盐酸溶液标定分析结果的不确定度评定

本文列出影响容量分析中盐酸溶液标定的影响因素,依据不确定度的评定规范,对盐酸标定结果进行不确定度评定。     

Beyond Wiener–Askey Expansions: Handling Arbitrary PDFs

In this paper we present a Multi-Element generalized Polynomial Chaos (ME-gPC) method to deal with stochastic inputs with arbitrary probability measures. Based on the decomposition of the random space of the stochastic inputs, we construct numerically a set of orthogonal polynomials with respect to a conditional probability density function (PDF) in each element and subsequently implement generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) locally. Numerical examples show that ME-gPC exhibits both p- and h-convergence for arbitrary probability measures     

Optimizing investment levels for energy conservation: Individual versus social perspective and the role of uncertainty

The decision to invest in energy conservation must be made in the face of uncertainty: future energy prices and the magnitude of energy savings are uncertain. Since once does not know the optimal investment level in advance, one will incur cost penalties due to misoptimization. To analyse the cost penalties it is convenient to focus on the ratio of the life cycle costs that one pays and the life cycle costs one would have paid with an optimal investment level. Two models are used to evaluate this ratio: a model for conductive heat flow through a layer of insulation, and an exponential curve fit to a large number of residential energy conservation cost data. Plotting the life cycle cost ratio versus the ration of actual and guessed energy expenditures shows the effect both of price uncertainties and of uncertainties in the performance of conservation measures. The graph can also be used to evaluate the cost to society due to the mismatch between individual and social perspectives. The curve turns out to have a broad optimum, and penalties due to misoptimization are fairly small in most cases. With these models one can also calculate the long-term price elasticity of energy demand for rational consumers. It turns out to be -0.5 in the insulation model and -1.0 in the exponential model.     

Near optimal solutions to least-squares problems with stochastic uncertainty

In this paper, we consider least-squares (LS) problems where the regression data is affected by parametric stochastic uncertainty. In this setting, we study the problem of minimizing the expected value with respect to the uncertainty of the LS residual. For general nonlinear dependence of the data on the uncertain parameters, determining an exact solution to this problem is known to be computationally prohibitive. Here, we follow a probabilistic approach, and determine a probable near optimal solution by minimizing the empirical mean of the residual. Finite sample convergence of the proposed method is assessed using statistical learning methods. In particular, we prove that if one constructs the empirical approximation of the mean using a finite number N of samples, then the minimizer of this empirical approximation is, with high probability, an ε-suboptimal solution for the original problem. Moreover, this approximate solution can be efficiently determined numerically by a standard recursive algorithm. Comparisons with gradient algorithms for stochastic optimization are also discussed in the paper and several numerical examples illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Physics-guided logistic classification for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining

This paper describes a physics-guided logistic classification method for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining. Tool life is modeled using a classification method since the exact tool life cannot be measured in a typical production environment where tool wear can only be directly measured when the tool is replaced. In this study, laboratory tool wear experiments are used to simulate tool wear data normally collected during part production. Two states are defined: tool not worn (class 0) and tool worn (class 1). The non-linear reduction in tool life with cutting speed is modeled by applying a logarithmic transformation to the inputs for the logistic classification model. A method for interpretability of the logistic model coefficients is provided by comparison with the empirical Taylor tool life model. The method is validated using tool wear experiments for milling. Results show that the physics-guided logistic classification method can predict tool life using limited datasets. A method for pre-process optimization of machining parameters using a probabilistic machining cost model is presented. The proposed method offers a robust and practical approach to tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in a production environment.     

Measuring and analyzing agents’ uncertainty in argumentation-based negotiation dialogue games

Nowadays, multiagent systems have become a widely used technology in everyday life, and many authors have adopted the view of communication or interaction between agents as a joint activity regulated by means of dialogue games. Dialogue games are a set of communication rules that agents can combine in their complex interactions. In these games, uncertainty is an important problem that each agent faces when making decisions, especially in the absence of enough information. This paper focuses on the uncertainty in a particular type of dialogue games, namely argumentation-based negotiation. There exist several proposals on this type of dialogue games in the literature, and most of them are concerned with proposing protocols to show how agents can communicate with each other, and how arguments and offers can be generated, evaluated and exchanged. Nevertheless, none of them is directly targeting the agents’ uncertainty about the exchanged arguments and how this uncertainty could be measured at each dialogue step to assist those agents make better decisions. The aim of this paper is to tackle this problem by defining a new set of uncertainty measures in negotiation dialogue games from an external agent’s point of view. In particular, we introduce two types of uncertainty: Type I and Type II. Type I is about the uncertainty index of playing the right move. For this, we use Shannon entropy to measure: (i) the uncertainty index of the agent that he is selecting the right move at each dialogue step; and (ii) the uncertainty index of participating agents in the negotiation about the whole dialogue. This is done in two different ways; the first is by taking the average of the uncertainty index of all moves, and the second is by determining all possible dialogues and applying the general formula of Shannon entropy. Type II is about the uncertainty degree of the agent that the move will be accepted by the addressee. In this context, we introduce a new classification for the arguments based on their certainty to be accepted by the addressee.     

