水平,稳定系数为1.3情况下失效概率在10%以内,稳定系数为1.2情况下,失效概率多在20%以内。     

Correlation failure analysis of an uncertain hysteretic vibration system

In this paper, a numerical method for correlation sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear random vibration system is presented. Based on the first passage failure model, the probability perturbation method is employed to determine the statistical characteristics of failure modes and the correlation between them. The sensitivity of correlation between failure modes with respect to random parameters characterizing the uncertainty of the hysteretic loop is discussed. In a numerical example, a two-DOF shear structure with uncertain hysteretic restoring force is considered. The statistical characteristics of response, failure modes and the sensitivity of random hysteretic loop parameters are provided, and also compared with a Monte Carlo simulation.