Safety modeling for two‐way left‐turn lanes and a procedure to identify two‐way left‐turn lane segments with safety concerns

In the past, two‐way left‐turn lane (TWLTL) median treatments have been frequently used in Florida to inexpensively improve traffic and safety performances. In order to identify factors that may have significant impacts on safety operations in TWLTL sections and to identify TWLTL locations that present existing and future safety concerns, a research project was carried out and results are summarized in the paper. In the research, a three‐year crash history database with crashes and section characteristics from a total of 1688 TWLTL sections all over Florida was developed and used. A negative binomial regression model was developed to determine the statistical relationship between the number of crashes per mile per year and several variables such as traffic volume, access density, posted speed, and number of lanes. In regard to the methodology, in order to identify locations with safety concerns, several steps are needed: development of real crash data distribution, determination of statistical distribution models that better represent the actual crash data, determination of percentile values for the average number of crashes, estimation of crash rates for sections with the same characteristics, estimation of critical values for the variables corresponding to the percentile values for average number of crashes, calculation of tables of critical average annual daily traffic values, and generation of a list of TWLTL locations with critical safety concerns. Results presented in the paper have been used in real applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地铁车站结构随机振动响应分析

基于地震反应的随机非确定性,运用基于概率统计方法的随机振动理论进行结构抗震分析,考察结构的动力可靠度,是一种合理的设计方法。运用虚拟激励法对青岛地铁五四广场站进行随机振动分析,避免了传统方法计算的冗繁,得到了具有统计意义的结构动力响应。考虑x向功率谱输入时,弯矩分布较为均匀;地铁结构体型变化较大的部位剪力明显增大;柱底剪力较小,边跨柱剪力小于中跨柱底剪力。考虑y向功率谱函数输入时,沿梁轴向剪力值逐渐增大,柱底剪力明显大于x向输入时的柱底剪力,边跨柱柱底剪力大于中跨柱底剪力。所得结论为地铁站这一复杂结构形式进行基于可靠度理论的设计提供了依据,可以作为同类设计的参考指导。     

The performance of route modification and demand stabilization strategies in stochastic vehicle routing

A key concern in managing vehicle routing operations under stochastic demands is whether, on the basis of travel distance, route modification yields materially greater logistical efficiency than fixed routes. This research uses statistical calibration as the primary technique to develop a robust and tractable model for estimating this difference in logistical efficiency. Based on features such as the models predictive accuracy and generalizability, it constitutes a substantive improvement over existing models. The present study also expands the range of predictive models relevant to vehicle routing under stochastic demands with models to estimate the transportation and inventory effects of persuading customers to stabilize their ordering patterns.     

Physical–biological coupling in spore dispersal of kelp forest macroalgae

The physical–biological linkages controlling the dispersal of spores produced by macroalgae that reside in kelp forests are complicated and laced with feedbacks. Here we discuss the fundamental elements of these interactions. Biological considerations include spore swimming and sinking speeds, their periods of viability in the plankton, and the height of spore release above the seafloor, which together determine the durations over which spores can be swept by horizontal currents before they contact the seafloor. Morphologies and material properties of canopy forming kelps may also influence the drag exerted on passing waters by the kelps, the plants' ability to persist in the face of rapid flows, and thereby the degree to which impinging currents are redirected around, or slowed within, kelp forests. Macroalgal life histories, and the size of spore sources as controlled by the dimensions of kelp forests and the density and fecundity of individuals within them, influence effective dispersal distances as well. Physical considerations encompass the mean speed, direction, and timescales of variability of currents relative to spore suspension times, the interaction of surface gravity waves with currents in producing turbulence in the benthic boundary layer, wind-driven surface mixing, water stratification, and shoreline bathymetry and substratum roughness, all of which can affect the interplay of vertical and horizontal transport of macroalgal spores. Intricate within-forest processes may induce attenuation of current speeds and consequent reductions in seabed shear, along with simultaneous production of small-scale turbulence in kelp wakes. Slower mean currents and smaller eddy scales in turn may attenuate vertical mixing within forests, thus extending spore suspension times. Further complexities likely arise due to changes in the relative rates of horizontal and vertical dispersion, modifications to the overall profiles of vertical mixing, and the creation of fine-scale secondary flows around kelp individuals and substratum features. Under conditions of more rapid currents, submergence of the surface canopy and the establishment of skimming flows at the canopy–fluid interface may introduce additional coherent flow structures that alter rates of fluid exchange to and from the forest. Many of these coupled physical–biological processes are just beginning to be examined in a rigorous fashion in kelp forests, but their potential importance is clear.     

