基于虚拟样机技术的机车车辆钢弹簧疲劳寿命研究

机车车辆在轨道上运行时,线路的不平顺及车轮的变形会使悬挂装置受到各种有害冲击。断裂和应力松弛是机车车辆钢弹簧最常见的失效形式,有研究证明弹簧断裂绝大部分都是因疲劳引起的。发生松弛失效的弹簧没有及时更换,会给列车的安全运行埋下隐患,引发严重的行车事故。运用多体动力学软件SIMPACK建立整车模型．提取弹簧随机载荷谱,通过疲劳分析软件FE—Safe对某电力机车二系悬挂钢弹簧进行随机疲劳寿命分析,对轨道车辆钢弹簧寿命预测及确定更换周期具有一定的工程实用价值。     

高铁无柱雨棚工程造价估算与敏感性分析

影响高铁客运站无柱雨棚结构工程造价的因素很多,在收集已建高铁客运站无柱雨棚结构工程造价数据的基础上,针对侧式客站无柱雨棚结构工程造价选取了相应的几个主要影响变量。根据多元回归分析理论,分别建立了多元逐步线性回归模型和二次响应曲面模型,通过拟合模型的对比分析与实例验证,提出二次响应曲面模型在高铁侧式站无柱雨棚结构工程造价估算上的应用前景。并在此基础上,应用二次响应曲面模型研究得出各主要敏感因素对无柱雨棚结构工程造价的敏感程度。从投资角度为高铁侧式站无柱雨棚结构体系设计和建设提供了优化方向。     

用Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害敏感性区划图的方法研究

在GIS环境下应用Logistics回归模型编制地质灾害区划图。针对网格的生成、致灾因子的选择、不重合边界等问题,运用GIS的空间分析功能和SPSS的统计功能,消除了这些问题对滑坡灾害区划图的准确度的影响。结合贵州省的实际,根据历史灾害的分布情况,比较不同方法编制的滑坡灾害敏感性区划图,确定最优编制方法。对基于Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害敏感性区划图提出若干指导性建议,丰富和完善了Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害区划图方法体系。     

基于AR模型的并靠两船相对运动预报研究

根据两船相对运动的特点,利用两船模相对运动的测量数据,运用基于自回归模型的时间序列分析法,建立了两船相对运动的数学模型,并给出了运动姿态的预报值.通过本方法的研究,可以得到满意的相对运动预报精度,为两船补给波浪、补偿装置的开发打下了理论基础.     

基于信令数据的出行强度影响因素分析模型

为探究城市交通出行强度影响因素及不同因素的影响程度，本文从土地利用与交通基础设施建设两方面出发，分析包括土地利用混合指数，职住混合率熵指数，公共交通站点 500 m覆盖率，路网可达性等17个指标与出行强度的相关关系；基于相关系数和拟合优度分析，提取7个与出行强度强相关指标，基于所识别指标构建北京市中心城区出行强度多元回归模型.模型结果表明，职住混合率熵指数对出行强度的影响最为显著，公共交通站点覆盖率对出行强度的影响比道路网密度和可达性更为明显.此外，给出单一土地利用/交通基础设施指标对出行强度拟合结果的离群特征分析方法，用于评估不同区域基础设施供给与交通出行需求之间的平衡关系.     

Real-time trip purpose prediction using online location-based search and discovery services

The use of smartphone technology is increasingly considered a state-of-the-art practice in travel data collection. Researchers have investigated various methods to automatically predict trip characteristics based upon locational and other smartphone sensing data. Of the trip characteristics being studied, trip purpose prediction has received relatively less attention. This research develops trip purpose prediction models based upon online location-based search and discovery services (specifically, Google Places API) and a limited set of trip data that are usually available upon the completion of the trip. The models have the potential to be integrated with smartphone technology to produce real-time trip purpose prediction. We use a recent, large-scale travel behavior survey that is augmented by downloaded Google Places information on each trip destination to develop and validate the models. Two statistical and machine learning prediction approaches are used, including nested logit and random forest methods. Both sets of models show that Google Places information is a useful predictor of trip purpose in situations where activity- and person-related information is uncollectable, missing, or unreliable. Even when activity- and person-related information is available, incorporating Google Places information provides incremental improvements in trip purpose prediction.     

The effects of planned and unplanned transfers on public transport users' perception of transfer routes

Many authorities are investing in new infrastructure to improve the quality of public transport (PT) services in the hope to increase mode switch from cars. The goal is to provide users with an integrated multimodal PT network by facilitating transfers. There exists a lack in the clarity of the attributes which defines a planned transfer and the effects of planned transfers on users' willingness to use routes with transfers. The present study provides approximate effects of ‘planned’ and ‘unplanned’ transfers on PT users' decisions to use transfer routes. The study focuses on two attributes of ‘planned’ transfers, integrated physical connection of transfers and information integration. A user preference survey was undertaken in Auckland, New Zealand. Analysis of the results shows that physical integration is more important than information integration for current PT users. Results also suggest that information integration has a greater influence on users of transfer services which are more closely aligned to being ‘unplanned’.     

圆形隧道施工对不同深度地层沉降影响的模型试验研究

为了预测圆形隧道施工引起地表以下不同埋深地层沉降特征,首先,通过理论推导不同地层最大沉降位移与沉降槽宽度系数的函数关系;然后,建立包括试验台架、地层模型、圆形隧道开挖模型以及测量地层变形装置的平面应变模型试验系统。通过理论解析和模型试验可知:1)地表以下地层的最大沉降位移与沉降槽宽度系数成反比;2)不同深度地层的沉降位移随着地层埋深的增加而增大,且地表以下地层沉降槽曲线仍然符合正态分布;3)通过对模型试验数据进行回归分析,得到黏土地表以下不同深度地层沉降槽宽度系数的计算公式,从而为预测圆形隧道施工地表以下不同深度地层竖向位移提供了一种可靠的计算方法。     

A new model for temporal–spatial stochastic analysis of vehicle–track coupled systems

The vehicle–track coupled system has a random nature in the time–space domain. This paper proposes a computational model to analyse the temporal–spatial stochastic vibrations of vehicle–track systems, where the vehicle–track system is divided into a vehicle subsystem, track subsystem, and interfacial subsystem between the wheel and rail. In this model, the time-varying randomicity of dynamical parameters of the vehicle system, correlation, and randomness of the track structural parameters in the time–space joint dimensions, and randomness of the track random irregularities are considered. A probability dimension-reduction method was used to randomly combine different random variables. Furthermore, the probability density evolution method was applied to solve the delivery problem of probabilities between excitation inputs and response outputs. The temporal–spatial stochastic vibrations of the vehicle–track system with different coefficients of variation were studied, in which we assumed that the dynamic parameters obeyed the normal distribution, and the stochastic simulation method of the track random irregularities is probed into. The calculated results from this model are consistent with the actual measured results and physical conceptions. Thus, the temporal–spatial stochastic evolutionary mechanism can be explored, and the limits of dynamic indices can be formulated by using this developed model.