Aligning principal and agent’s incentives: A principal–agent perspective of social networking sites

The viability of networked communities depends on the creation and disclosure of user-generated content and the frequency of user visitation (Facebook 10-K Annual Report, 2012). However, little is known about how to align the interests of user and social networking sites. In this study, we draw upon the principal-agent perspective to extend Pavlou et al.’s uncertainty mitigation model of online exchange relationships (2007) and propose an empirically tested model for aligning the incentives of the principal (user) and the agent (service provider). As suggested by Pavlou et al., we incorporated a multi-dimensional measure of trust: trust of provider and trust of members. The proposed model is empirically tested with survey data from 305 adults aged 20-55. The results support our model, delineating how real individuals with bounded rationality actually make decision about information disclosure under uncertainty in the social networking site context. There is show little to no relationship between online privacy concerns and information disclosure on online social network sites. Perceived benefits provide the linkage between the incentives of principal (user) and agent (provider) while usage intensity demonstrated the most significant impact on information disclosure. We argue that the phenomenon may be explained through Communication Privacy Management Theory. The present study enhances our understanding of agency theory and human judgment theory in the context of social media. Practical implications for understanding and facilitating online social exchange relationships are also discussed.     

Emissions control policies under uncertainty and rational learning in a linear-state dynamic model

We compare the use of price-based policies or taxes, and quantity-based policies or quotas, for controlling emissions in a dynamic setup when the regulator faces two sources of uncertainty: (i) market-related uncertainty; and (ii) ecological uncertainty. We assume that the regulator is a rational Bayesian learner and the regulator and firms have asymmetric information. In our model the structure of Bayesian learning is general. Our results suggest that the expected level of emissions is the same under taxes and quotas. However, the comparison of the total benefits related to these policies suggests that taxes dominate quotas, that is, they provide a higher social welfare. Even though taxes have some benefits over quotas, neither learning nor ecological uncertainty affect the choice of policy, i.e., the only factor having such an impact is uncertainty in the instantaneous net emissions benefits (market-related uncertainty). Besides, the more volatile is this uncertainty, the more benefits of taxes over quotas. Ecological uncertainty leads to a difference between the emissions rule under the informed and the rational learning assumptions. However, the direction of this difference depends on the beliefs bias with regard to ecological uncertainty. We also find that a change in the regulator’s beliefs toward more optimistic views will increase the emissions.     

Rescheduling policies for large-scale task allocation of autonomous straddle carriers under uncertainty at automated container terminals

This paper investigates replanning strategies for container-transportation task allocation of autonomous Straddle Carriers (SC) at automated container terminals. The strategies address the problem of large-scale scheduling in the context of uncertainty (especially uncertainty associated with unexpected events such as the arrival of a new task). Two rescheduling policies–Rescheduling New arrival Jobs (RNJ) policy and Rescheduling Combination of new and unexecuted Jobs (RCJ) policy–are presented and compared for long-term Autonomous SC Scheduling (ASCS) under the uncertainty of new job arrival. The long-term performance of the two rescheduling policies is evaluated using a multi-objective cost function (i.e., the sum of the costs of SC travelling, SC waiting, and delay of finishing high-priority jobs). This evaluation is conducted based on two different ASCS solving algorithms–an exact algorithm (i.e., branch-and-bound with column generation (BBCG) algorithm) and an approximate algorithm (i.e., auction algorithm)–to get the schedule of each short-term planning for the policy. Based on the map of an actual fully-automated container terminal, simulation and comparative results demonstrate the quality advantage of the RCJ policy compared with the RNJ policy for task allocation of autonomous straddle carriers under uncertainty. Long-term testing results also show that although the auction algorithm is much more efficient than the BBCG algorithm for practical applications, it is not effective enough, even when employed by the superior RCJ policy, to achieve high-quality scheduling of autonomous SCs at the container terminals.