微小流量pVTt法气体流量标准装置的研制

介绍了20LpVTt法气体流量标准装置的设计原理和方案,并给出了装置中主要参数的测试方法及装置的不确定度评定。     

不完备信息系统中决策规则的不确定性表示

将完备信息系统中决策规则的不确定性度量引入到不完备信息系统中,充分讨论了条件属性值缺失时规则的不确定性度量表现为概率区间的特性,在此基础上给出了确信度和覆盖度的近似概率值,并利用确信度计算出规则对分类的反映程度.     

基于同构化信息融合的异构不确定多属性决策新模型与新算法

不确定多属性决策过程中,现有两大困难:(1)如何较好地表达和处理具有不确定性的属性评价信息;(2)如何将基于多样性评判准则的多准则评价结果进行信息融合,并获得更合理的综合评价结论.基于同构化思想,针对学术界最近才提出的一种能较好地处理具有多信息来源模糊信息的新数学模型"多值直觉模糊集模型",研究了多值直觉模糊集的隶属度与非隶属度的综合评判新课题与新方法;提出了兼有不确定语言型与区间型的异构风险型多属性决策新问题与新模型,构造了基于同构化信息融合的异构不确定多属性决策新模型与新算法.     

Approximate probabilistic optimization using exact-capacity-approximate-response-distribution (ECARD)

Probabilistic structural design deals with uncertainties in response (e.g. stresses) and capacity (e.g. failure stresses). The calculation of the structural response is typically expensive (e.g., finite element simulations), while the capacity is usually available from tests. Furthermore, the random variables that influence response and capacity are often disjoint. In previous work we have shown that this disjoint property can be used to reduce the cost of obtaining the probability of failure via Monte Carlo simulations. In this paper we propose to use this property for an approximate probabilistic optimization based on exact capacity and approximate response distributions (ECARD). In Approximate Probabilistic Optimization Using ECARD, the change in response distribution is approximated as the structure is re-designed while the capacity distribution is kept exact, thus significantly reducing the number of expensive response simulations. ECARD may be viewed as an extension of SORA (Sequential Optimization and Reliability Assessment), which proceeds with deterministic optimization iterations. In contrast, ECARD has probabilistic optimization iterations, but in each iteration, the response distribution is approximated so as not to require additional response calculations. The use of inexpensive probabilistic optimization allows easy incorporation of system reliability constraints and optimal allocation of risk between failure modes. The method is demonstrated using a beam problem and a ten-bar truss problem. The former allocates risk between two different failure modes, while the latter allocates risk between members. It is shown that ECARD provides most of the improvement from risk re-allocation that can be obtained from full probabilistic optimization.     

网络受限移动对象不确定性轨迹的索引

近年来,人们对于如何表示和处理移动对象的不确定性进行了研究,提出了一些较为有效的模型和算法.但是,在如何索引移动对象的不确定时空轨迹方面,相关的研究工作十分有限.为了解决上述问题,本文提出了一种网络受限移动对象不确定轨迹的索引结构(UTR-Tree),并给出了相关的索引更新及查询算法.在该索引结构的支持下,移动对象数据库不仅可以快速地处理对移动对象过去可能位置的查询,而且能够对其现在及将来的可能位置进行高效的查询处理.     

Probabilistic prediction methods for nonlinear systems with application to stochastic model predictive control

The performance of modern control methods, such as model predictive control, depends significantly on the accuracy of the system model. In practice, however, stochastic uncertainties are commonly present, resulting from inaccuracies in the modeling or external disturbances, which can have a negative impact on the control performance. This article reviews the literature on methods for predicting probabilistic uncertainties for nonlinear systems. Since a precise prediction of probability density functions comes along with a high computational effort in the nonlinear case, the focus of this article is on approximating methods, which are of particular relevance in control engineering practice. The methods are classified with respect to their approximation type and with respect to the assumptions about the input and output distribution. Furthermore, the application of these prediction methods to stochastic model predictive control is discussed including a literature review for nonlinear systems. Finally, the most important probabilistic prediction methods are evaluated numerically. For this purpose, the estimation accuracies of the methods are investigated first and the performance of a stochastic model predictive controller with different prediction methods is examined subsequently using multiple nonlinear systems, including the dynamics of an autonomous vehicle.     

