Beyond collapse: climate change and causality during the Middle Holocene Climatic Transition, 6400–5000 years before present

The twenty-first century is likely to be characterised by large changes in regional climatic and environmental conditions, with implications for the availability and distribution of key resources such as water and productive land. While the implications of such changes for human societies are potentially profound, the empirical evidence base for understanding human–environment interactions focuses largely on the relatively recent past, during which examples of rapid and severe climate change are lacking. While there are no precise past analogues for twenty-first century climate change, the Middle Holocene Climatic Transition (MHCT), from about 6400–5000?years before present, provides us with an example of a period of large-scale global climatic reorganisation, punctuated by episodes of rapid and severe climate change, at a time when human societies were beginning to resemble those of today. A survey of archaeological and palaeo-environmental data from the northern hemisphere subtropics and other regions provides us with evidence for linked climatic, environmental and societal change during the MHCT. This evidence, the strength of which varies with location, allows us to construct convincing narratives of linked climatic, environmental and societal changes that accommodate a variety of responses and outcomes, and that are much more nuanced than narratives of the proposed climate-induced collapse of individual societies. Such synthetic studies that compare contexts across time and space can help us understand human–environment interactions during times of climatic disruption, while allowing for diverse outcomes and avoiding the pitfalls of climatic determinism.     

Migration Within Mexico: A Data-based Exercise for Secondary Students

Abstract

People have been leaving rural environments and moving into urban environments. By 2007, the most people in the world will live in cities (United Nations 2002). Mexico illustrates this world trend closely. Mexico now publishes data on the Internet that can be used to study the movement of people within the country. A lesson is presented with selected new data connecting regional migration and job opportunities. Students create choropleth maps, analyze patterns, and make generalizations about patterns and processes.     

生态移民国外研究进展

随着环境变化对人类生产生活影响程度的逐渐加深,越来越多的学者投身于对生态难民及其相关领域的研究。本文对生态移民的定义与分类、生态移民的产生原因、生态移民的相关预测与评估、环境变化与移民之间的关联等方面进行了重点综述,并对环境难民的进～步应用进行了展望。提出要扩大生态移民的研究区域、转移生态移民的预测重点、加深关于生态移民影响效益的评估研究、探索更综合严谨的生态移民研究方法以及建立一套适合于生态移民的应对指导体系和可持续发展体系。     

Characteristics of mineral element content of alpine vegetation in permafrost region on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The content characteristics of 16 elements (Al, Ca, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P, Pb, Sr, and Zn) in 23 plant species collected from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau permafrost region were investigated using ICP-OES. Results show that the average contents of Ca, K, Mg, Fe and P were higher than 1,000 mg/kg, those of Al, Na, Zn and Cr ranged between 10–1,000 mg/kg and those of Cu, Li, Pb and Mo were less than 10 mg/kg. The levels of Al, Ca, K, Mg and Na were within the scope of the reported terrestrial plant element content, those of Sr, Fe and Cr were higher than the average of the terrestrial plants and the maximum content of Mn was higher than the upper limit of the reported Mn content. The main character of the element content was of the Ca>K type, however, in terms of Cyperaceae species the element content character was K>Ca type. The contents of Ca, Li, Mg and Sr in Gramineae and Cyperaceae species were higher than those in other species and the contents of Ca, K, Mg, Fe, P, Al and Na in all collected plants were higher than those of other elements. Zn had weak variability with the lowest coefficient (i.e., 7.81%), while other elements had strong variability. The ratio of maximum content to minimum content indicated Ca and K had less change than other elements in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau permafrost region. Element content of alpine vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau permafrost region mainly shows a positive correlation, among which the correlation coefficient between Al and Pb, Al and Fe, Mo and Cr, Pb and Fe, Sr and Li were higher than 0.9, and negative correlation had no statistical significance. The correlation between Al and Fe, Mg, Mn in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau permafrost region were consistent with that reported in Kunlun Mountains.     

粗糙元几何参数的交互作用对床面空气动力学粗糙度的影响

 为了全面地揭示粗糙元的所有几何参数的交互作用对空气动力学粗糙度的影响,利用风洞实验研究了粗糙元高度、密度、高度与间距比、孔隙度和方向比率等几何参数交互作用对空气动力学粗糙度的影响。结果表明,密实和孔隙粗糙元的无量纲空气动力学粗糙度（空气动力学粗糙度度/粗糙元高度）均可表示为粗糙元密度/等效密度的正比例函数,而比例系数反映了粗糙元几何参数交互作用。据此,该研究发展了一个全面反映粗糙元高度h、密度/等效密度λ、高度与行间距比Sp和方向比率AR等几何参数交互作用的空气动力学粗糙度模式:Z0h=-0.0028+0.5403S0.32p·AR-0.07·λ。该模式改进了模拟的精度,扩大了适用范围。     