困难山区铁路主要技术标准与工程投资关系研究

铁路主要技术标准与工程投资有着十分密切的关系,通过深入探讨铁路主要技术标准,从统计学的角度研究铁路主要技术标准与工程投资的关系,建立工程投资关于铁路主要技术标准的多元非线性回归模型。并结合实际算例说明回归模型的良好的拟合度,研究各项主要技术标准之间的相关性,分析各项主要技术标准对工程投资的影响趋势与影响程度,从而在实际的应用中能够有的放矢地关注关键的技术标准以及科学合理地决策出各项主要技术标准,以达到优化线路设计、节约工程投资的目的。     

土工液塑限试验中的新方法应用与比较

针对公路与水电土工试验规程中所采用的作图法确定液塑限值而带来的诸多不便,采用数学解析法、最小二乘法、回归分析法计算液塑限试验数据,并将其编制成QBASIC程序上机处理,由此确定出的液限、塑限值较传统方法方便、快捷、准确。同时对公路与水电土工试验规程中所采用的不同圆锥下沉深度而计算出的液塑限值进行了比较。     

基于模糊线性回归分析的编组站运营指标预测方法

运用模糊线性回归分析方法,建立编组站运营指标的模糊预测模型。利用该模型,对向塘西编组站中时进行了预测。在对中时影响因素分析的基础上,选取办理车数、有调中转车数、无调中转车数、折角车流量、货物列车到发列数和到发均衡程度等6个影响因素,结合车站近几年相关历史数据,确定了中时与6个影响因素之间的模糊函数关系。依据此函数关系对未来时期的中时进行了预测,预测结果表明所提出的运营指标预测方法有较好的适用性。     

双线铁路下承式连续梁拱组合桥列车一桥梁时变系统空间振动随机分析

在列车一桥梁时变系统横向振动能量随机分析理论的基础上，采用26个自由度的列车空间振动模型，以空间梁单元模拟桥梁结构，以普通空间梁元即12自由度的空间梁元来模拟拱及吊杆结构，建立了双线铁路下承式连续梁拱组合式桥列车一桥梁时变系统空间振动分析模型，分别以构架人工蛇行波及前苏联规律性的竖向不平顺函数为横向及竖向激振源，进行双线铁路下承式连续梁拱组合式桥列车一桥梁时变系统空间振动响应分析。计算了列车以不同车速通过桥梁的空间振动响应，所得结果可供设计参考。     

随机响应约束下的桁架结构拓扑优化

研究随机响应约束下的桁架结构拓扑优化问题具有重要的工程应用前景.文章采用自适应遗传算法(AGA)求解了随机响应约束下的桁架结构拓扑优化问题.通过引入海明距离生成高质量的初始种群、采用自适应的交叉和变异算子以及对适应度函数进行线性标定这三个步骤改进了遗传算法的搜索效率以及收敛性.在拓扑优化列式中考虑杆件以及各自由度的拓扑变量以精确地模拟优化过程中杆件和结点的删除.建立了随机载荷作用下结构均方响应的表达式,并以此作为拓扑优化问题的约束条件.另外,提出了一些启发式算法来引导杆件和结点的删除.最后,通过对随机激励下的二维桁架以及三维桁架进行拓扑优化计算,证明了本文方法的实用性和有效性.     

桥梁结构随机振动分析

桥梁结构的随机振动有别于其他结构。由于车辆在桥上的位置是不断变化的,因此,即使作为输入的随机激励是平稳随机过程,车桥的动力响应也超出平稳随机过程的范围,即质量在梁上不断的运动,使系统运动方程组成为一个时变系数的二阶微分方程组,一般只能采用逐步积分的数值方法,也可以用频域法,假定其频率响应函数在瞬间不随时间变化,近似的处理这种时变性问题。