Disaggregating growth in future retail electricity rates

The retail rate impacts of a number of emerging trends (e.g., rapid deployment of electric vehicles and storage, transmission build-out for large-scale renewables deployment, and grid modernization) are unknown. Importantly, decision-makers are concerned about the potential future rate impacts on energy affordability and equity. We disaggregate the key drivers of retail electricity rates and assess their impacts on future rate growth considering their interactions and uncertainty. Specifically, we develop ranges of future cost growth for a generic investor-owned and vertically-integrated electric utility representing typical cost and operating characteristics. The rate driver growth rate ranges are applied in isolation and jointly to quantify the uncertainty and variability in future retail electricity rates. The results identify what rate drivers and factors may minimize and/or decrease uncertainty in retail rate growth and their linkages to industry trends.     

Single image shadow detection via uncertainty analysis and GCN-based refinement strategy

Learning-based shadow detection methods have achieved an impressive performance, while these works still struggle on complex scenes, especially ambiguous soft shadows. To tackle this issue, this work proposes an efficient shadow detection network (ESDNet) and then applies uncertainty analysis and graph convolutional networks for detection refinement. Specifically, we first aggregate global information from high-level features and harvest shadow details in low-level features for obtaining an initial prediction. Secondly, we analyze the uncertainty of our ESDNet for an input shadow image and then take its intensity, expectation, and entropy into account to formulate a semi-supervised graph learning problem. Finally, we solve this problem by training a graph convolution network to obtain the refined detection result for every training image. To evaluate our method, we conduct extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets, i.e., SBU, UCF, ISTD, and even on soft shadow scenes. Experimental results demonstrate that our strategy can improve shadow detection performance by suppressing the uncertainties of false positive and false negative regions, achieving state-of-the-art results.     

Robust solutions to Stackelberg games: Addressing bounded rationality and limited observations in human cognition

How do we build algorithms for agent interactions with human adversaries? Stackelberg games are natural models for many important applications that involve human interaction, such as oligopolistic markets and security domains. In Stackelberg games, one player, the leader, commits to a strategy and the follower makes her decision with knowledge of the leader's commitment. Existing algorithms for Stackelberg games efficiently find optimal solutions (leader strategy), but they critically assume that the follower plays optimally. Unfortunately, in many applications, agents face human followers (adversaries) who — because of their bounded rationality and limited observation of the leader strategy — may deviate from their expected optimal response. In other words, human adversaries' decisions are biased due to their bounded rationality and limited observations. Not taking into account these likely deviations when dealing with human adversaries may cause an unacceptable degradation in the leader's reward, particularly in security applications where these algorithms have seen deployment. The objective of this paper therefore is to investigate how to build algorithms for agent interactions with human adversaries.To address this crucial problem, this paper introduces a new mixed-integer linear program (MILP) for Stackelberg games to consider human adversaries, incorporating: (i) novel anchoring theories on human perception of probability distributions and (ii) robustness approaches for MILPs to address human imprecision. Since this new approach considers human adversaries, traditional proofs of correctness or optimality are insufficient; instead, it is necessary to rely on empirical validation. To that end, this paper considers four settings based on real deployed security systems at Los Angeles International Airport (Pita et al., 2008 [35]), and compares 6 different approaches (three based on our new approach and three previous approaches), in 4 different observability conditions, involving 218 human subjects playing 2960 games in total. The final conclusion is that a model which incorporates both the ideas of robustness and anchoring achieves statistically significant higher rewards and also maintains equivalent or faster solution speeds compared to existing approaches.     

基于H∞性能的不确定多速率系统鲁棒预测控制

研究含有不确定性的输入多采样率控制系统的鲁棒预测控制问题,提出了基于Hoo性能的鲁棒预测控制算法.该算法采用线性矩阵不等式(LMI)的方法,得出闭环多采样率系统具有H∞性能指标的上界γ,并给出保证闭环系统鲁棒稳定的判据.仿真结果表明了该算法的有效性.