基于超总体模型的设计效应分解

本文基于超总体模型研究抽样调查中设计效应的计算问题。首先以随机效应模型为基础，明确了简单随机、二阶段、不等概率和分层抽样对应的超总体模型，进而通过所给模型推导出分层、类集、加权单因素设计效应的计算公式和多因素组合的设计效应计算公式并给出了对应估计量，公式表明：多因素同时存在的组合设计效应等于对应单因素设计效应的乘积。最后，对设计效应的理论值、估计值和真实值之间的关系进行了蒙特卡洛仿真，并利用相对偏倚、相对均方误进行了评价。本文的研究，对复杂抽样设计中正确计算、使用设计效应具有指导意义。     

A fistful of euros: Is the German one‐euro job workfare scheme effective for participants?

Hohmeyer K, Wolff J. A fistful of euros: is the German one‐euro job workfare scheme effective for participants? Welfare reforms have constituted a major policy issue in many OECD countries in recent decades. In Germany, a major reform in 2005 emphasised the activation of welfare recipients and introduced a workfare programme –‘One‐Euro Jobs’– on a large scale. In the present study, the impact of one‐euro jobs on the employment prospects of different groups of participants was estimated. The analysis was conducted on a large sample of welfare recipients using propensity score matching. The sample of one‐euro job participants and other welfare recipients was drawn from administrative records comprising all those who started their participation in the programme in early 2005. Our results showed that participation slightly improved the medium‐term employment prospects for women but not for men. Participation reduced the employment rate of participants younger than 25 years but raised it for some of the older participant groups. In conclusion, one‐euro jobs are effective for participants who have been jobless for several years but ineffective for participants who were recently employed.     

《雷雨》人物对话研究

戏剧《雷雨》中有大量的人物对话,在刻画人物性格,表现人物内心世界,推进戏剧冲突方面起到了关键作用。文章主要以周萍为主线,考察他同繁漪、鲁侍萍的对话,对戏中人物对话进行审美分析。     

宗教、邪教与文化的挤占效应分析

从历史经验看,中国古代传统主流文化存在"信仰缺乏症",带有宗教特征的巫文化与主流文化结合,部分地满足了人们的宗教信仰需求,表现出对传统主流文化的占位效应。在当下中国,由于大量具有宗教情结人口的存在,宗教信仰作为一项次好的选择,能够发挥对邪教的文化挤出效应。     

An Additive–Multiplicative Restricted Mean Residual Life Model

The mean residual life measures the expected remaining life of a subject who has survived up to a particular time. When survival time distribution is highly skewed or heavy tailed, the restricted mean residual life must be considered. In this paper, we propose an additive–multiplicative restricted mean residual life model to study the association between the restricted mean residual life function and potential regression covariates in the presence of right censoring. This model extends the proportional mean residual life model using an additive model as its covariate dependent baseline. For the suggested model, some covariate effects are allowed to be time‐varying. To estimate the model parameters, martingale estimating equations are developed, and the large sample properties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, to assess the adequacy of the model, we investigate a goodness of fit test that is asymptotically justified. The proposed methodology is evaluated via simulation studies and further applied to a kidney cancer data set collected from a clinical trial.     

内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响研究

从防范和应对的角度研究内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响，有利于促进企业内部审计制度的发展和完善，提高反倾销会计信息证据效力，为我国企业的国际化战略提供有力支持。以2007-2012年间遭受反倾销诉讼的上市公司的数据为样本，检验了内部审计对反倾销会计信息证据效力的影响。实证结果显示：内部审计质量越高，企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据越有效力；内部审计质量一定的情况下，内部控制有效的企业，内部审计与内部控制的互动能够提高反倾销会计信息证据效力。     

Attributing Outcomes to Social Policy Interventions – ‘Gold Standard’ or ‘Fool's Gold’ in Public Policy and Management?

In recent years there has been increased interest in outcome‐based social policy‐making and management. The UK has been in the forefront of this movement but similar movements have been identified internationally. This interest in outcome‐based decision‐making has been given particular impetus through the ‘results’‐based movement in evaluation and performance management since the 1980s, which has increased in scope over time, slowly changing its emphasis from cost reduction and measuring outputs to measuring outcomes. This change has been widely welcomed by policymakers, practitioners and academics. However, there is evidence that the reality is often rather less than the rhetoric. Moreover, the ‘attribution problem’ of attributing changes in outcomes to specific social policies has remained a major issue. The conceptual solution of constructing ‘cause‐and‐effect’ models, imported from the policy evaluation field, has only recently become common for operationalising these models. This article outlines the evolution of interest in outcome‐based social policy‐making up to recent times and the growing realization of the importance of the attribution problem. It then outlines both how the ‘cause‐and‐effect’ policy modelling approach can partially tackle the attribution problem, but also its inherent limitations. Lastly, the article uses several case studies in current UK social policy‐making to demonstrate the potential importance of the reasoning embedded within cause‐and‐effect models but also the dangers in policy‐making which adopts this approach without understanding its conceptual basis or in fields where it is inappropriate, given the current state of our knowledge of social policy systems.     

校企合作构建第二课堂的实施效果分析及评价——基于圣奥班(家具设计专业)毕业生跟踪问卷的调查

南京林业大学与浙江圣奥(木业)集团联合创建的“圣奥班”是校企合作联合培养创新型家具设计工程专业人才的成功平台之一.基于圣奥班毕业生的问卷调查,对学生进班动机与目标定位、比较优势、获得的帮助、专业能力提升,以及今后办班建议等方面内容进行了分析.统计结果表明,学校和企业共同搭建的圣奥班平台对学生创新意识,专业能力、就业竞争力等诸多方面都有显著的提升.     

小学校长服务型领导对教师知识分享行为的影响研究

以山东省248名小学教师为有效样本，探讨了服务型领导、教师同事信任、情感承诺和教师知识分享行为之间的关系。研究结果显示：服务型领导与教师知识分享行为显著相关；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与知识分享行为之间的关系；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与情感承诺之间的关系；情感承诺对服务型领导与知识分享行为关系的中介作用不显著。     

A new confidence interval in errors-in-variables model with known error variance

This paper considers constructing a new confidence interval for the slope parameter in the structural errors-in-variables model with known error variance associated with the regressors. Existing confidence intervals are so severely affected by Gleser–Hwang effect that they are subject to have poor empirical coverage probabilities and unsatisfactory lengths. Moreover, these problems get worse with decreasing reliability ratio which also result in more frequent absence of some existing intervals. To ease these issues, this paper presents a fiducial generalized confidence interval which maintains the correct asymptotic coverage. Simulation results show that this fiducial interval is slightly conservative while often having average length comparable or shorter than the other methods. Finally, we illustrate these confidence intervals with two real data examples, and in the second example some existing intervals do not exist.