20世纪末中国迁移人口空间分布格局——基于城市的视角

基于人口普查资料,对20世纪末中国迁移人口在不同行政级别、不同规模城市的分布格局进行分析,并运用探索性空间数据分析技术进一步对地级及以上城市迁移人口的空间分布特征进行研究。结果表明:地级及以上城市在迁移人口流动中占主要地位,其中百万规模级别以上城市在人口迁移中地位尤为显著;县级市间迁移人口规模差异显著,东部地区县级市平均迁移规模要大于西部和中部;省际迁移中城市空间分布大体呈现3个梯状层次;省内迁移中城市空间分布总体表现出极大的相似性,均以各省会城市作为省内迁移人口的第一流入地;不论是省内迁移还是省际迁移,东部沿海地区的珠三角和长三角地区城市群都是迁移人口的高度集聚地。     

那曲站与其相邻野外站气象要素的对比分析

利用1955-2009年西藏那曲气象站(NQ站)和2001-2009年BJ野外气象站(BJ站)的观测资料,对NQ站和BJ站气温、风速的变化特征进行了对比分析。结果表明,BJ站的年平均温度和最低温度均低于NQ站,年平均风速反之;两站(NQ站-BJ站)温度差的增长率依次为最低温度(0.117℃.a-1)>年平均温度(0.034℃.a-1)>最高温度(-0.014℃.a-1),年平均风速为0.076m.s-1.a-1;以青藏铁路正式通车的2006年为界,2001-2005年和2006-2009年分别为人类活动影响较弱期和较强期。人类活动影响较强期与较弱期相比,两站温度差异增加的幅度依次为最低温度(0.512℃)>年平均温度(0.152℃)>最高温度(-0.025℃),年平均风速为-0.198m.s-1。     

加密自动站资料在强对流天气分析预报中的应用

利用常规分析资料、雷达产品和太原地面加密自动站资料,对2008年6月28日出现在太原地区的一次强对流天气过程进行了分析,结果发现:①高空冷涡和中低空暖湿气团配置为此次强对流天气提供了有利的环流背景条件。②雷达回波的形状、结构、VIL均显示出强对流特征,速度辐合区与地面中尺度辐合线相对应,垂直方向存在强烈的风切变。③逐小时变温场显示出冷空气入侵路径、强度,负变温中心未来成为强对流天气区。④地面中尺度辐合线是强对流发生的触发机制,逐小时变压场的负中心与随后出现的灾害性天气区有效对应。⑤对流发生前,单站气象要素出现显著的不连续变化,气压和湿度呈同位相变化,与气温变化则反位相,3者在对流发生前1h同步出现谷(峰)值,灾害天气出现在之后的要素陡升(降)时段内。     

南疆一次强沙尘暴前后塔中近地面各气象要素的变化特征

利用塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中站2006年4月10日一次强沙尘暴前后连续5天地面、土壤中、以及80 m高塔站梯度观测系统的各气象要素资料,详细地分析了该沙尘暴前后不同沙尘天气日各要素的变化特征.结果表明:这次沙尘暴是南疆气温持续回暖、热低压强烈发展、沙尘暴和浮尘天气持续时间长的一次南疆东灌型强沙尘暴过程.温、湿廓线在沙尘暴过境时,因强湍流交换,整个近地层大气基本上处于中性层结,沙尘暴日为降温增湿的过程;沙尘暴日前后大气层结发生了转变,破坏了晴天正常的逆温、逆湿结构.风速廓线在沙尘暴日满足对数律关系,而在沙尘暴日前后的天气里,风速较小,规律性差.沙尘暴过境时0O cm和5 cm地温变化趋势与1.5 m气温相似,过境前1.5 m气温比5 cm地温达到峰值的时间约提前1～2 h,过境后反而又滞后1～2 h.     

南疆沙漠腹地大气边界层气象要素廓线分析

利用塔中80m观测塔梯度系统采集的2006年8月、10月和2007年1月、4月的风、温度、湿度资料,结合气象站的同步气象资料,对南疆沙漠腹地近地层四季的晴天平均风速、温度、湿度廓线分布特征进行分析。结果表明,晴天平均风速白天随高度升高增加缓慢,夜间较快,低层风速白天比夜间大,高层则白天比夜间小,春夏季风速较大;四季平均温度廓线表现为夜间辐射型、早上过渡型、白天日射型和傍晚过渡型等四种类型,早、晚过渡时间四季各有不同,日最低、最高温度出现时间四季则相差不大;冬季夜间比湿随高度升高而增大,整个80m近地层表现为逆湿状态,其他季节逆湿一般出现在0．5—1m、1～2m、32—47m、63—80m等4个层次上,各逆湿层出现的时间各季节有所差异。