Assessing the potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey

To meet Turkey’s growing energy demand, the installed electric power capacity of 27.8 GW in 2001 has to be doubled by 2010 and increased fourfold by 2020. The difference between Turkey’s total primary energy supply (TPES) of from its own sources and total final consumption (TFC) is projected grow from 1 quad (1.06–2.06) in 1999 to 5.71 quads (2.79–8.5) in 2020 (1 QUAD=293.071 TWh). Turkey’s limited amount of fossil fuels has a present average ratio of proved reserves of 97.38 quads to production rate of 3.2 quads yr⁻¹ of about 30 years. Turkey’s reliance on fossil fuel-based energy systems to meet the growing demand is most likely to exacerbate the issues of energy insecurity, national environmental degradation, and global climate change in increasing proportions. Economically-feasible renewable energy potential in Turkey is estimated at a total of ca. 1.69 quads yr⁻¹ (495.4 TWh yr⁻¹) with the potential for 0.67 quads yr⁻¹ (196.7 TWh yr⁻¹) of biomass energy, 0.42 quads yr⁻¹ (124 TWh yr⁻¹) of hydropower, 0.35 quads yr⁻¹ (102.3 TWh yr⁻¹) of solar energy, 0.17 quads yr⁻¹ (50 TWh yr⁻¹) of wind energy, and 0.08 quads yr⁻¹ (22.4 TWh yr⁻¹) of geothermal energy. Pursuit and implementation of sustainability-based energy policy could provide about 90 and 35% of Turkey’s total energy supply and consumption projected in 2010, respectively. Utilization of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation would necessitate about 23.2 Mha (29.8%) of Turkey’s land resources.     

基于回归方法的移动通信话务量预测

针对移动通信话务量与市场用户和相应资费政策相关的特点，采用回归预测方法，建立了基于市场用户数及每用户收入的话务量预测模型，并对模型进行了经济学意义上的检验。根据此模型，对话务量进行了初步的预测分析。     

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以天然气为能源，用燃气机代替电动机驱动压缩机并充分利用发动机废热、工业余热以及低品位环境热量的采暖、空调装置——燃气压缩式热泵近年来发展迅速。美国燃气设备的总装机容量已达到1．2GW，日本燃气机热泵占全部燃气制冷设备的29％，总装机容量大约1GW，燃气机热泵在英国、法国、德国、瑞士等都得到了较快的发展与应用。中研究了以天然气为驱动能源的压缩式热泵的特点及能量利用率，分析并测试了该系统的运行特性及交工况特性，进行了各种工况及转速下的实验研究。结果表明，该系统具有较好的部分负荷特性、一次能源利用率及交工况特性，为一种绿色高效的供热空调系统。     

常减压蒸馏装置换热网络的节能优化

利用夹点技术理论对耗能严重的某炼油厂常减压蒸馏装置进行用能诊断分析;并结合热力学原理得到两种优化换热网络,节能效果显著。     

Computer analysis,design and simulation of horizontal ground heat exchangers

This paper presents a new computerized procedure for dealing with the design of horizontal ground heat exchangers (HGHE). The computer program is based on the transient model of coupled nonlinear partial differential equations governing heat and mass flow in soils. The model is two-dimensional and delineates the operation of ground heat storage with the HGHE and such phenomena as freezing/thawing and drying/rewetting of soil moisture. Comprehensive climatological data, such as ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind velocity, rainfall, snowfall, snow characterstics, and water vapour pressure is used to simulate conditions at the ground surface over any required length of time. The package can be applied to any geographical location by changing climatic and soil data input. The designer has the possibility of selecting any of 12 types of soils from sand to clay, 12 commercial heat pumps, nine different configurations of the HGHE, 16 plastic pipes for ground coils, and 13 ground coil fluids. The program, however, does not calculate the length of the HGHE but it evaluates the thermodynamic performance of a ground heat pump system and provides comprehensive data on thermal and hydraulic conditions in ground heat storage. The length of the ground heat exchanger is obtained from a line source theory model or from site dimensions and pipe spacing. Computed results for ground heat exchanger operation correlate fairly well with experimental data. Simulation of temperature and moisture content in the ground for natural conditions (no heat extraction/deposition) showed a fair agreement with field data. The entire computer program is user-friendly, interactive, menu-driven, and written in FORTRAN 77.     

短周期超晶格AlP／GaP能带结构的转变及其带间的光跃迁

介绍了间接跃迁的半导体ＡｌＰ与ＧａＰ形成的超晶格，由于零折叠效应，实现了能带由间接带隙向直接带隙的转变，从而增加了带间的光跃迁几率，并推导了该几率的表达式。     

Wave propagation in two-phase flow of magnetic fluid under a nonuniform magnetic field

The effect of nonuniform magnetic field on the linear and nonlinear wave propagation phenomena in two-phase pipe flow of magnetic fluid is investigated theoretically to realize the effective energy conversion system using boiling two-phase flow of magnetic fluid. Firstly, the governing equations of two-phase flow based on the unsteady thermal nonequilibrium two-fluid model are presented and the linear void wave propagation phenomena in boiling two-phase flow are numerically analyzed by using the finite volume method. Next, the nonlinear pressure wave propagation in gas-liquid two-phase flow is numerically analyzed by using the finite different method. According to these theoretical studies on the wave propagation phenomena in two-phase flow of magnetic fluid, it seems to be a reasonable proposal that the precise control of the wave propagation in two-phase flow is possible by effective use of the magnetic force.     

预测水驱油田开发动态的一种方法

水驱曲线法和数学模型法都是油藏工程中的重要方法，前者主要用于在一定的经济含水条件下预测水驱油田的可采储量和采收率，后者主要用于预测不同类型油田的产量、累积产量和一定经济极限产量下的可采储量。然而，前者与时间序列无关，后者与含水率序列无关，都有局限性。提出丙型水驱曲线公式与ＨＣＺ数学模型公式联解预测法，不但可以预测水驱油田产量、累积产量、含水率随时间的变化，还可预测可采储量、可动油储量和水驱波及体积系数的变化。图３表１参１２（陈志宏摘）     

制冷系统的节能优化运行

本文通过对制冷系统耗电诸多因素的初步分析 ,采用正交试验、回归计算等手段 ,得出系统耗电与主要因素的函数关系 ,以便通过优化计算迅速找出最佳运行参数 ,指导操作 ,从而达到节能是目的。     

Ion irradiation—induced structure damage to botanic samples using the ion transmission energy spectrum

1 INTRODUCTIONThe new aPplications of low energy heavy ion beam in irradi4ted botanical materialswere studied in recellt yeaxs. The beaminduced mutation effect on crop seeds has causedthe attention of physicist and biologists.[1l:] FOr examPle, 1ow energy ions can induceremarkable mutation to rice seeds.[3] There are many special phenomena when heavyions bombard botanic sW1e due to its special structure. Some studies showed that tllepenetration depths of some ions were far larger than t…