保险公司市场风险经济资本度量研究

经济资本(EC)是在既定期间和置信水平下,公司根据实际承担的风险计算的用以吸收非预期损失的资本额度,目前市场风险是整体经济资本测算体系中最为突出的风险.根据当前保险运营与资产投资的比例特征,同时对资产端与负债端建立市场风险投资模型,采用嵌套随机模拟方法进行两阶段情景生成,度量未来一年内不同风险测度下的市场风险经济资本需求,并对比不同情景数量下的测算稳定性.结果证明:随着内部或外部情景模拟次数的增加,市场风险经济资本测算结果对于极端风险的预测趋于稳定,在内外部情景数量乘积相同时运算时间基本一致.当内外部两阶段情景生成参数差异较大的情形下,应适当增加情景生成数量,以确保对于极端风险预测的准确性.     

Optimal pair-trading strategy over long/short/square positions—empirical study

Suzuki [Automatica, 2016, 67, 33–45] solves the optimal, finitely iterative, three-regime switching problem for investing in a mean-reverting asset that follows an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck price process and find explicit solutions. The remarkable feature of this model is that the investor can explicitly take either a long, short or square position and can switch the position, with transaction costs, during the investment period. We run empirical simulations of such multiple-regime switching models. There are very few such attempts in the existing literature because it is difficult to find, first, an explicit solution to the problem and second, appropriate financial assets that follow the artificial stochastic process required by the mathematical model. According to the Monte Carlo simulations of the optimal pair-trading strategy, the mean daily Sharp ratio is more than 2.3, whereas the mean Sharp ratio for the historical simulation of the ‘stub’ pairs (combinations of parent/subsidiary companies) is 0.6886. We believe that the results obtained from performing the empirical simulations are remarkable and consider that the optimal switching strategy of the rigorous mathematical model is applicable to businesses in the real world. For the reference many pseudo-program codes are added, which can help to replicate the optimal trading strategies.     

Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.     

Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models

The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.     

人工挖孔桩半桩支护方案可行性分析

本文以实际工程深基坑工程为研究对象,分别对桩基进行数值计算和数值模拟,通过对结果进行对比可以看出,人工挖孔桩采用半桩基是可行的。     

基于电子商务平台的农产品营销模式研究——以重庆为例

随着互联网普及程度越来越高,农产品电子商务作为一种新型营销方式在现代营销中具有重要的作用。文章首先对电子商务相关概念和基础理论进行概述,明确了电子商务的重要性。其次在对重庆市农产品电子商务营销现状及问题分析的基础上,对目前重庆市现有的3种电子商务营销模式,即为电子市场交易模式、网络中介模式、网络虚拟社区模式进行深入分析。最后,从建立健全农产品电子商务相关法律和制度、大力培养农产品电子商务专业人才、开展多种形式的农产品电子营销模式,实施农牧产品与农商旅联动营销战略等几方面提出促进重庆市电子商务发展的策略。     

多层介质频率选择表面的等效电路分析方法

基于数值仿真计算和微波网络理论，提出了一种多层介质中频率选择表面（FSS）等效电路的分析方法。该方法物理过程直观，计算量小，适用于二维任意形状FSS等效电路的精确求解。以方形贴片型FSS为例验证了等效电路模型的准确性，并分析了多层介质对其等效电路参数的影响规律。最后，基于滤波器理论与FSS等效电路模型设计了双层带通型FSS，计算结果表明全波仿真结果与理论计算结果基本一致，为多层FSS的综合设计提供了一种精确设计方法。     

矿井通风三维可视化系统及优化

系统建立了三维仿真框架,建立了三维空间属性模型和非空间属性模型,分别对空间数据和非空间数据进行储存和管理。并建立了Hardy-Cross迭代模型和离散反馈型神经网络模型优化通风网络模型。并以C#语言来实现系统的功能。     

Exploring the impact of the physical conditions of mannequin displays on mental simulation: An embodied cognition theory perspective

This study examines how mannequins' physical conditions of display height and distance are related to consumers’ shopping motivations in generating mental simulation resulting in purchase intention. A 2 × 2 x 2 between-subjects lab experiment (n = 249) was conducted to address this question. The results reveal a significant three-way interaction effect of display height, distance, and shopping motivation. Specifically, it is found that for those with a dominant hedonic shopping motivation, a mannequin displayed up high generates greater mental simulation than one displayed down low, but for those with a dominant utilitarian shopping motivation, a mannequin displayed high and close to consumers generates greater mental simulation than one displayed low and close to them. This study also reveals that mental simulation mediates the influence of the interaction effect of “display height x distance,” moderated by shopping motivation, on purchase intention. Important theoretical and practical implications for retail managers are discussed.     

基于触觉视角的虚拟试穿、买家展示对消费者冲动性购买意愿的影响

从虚拟触觉的视角，构建了虚拟试穿、买家展示与消费者冲动性购买意愿关系的理论模型。并基于结构方程的方法对理论模型进行了验证。验证结果表明，虚拟试穿和买家展示对消费者冲动性购买意愿既有直接作用又有间接作用，虚拟触觉在两者对冲动购买意愿的间接作用中充当了中介作用。