Assessing vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the southwestern karst region of China with AVHRR NDVI and AVHRR NPP time-series

The relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics in the southwestern karst region of China has been identified by recent studies. Based on previous researches and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) GIMMS (Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) (1982–2003) and AVHRR GloPEM (Global Production Efficiency Model) NPP (Net Primary Production) (1981–2000) datasets, vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the southwestern karst region of China were assessed. The results show that: (1) since the early 1980s, both vegetation cover density and net primary production have insignificant ascending tendencies. However, the inter-annual variation rates of vegetation indexes have apparent spatial differentiations; (2) the correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors vary geographically; (3) as indicated by NDVI and NPP, various vegetation types have different responses to climate change, and the annual mean temperature variation has more significant impact on vegetation dynamics than the annual precipitation variation in the study area; (4) distribution laws of correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors in different climate conditions are apparent. All these findings will enrich our knowledge of the natural forces which impact the stability of the karst ecosystems and provide scientific basis for the management of the karst ecosystems.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Space and time distributions of major winter storms in the United States

Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.     

Losses from sleet storms in the United States

Increasing losses of life and property and damages to the environment due to sleet and related winter storm conditions have increased the need for long-term sleet storm data to better assess the point and regional risks of sleet and their long-term variations. The areas of greatest losses and frequency of catastrophes caused by sleet during 1971–2007 are the Northeast and Central regions of the U.S. These two regions experienced 72% of all the nation’s sleet losses. Most of the western U.S. had no damaging sleet-related events or losses. When sleet losses occurred, they tended to be in 2, 3, or 4 adjacent states. Sleet catastrophes were most common in January with 15 of the 30 events. The earliest storm occurred in October and the latest in March. The temporal distributions of catastrophes and their losses during 1971–2007 were similar. Both showed a secondary peak in 1976–1979, a low in 1988–1991, and then high values during the 1996–2007 period. The temporal distributions of damaging storms and losses indicate an upward trend over time.     

Depositional model and stratigraphic architecture of rift climax Gilbert-type fan deltas (Gulf of Corinth, Greece)

Facies, depositional model and stratigraphic architecture of Pleistocene giant Gilbert-type fan deltas are presented, based on outcrop data from the Derveni–Akrata region along the southern coast of the Gulf of Corinth, Greece. The common tripartite consisting of topset, foreset and bottomset [Gilbert, G.K., 1885. The topographic features of lake shores: Washington, D.C., United States Geol. Survey, 5th Annual Report, 69–123.] has been identified, as well as the most distal environment consisting of turbidites, and is organised in a repetitive pattern of four main systems tracts showing a clear facies and volumetric partitioning.The first systems tract (ST1) is characterised by the lack of topset beds and the development of a by-pass surface instead, thick foresets and bottomset beds, and thick well-developed turbiditic systems. This systems tract (ST1) is organised in an overall progradational pattern. The second systems tract (ST2) is characterised by a thin topset and almost no foreset equivalent. This systems tract is not always well-preserved and is organised in an overall retrograding trend with a landward shift in the position of the offlap break. The offshore is characterised by massive sandy turbidites. The third systems tract (ST3) is characterised by small-scale deltas prograding above the staked topsets of the giant Gilbert-type fan delta. Those small Gilbert-type fan deltas are generally organised in a pure progradation evolving to an aggradational–progradational pattern. In the distal setting of those small Gilbert-type fan deltas, almost no deposits are preserved on the remaining topography of the previous Gilbert-type fan delta. The fourth systems tract (ST4) is characterised by continuous vertically aggrading topsets that laterally pass into aggrading and prograding foresets. Bottomsets and distal turbiditic systems are starved. This fourth systems tract (ST4) is organised in an overall aggrading trend.These giant Gilbert-type fan deltas correspond to the Middle Group of the Corinth Rift infill and their stratigraphic development was strongly influenced by evolving rift structure. They record the migration of the depocenter from the rift shoulder to the rift axis in four main sequences from ca. 1.5 to 0.7 Ma, related to the migration of fault activity. It is worth noting that the maximum paleobathymetry was recorded during the final stage of the progradation of the Middle Group, suggesting that the rift climax was diachronous at the scale of the entire basin. The rapid (< 1 Ma) structural and sedimentological evolution, the migration of fault activity as well as the youth of the Corinth Rift, are probably exceptional factors allowing the characterisation of such diachronism.     

Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001–2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.     

The Interaction of Religion,Political Ideology,and Concern About Climate Change in the United States

Political ideology and religion are considered important influences on attitudes about climate change, as many people rely on ideological and religious cues to help shape attitudes about this highly complex, uncertain, and politicized issue. While many scholars have studied the impacts of political orientation and religious affiliation independently, few have studied whether and how they interact in shaping concern about climate change. This article uses a large sample study to examine the impact of religious tradition on two indicators of concern about climate change within categories of political ideology. This study shows that religious affiliation moderates the impact of ideology, and that these interaction effects vary across religious traditions. Perhaps most significantly, this study reveals that religious affiliation is most influential on political liberals but has very little impact on conservatives. This holds significant implications for the way we understand the relationship between religion and environmental attitudes.     

The Influence of Religious Affiliation on Community Views about Environment,Climate Change,and Renewable Energy in and around the Mormon Culture Region

While political ideology is a consistent predictor of public environmental views in the United States, religious affiliation may also be an important correlate of environmental attitudes, especially in regions with a majority denomination. Using data from a 2014 survey in five communities across Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming (n = 906) experiencing renewable energy development, we investigate the influence of religious affiliation on environmental beliefs, views about climate change, and support for renewable energy. We are particularly interested in the influence of Mormonism, an understudied area of research. We find Mormonism, Protestantism, and Catholicism all significantly and negatively related to general pro-environment beliefs. However, this relationship doesn’t hold as consistently for views about global warming or renewable energy development. We also find income, gender, length of residence, and political orientation to be important predictors of environmental attitudes, and that general environmental beliefs are only weakly related to views about renewable energy.     

用 IAP／LASG GOALS模式模拟CO2增加引起的东亚地区气候变化

Two simulations, one for the control run and another for the perturbation run, with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system model (IAP / LASG GOALS version 4) have been carried out to study the global warming, with much detailed emphasis on East Asia. Results indicate that there is no climate drift in the control run and at the time of CO2 doubling the global temperature increases about 1.65℃. The GOALS model is able to simulate the observed spatial distribution and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for East Asia quite well. But, in general, the model underestimates temperature and overestimates rainfall amount for regional annual average. For the climate change in East Asia, the temperature and precipitation in East Asia increase 2. l℃ and 5% respectively, and the maximum warming occurs at middle-latitude continent and the maximum precipitation increase occurs around 25°N with reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific.     

Recent Researches on the Short-Term Climate Prediction at IAP－A Brief Review

Studies on the seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) in recent years were reviewed. The first short-term climate prediction experiment was carried out based on the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a tropical Pacific oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In 1997, an ENSO prediction system including an oceanic initialization scheme was set up. At the same time, researches on the SST-induced climate predictability over East Asia were made. Based on the biennial signal in the interannual climate variability, an effective method was proposed for correcting the model predicted results recently. In order to consider the impacts of the initial soil mois ture anomalies, an empirical scheme was designed to compute the soil moisture by use of the atmospheric quantities like temperature, precipitation, and so on. Sets of prediction experiments were carried out to study the impacts of SST and the initial atmospheric conditions on the flood occurring over China in 1998.     

Effects of Topographic Slopes on Hydrological Proecsses and Climate

Based on previous research results on river re-distribution models, a modification on the effects of topographic slopes for a runoff parameterization was proposed and implemented to the NCAR＇s land sur face model (LSM). This modification has two aspects: firstly, the topographic slopes cause outflows from higher topography and inflows into the lower topography points; secondly, topographic slopes also cause decrease of infiltration at higher topography and increases of infiltration at lower topography. Then changes in infiltration result in changes in soil moisture, surface fluxes and then in surface temperature, and eventual ly in the upper atmosphere and the climate. This mechanism is very clearly demonstrated in the point bud gets analysis at the Andes Mountains vicinities. Analysis from a regional scale perspective in the Mackenzie GEWEX Study (MAGS) area, the focus of the ongoing Canadian GEWEX program, shows that the modi fied runoff parameterization does bring significant changes in the regional surface climate. More important ly, detailed analysis from a global perspective shows many encouraging improvements introduced by the modified LSM over the original model in simulating basic atmospheric climate properties such as thermodynamic features (temperature and humidity). All of these improvements in the atmospheric climate simulation illustrate that the inclusion of topographic effects in the LSM can force the AGCM to produce a more realistic model climate.